The impact of future climate on orange-fleshed sweet potato production in arid areas of Northern Ethiopia. A case study in Afar region
Sweet potato is in its introductory phase as a food-based approach to alleviate malnutrition in the Afar region, where, due to climate change, agricultural drought impedes crop production. This study assesses the impact of climate change on orange-fleshed sweet potato (OFSP) fresh storage root yield...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Heliyon |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023044961 |
| _version_ | 1797771553438433280 |
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| author | Gloria Peace Lamaro Yemane Tsehaye Atkilt Girma Damasco Rubangakene |
| author_facet | Gloria Peace Lamaro Yemane Tsehaye Atkilt Girma Damasco Rubangakene |
| author_sort | Gloria Peace Lamaro |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Sweet potato is in its introductory phase as a food-based approach to alleviate malnutrition in the Afar region, where, due to climate change, agricultural drought impedes crop production. This study assesses the impact of climate change on orange-fleshed sweet potato (OFSP) fresh storage root yield production over the Afar region using the Aqua Crop model. This model was fed with daily rainfall and minimum and maximum temperature datasets, for the baseline climate (1980–2009) as well as future (2010–2099) climate projections under two representative concentration pathways: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These datasets were statistically downscaled from twenty (20) general circulation models that are used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The impact of climate change on sweet potatoes was assessed by comparing the change in average sweet potato yields in the baseline climate condition against the average of simulated sweet potato yields in the Near-term (NT) (2010–2039), Mid-term (MT) (2040–2069), and End-term (ET) (2070–2099) under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5. Simulation shows increased future storage root yield production for NT (3.23%), MT (3.90%), and ET (7.25%) under RCP 4.5 and MT (5.88%) and NT (6.71%) from the observed yield data (32.0 t/ha) except for Near-term (−9.59%) under RCP 8.5. Similarly, projected climate shows increase in temperature Tmax (0.93–4.10 °C), Tmin (0.88–4.54 °C) and precipitation (28.9–37.8%) under both RCPs which will favor sweet potato yield production increase in near-term, mid-term reaching climax in end-term. Simulation with planting dates shows that normal planting date (July 01), gives better yields than early (April 22) or late planting (01 August). This finding may perhaps be used as preliminary data in adoption and upscaling of orange-fleshed sweet potato in Afar region. |
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| id | doaj.art-38207a1b4ca54a9bb29e6aa63db4f0b0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T21:39:17Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj.art-38207a1b4ca54a9bb29e6aa63db4f0b02023-07-27T05:56:23ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402023-07-0197e17288The impact of future climate on orange-fleshed sweet potato production in arid areas of Northern Ethiopia. A case study in Afar region Gloria Peace Lamaro0Yemane Tsehaye1Atkilt Girma2Damasco Rubangakene3Institute of Climate and Society, Mekelle University, P. O. Box 231, Mekelle, Ethiopia; Corresponding authorInstitute of Climate and Society, Mekelle University, P. O. Box 231, Mekelle, Ethiopia.College of Dryland Agriculture and Natural Resources, Department of Dryland Crops and Horticultural Sciences. Mekelle University, P. O. Box 231, Mekelle, EthiopiaInstitute of Climate and Society, Mekelle University, P. O. Box 231, Mekelle, Ethiopia; College of Dryland Agriculture and Natural Resources, Department of Land Resources Management and Environmental Protection (LaRMEP). Mekelle University, P. O. Box 231, Mekelle, EthiopiaInstitute of Climate and Society, Mekelle University, P. O. Box 231, Mekelle, EthiopiaSweet potato is in its introductory phase as a food-based approach to alleviate malnutrition in the Afar region, where, due to climate change, agricultural drought impedes crop production. This study assesses the impact of climate change on orange-fleshed sweet potato (OFSP) fresh storage root yield production over the Afar region using the Aqua Crop model. This model was fed with daily rainfall and minimum and maximum temperature datasets, for the baseline climate (1980–2009) as well as future (2010–2099) climate projections under two representative concentration pathways: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These datasets were statistically downscaled from twenty (20) general circulation models that are used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The impact of climate change on sweet potatoes was assessed by comparing the change in average sweet potato yields in the baseline climate condition against the average of simulated sweet potato yields in the Near-term (NT) (2010–2039), Mid-term (MT) (2040–2069), and End-term (ET) (2070–2099) under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5. Simulation shows increased future storage root yield production for NT (3.23%), MT (3.90%), and ET (7.25%) under RCP 4.5 and MT (5.88%) and NT (6.71%) from the observed yield data (32.0 t/ha) except for Near-term (−9.59%) under RCP 8.5. Similarly, projected climate shows increase in temperature Tmax (0.93–4.10 °C), Tmin (0.88–4.54 °C) and precipitation (28.9–37.8%) under both RCPs which will favor sweet potato yield production increase in near-term, mid-term reaching climax in end-term. Simulation with planting dates shows that normal planting date (July 01), gives better yields than early (April 22) or late planting (01 August). This finding may perhaps be used as preliminary data in adoption and upscaling of orange-fleshed sweet potato in Afar region.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023044961Time segmentRepresentative concentration pathwaysClimate projectionSweet potato storage root yield simulationAqua cropClimate change |
| spellingShingle | Gloria Peace Lamaro Yemane Tsehaye Atkilt Girma Damasco Rubangakene The impact of future climate on orange-fleshed sweet potato production in arid areas of Northern Ethiopia. A case study in Afar region Heliyon Time segment Representative concentration pathways Climate projection Sweet potato storage root yield simulation Aqua crop Climate change |
| title | The impact of future climate on orange-fleshed sweet potato production in arid areas of Northern Ethiopia. A case study in Afar region |
| title_full | The impact of future climate on orange-fleshed sweet potato production in arid areas of Northern Ethiopia. A case study in Afar region |
| title_fullStr | The impact of future climate on orange-fleshed sweet potato production in arid areas of Northern Ethiopia. A case study in Afar region |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of future climate on orange-fleshed sweet potato production in arid areas of Northern Ethiopia. A case study in Afar region |
| title_short | The impact of future climate on orange-fleshed sweet potato production in arid areas of Northern Ethiopia. A case study in Afar region |
| title_sort | impact of future climate on orange fleshed sweet potato production in arid areas of northern ethiopia a case study in afar region |
| topic | Time segment Representative concentration pathways Climate projection Sweet potato storage root yield simulation Aqua crop Climate change |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023044961 |
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