Spatial–temporal distribution of incidence, mortality, and case-fatality ratios of coronavirus disease 2019 and its social determinants in Brazilian municipalities
Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic caused impact on public health worldwide. Brazil gained prominence during the pandemic due to the magnitude of disease. This study aimed to evaluate the spatial–temporal dynamics of incidence, mortality, and case fatality of COVID-19 and its associations with social de...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-31046-4 |
| _version_ | 1827984641485701120 |
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| author | Carlos Eduardo Raymundo Marcella Cini Oliveira Tatiana de Araujo Eleuterio Édnei César de Arruda Santos Junior Marcele Gonçalves da Silva Suzana Rosa André Ana Inês Sousa Roberto de Andrade Medronho |
| author_facet | Carlos Eduardo Raymundo Marcella Cini Oliveira Tatiana de Araujo Eleuterio Édnei César de Arruda Santos Junior Marcele Gonçalves da Silva Suzana Rosa André Ana Inês Sousa Roberto de Andrade Medronho |
| author_sort | Carlos Eduardo Raymundo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic caused impact on public health worldwide. Brazil gained prominence during the pandemic due to the magnitude of disease. This study aimed to evaluate the spatial–temporal dynamics of incidence, mortality, and case fatality of COVID-19 and its associations with social determinants in Brazilian municipalities and epidemiological week. We modeled incidence, mortality, and case fatality rates using spatial–temporal Bayesian model. “Bolsa Família Programme” (BOLSAFAM) and “proportional mortality ratio” (PMR) were inversely associated with the standardized incidence ratio (SIR), while “health insurance coverage” (HEALTHINSUR) and “Gini index” were directly associated with the SIR. BOLSAFAM and PMR were inversely associated with the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and standardized case fatality ratio (SCFR). The highest proportion of excess risk for SIR and the SMR started in the North, expanding to the Midwest, Southeast, and South regions. The highest proportion of excess risk for the SCFR outcome was observed in some municipalities in the North region and in the other Brazilian regions. The COVID-19 incidence and mortality in municipalities that most benefited from the cash transfer programme and with better social development decreased. The municipalities with a higher proportion of non-whites had a higher risk of becoming ill and dying from the disease. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:01:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-37585ffe0ee848e0b4b28f3c5f1253aa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:01:31Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-37585ffe0ee848e0b4b28f3c5f1253aa2023-03-22T10:54:53ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-03-0113111110.1038/s41598-023-31046-4Spatial–temporal distribution of incidence, mortality, and case-fatality ratios of coronavirus disease 2019 and its social determinants in Brazilian municipalitiesCarlos Eduardo Raymundo0Marcella Cini Oliveira1Tatiana de Araujo Eleuterio2Édnei César de Arruda Santos Junior3Marcele Gonçalves da Silva4Suzana Rosa André5Ana Inês Sousa6Roberto de Andrade Medronho7Instituto de Estudos em Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroFaculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroInstituto de Estudos em Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroInstituto de Estudos em Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroFaculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroEscola de Enfermagem Anna Nery, Universidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroEscola de Enfermagem Anna Nery, Universidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroInstituto de Estudos em Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroAbstract The COVID-19 pandemic caused impact on public health worldwide. Brazil gained prominence during the pandemic due to the magnitude of disease. This study aimed to evaluate the spatial–temporal dynamics of incidence, mortality, and case fatality of COVID-19 and its associations with social determinants in Brazilian municipalities and epidemiological week. We modeled incidence, mortality, and case fatality rates using spatial–temporal Bayesian model. “Bolsa Família Programme” (BOLSAFAM) and “proportional mortality ratio” (PMR) were inversely associated with the standardized incidence ratio (SIR), while “health insurance coverage” (HEALTHINSUR) and “Gini index” were directly associated with the SIR. BOLSAFAM and PMR were inversely associated with the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and standardized case fatality ratio (SCFR). The highest proportion of excess risk for SIR and the SMR started in the North, expanding to the Midwest, Southeast, and South regions. The highest proportion of excess risk for the SCFR outcome was observed in some municipalities in the North region and in the other Brazilian regions. The COVID-19 incidence and mortality in municipalities that most benefited from the cash transfer programme and with better social development decreased. The municipalities with a higher proportion of non-whites had a higher risk of becoming ill and dying from the disease.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-31046-4 |
| spellingShingle | Carlos Eduardo Raymundo Marcella Cini Oliveira Tatiana de Araujo Eleuterio Édnei César de Arruda Santos Junior Marcele Gonçalves da Silva Suzana Rosa André Ana Inês Sousa Roberto de Andrade Medronho Spatial–temporal distribution of incidence, mortality, and case-fatality ratios of coronavirus disease 2019 and its social determinants in Brazilian municipalities Scientific Reports |
| title | Spatial–temporal distribution of incidence, mortality, and case-fatality ratios of coronavirus disease 2019 and its social determinants in Brazilian municipalities |
| title_full | Spatial–temporal distribution of incidence, mortality, and case-fatality ratios of coronavirus disease 2019 and its social determinants in Brazilian municipalities |
| title_fullStr | Spatial–temporal distribution of incidence, mortality, and case-fatality ratios of coronavirus disease 2019 and its social determinants in Brazilian municipalities |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatial–temporal distribution of incidence, mortality, and case-fatality ratios of coronavirus disease 2019 and its social determinants in Brazilian municipalities |
| title_short | Spatial–temporal distribution of incidence, mortality, and case-fatality ratios of coronavirus disease 2019 and its social determinants in Brazilian municipalities |
| title_sort | spatial temporal distribution of incidence mortality and case fatality ratios of coronavirus disease 2019 and its social determinants in brazilian municipalities |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-31046-4 |
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