Research on Ship Collision Probability Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and Bi-LSTM
The efficiency and safety of maritime traffic in a given area can be measured by analyzing traffic density and ship collision probability. Maritime traffic density is the number of ships passing through a given area in a given period of time. It can be measured using vessel tracking systems, such as...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/10/8/1124 |
| _version_ | 1827617845220999168 |
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| author | Srđan Vukša Pero Vidan Mihaela Bukljaš Stjepan Pavić |
| author_facet | Srđan Vukša Pero Vidan Mihaela Bukljaš Stjepan Pavić |
| author_sort | Srđan Vukša |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The efficiency and safety of maritime traffic in a given area can be measured by analyzing traffic density and ship collision probability. Maritime traffic density is the number of ships passing through a given area in a given period of time. It can be measured using vessel tracking systems, such as the Automatic Identification System (AIS). The information provided by AIS is real-time data designed to improve maritime safety. However, the AIS data can also be used for scientific research purposes to improve maritime safety by developing predictive models for collisions in a research area. This article proposes a ship collision probability estimation model based on Monte Carlo simulation (MC) and bidirectional long short-term memory neural network (Bi-LSTM) for the maritime region of Split. The proposed model includes the processing of AIS data, the verification of AIS data, the determination of ports and ship routes, MC and the collision probability, the Bi-LSTM learning process based on MC, the ship collision probability for new or existing routes, and the traffic density. The results of MC, i.e., traffic/vessel route and density, and collision probability for the study area can be used for Bi-LSTM training with the aim of estimating ship collision probability. This article presents the first part of research that includes MC in detail, followed by a preliminary result based on one day of processed AIS data used to simulate MC and propose a model architecture that implements Bi-LSTM for ship collision probability estimation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T09:55:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3817517d619f4c6bac9444c14ffb6288 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-1312 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T09:55:11Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-3817517d619f4c6bac9444c14ffb62882023-12-01T23:51:52ZengMDPI AGJournal of Marine Science and Engineering2077-13122022-08-01108112410.3390/jmse10081124Research on Ship Collision Probability Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and Bi-LSTMSrđan Vukša0Pero Vidan1Mihaela Bukljaš2Stjepan Pavić3Faculty of Maritimes Studies, University of Split, 21000 Split, CroatiaFaculty of Maritimes Studies, University of Split, 21000 Split, CroatiaFaculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, University of Zagreb, 10000 Zagreb, CroatiaDepartment of Physics and Chemistry, Faculty of Science, University of Split, 21000 Split, CroatiaThe efficiency and safety of maritime traffic in a given area can be measured by analyzing traffic density and ship collision probability. Maritime traffic density is the number of ships passing through a given area in a given period of time. It can be measured using vessel tracking systems, such as the Automatic Identification System (AIS). The information provided by AIS is real-time data designed to improve maritime safety. However, the AIS data can also be used for scientific research purposes to improve maritime safety by developing predictive models for collisions in a research area. This article proposes a ship collision probability estimation model based on Monte Carlo simulation (MC) and bidirectional long short-term memory neural network (Bi-LSTM) for the maritime region of Split. The proposed model includes the processing of AIS data, the verification of AIS data, the determination of ports and ship routes, MC and the collision probability, the Bi-LSTM learning process based on MC, the ship collision probability for new or existing routes, and the traffic density. The results of MC, i.e., traffic/vessel route and density, and collision probability for the study area can be used for Bi-LSTM training with the aim of estimating ship collision probability. This article presents the first part of research that includes MC in detail, followed by a preliminary result based on one day of processed AIS data used to simulate MC and propose a model architecture that implements Bi-LSTM for ship collision probability estimation.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/10/8/1124automatic identification system (AIS)AIS data processingcollision probabilitytraffic density modelingMonte Carlo simulationbidirectional long short-term memory neural network (Bi-LSTM) |
| spellingShingle | Srđan Vukša Pero Vidan Mihaela Bukljaš Stjepan Pavić Research on Ship Collision Probability Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and Bi-LSTM Journal of Marine Science and Engineering automatic identification system (AIS) AIS data processing collision probability traffic density modeling Monte Carlo simulation bidirectional long short-term memory neural network (Bi-LSTM) |
| title | Research on Ship Collision Probability Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and Bi-LSTM |
| title_full | Research on Ship Collision Probability Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and Bi-LSTM |
| title_fullStr | Research on Ship Collision Probability Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and Bi-LSTM |
| title_full_unstemmed | Research on Ship Collision Probability Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and Bi-LSTM |
| title_short | Research on Ship Collision Probability Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and Bi-LSTM |
| title_sort | research on ship collision probability model based on monte carlo simulation and bi lstm |
| topic | automatic identification system (AIS) AIS data processing collision probability traffic density modeling Monte Carlo simulation bidirectional long short-term memory neural network (Bi-LSTM) |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/10/8/1124 |
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