Different responses of Japanese encephalitis to weather variables among eight climate subtypes in Gansu, China, 2005–2019
Abstract This study evaluated epidemic temporal aspects of Japanese encephalitis (JE) and investigated the weather threshold of JE response across eight climate subtypes between 2005 and 2019 in Gansu Province, China. Epidemiological data were collected from the China Information System for Disease...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-02-01
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| Series: | BMC Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-023-08074-6 |
| _version_ | 1797865462116122624 |
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| author | Ruifen Li Xiaohong Zhao Yu Tian Yanjun Shi Xueyan Gu Shuang Wang Rui Zhang Jing An Li Su Xuxia Wang |
| author_facet | Ruifen Li Xiaohong Zhao Yu Tian Yanjun Shi Xueyan Gu Shuang Wang Rui Zhang Jing An Li Su Xuxia Wang |
| author_sort | Ruifen Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study evaluated epidemic temporal aspects of Japanese encephalitis (JE) and investigated the weather threshold of JE response across eight climate subtypes between 2005 and 2019 in Gansu Province, China. Epidemiological data were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). Three epidemic temporal indices [frequency index (α), duration index (β), and intensity index (γ)] were adopted for the comparison of epidemic features among different climate subtypes. In addition, the local indicators of spatial association (LISA) technique was used to detect the hot-spot areas. The category and regression tree (CART) model was used to detect the response threshold of weather variables in hot-spot areas across climate subtypes. Among eight climate subtypes in Gansu, in most hot-spot areas (i.e., high–high clusters), α, β, and γ were detected in the climate subtypes of subtropical winter dry (Cwa), temperate oceanic continental (Cwb), and continental winter dry (Dwa and Dwb). According to the CART analysis, a minimum monthly temperature is required for Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) transmission, with different threshold values among the climatic subtypes. In temperate climate zones (Cwa and Cwb), this threshold is 19 °C at a 1-month lag. It is lower in continental winter dry climate zones: 18 °C in Dwa (snow climate, dry winter, and hot summer) and 16 °C in Dwb (snow climate, dry winter, and warm summer). Additionally, some areas of the areas with temperate arid (BWk and BSk) had the first JE cases. Further studies to detect whether the climate change influence the JEV’s distribution in Gansu Province are needed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:08:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-38266206f7294b49bd46c1c4764272c0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2334 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:08:16Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-38266206f7294b49bd46c1c4764272c02023-03-22T10:32:28ZengBMCBMC Infectious Diseases1471-23342023-02-0123111110.1186/s12879-023-08074-6Different responses of Japanese encephalitis to weather variables among eight climate subtypes in Gansu, China, 2005–2019Ruifen Li0Xiaohong Zhao1Yu Tian2Yanjun Shi3Xueyan Gu4Shuang Wang5Rui Zhang6Jing An7Li Su8Xuxia Wang9Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Institute of Health EducationGansu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Institute of Health EducationGansu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Institute of Health EducationSchool of Public Health, Lanzhou UniversitySchool of Public Health, Institute of Maternal, Child and Adolescent Health, Lanzhou UniversitySchool of Public Health, Institute of Maternal, Child and Adolescent Health, Lanzhou UniversitySchool of Public Health, Institute of Maternal, Child and Adolescent Health, Lanzhou UniversityGansu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Institute of Immunization ProgramSchool of Public Health, Institute of Maternal, Child and Adolescent Health, Lanzhou UniversityGansu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Institute of Health EducationAbstract This study evaluated epidemic temporal aspects of Japanese encephalitis (JE) and investigated the weather threshold of JE response across eight climate subtypes between 2005 and 2019 in Gansu Province, China. Epidemiological data were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). Three epidemic temporal indices [frequency index (α), duration index (β), and intensity index (γ)] were adopted for the comparison of epidemic features among different climate subtypes. In addition, the local indicators of spatial association (LISA) technique was used to detect the hot-spot areas. The category and regression tree (CART) model was used to detect the response threshold of weather variables in hot-spot areas across climate subtypes. Among eight climate subtypes in Gansu, in most hot-spot areas (i.e., high–high clusters), α, β, and γ were detected in the climate subtypes of subtropical winter dry (Cwa), temperate oceanic continental (Cwb), and continental winter dry (Dwa and Dwb). According to the CART analysis, a minimum monthly temperature is required for Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) transmission, with different threshold values among the climatic subtypes. In temperate climate zones (Cwa and Cwb), this threshold is 19 °C at a 1-month lag. It is lower in continental winter dry climate zones: 18 °C in Dwa (snow climate, dry winter, and hot summer) and 16 °C in Dwb (snow climate, dry winter, and warm summer). Additionally, some areas of the areas with temperate arid (BWk and BSk) had the first JE cases. Further studies to detect whether the climate change influence the JEV’s distribution in Gansu Province are needed.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-023-08074-6Japanese encephalitisCARTKöppen–GeigerClimate conditions |
| spellingShingle | Ruifen Li Xiaohong Zhao Yu Tian Yanjun Shi Xueyan Gu Shuang Wang Rui Zhang Jing An Li Su Xuxia Wang Different responses of Japanese encephalitis to weather variables among eight climate subtypes in Gansu, China, 2005–2019 BMC Infectious Diseases Japanese encephalitis CART Köppen–Geiger Climate conditions |
| title | Different responses of Japanese encephalitis to weather variables among eight climate subtypes in Gansu, China, 2005–2019 |
| title_full | Different responses of Japanese encephalitis to weather variables among eight climate subtypes in Gansu, China, 2005–2019 |
| title_fullStr | Different responses of Japanese encephalitis to weather variables among eight climate subtypes in Gansu, China, 2005–2019 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Different responses of Japanese encephalitis to weather variables among eight climate subtypes in Gansu, China, 2005–2019 |
| title_short | Different responses of Japanese encephalitis to weather variables among eight climate subtypes in Gansu, China, 2005–2019 |
| title_sort | different responses of japanese encephalitis to weather variables among eight climate subtypes in gansu china 2005 2019 |
| topic | Japanese encephalitis CART Köppen–Geiger Climate conditions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-023-08074-6 |
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