El Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time
Abstract The 2014–2015 “Monster”/“Super” El Niño failed to be predicted one year earlier due to the growing importance of a new type of El Niño, El Niño Modoki, which reportedly has much lower forecast skill with the classical models. In this study, we show that, so far as of today, this new El Niño...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2021-09-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97111-y |
| _version_ | 1818683748746526720 |
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| author | X. San Liang Fen Xu Yineng Rong Renhe Zhang Xu Tang Feng Zhang |
| author_facet | X. San Liang Fen Xu Yineng Rong Renhe Zhang Xu Tang Feng Zhang |
| author_sort | X. San Liang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The 2014–2015 “Monster”/“Super” El Niño failed to be predicted one year earlier due to the growing importance of a new type of El Niño, El Niño Modoki, which reportedly has much lower forecast skill with the classical models. In this study, we show that, so far as of today, this new El Niño actually can be mostly predicted at a lead time of more than 10 years. This is achieved through tracing the predictability source with an information flow-based causality analysis, which has been rigorously established from first principles during the past 16 years (e.g., Liang in Phys Rev E 94:052201, 2016). We show that the information flowing from the solar activity 45 years ago to the sea surface temperature results in a causal structure resembling the El Niño Modoki mode. Based on this, a multidimensional system is constructed out of the sunspot number series with time delays of 22–50 years. The first 25 principal components are then taken as the predictors to fulfill the prediction, which through causal AI based on the Liang–Kleeman information flow reproduces rather accurately the events thus far 12 years in advance. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T10:39:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-382a56d14b4c4b7c8a28b5c15e4757f1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T10:39:40Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-382a56d14b4c4b7c8a28b5c15e4757f12022-12-21T21:52:16ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222021-09-0111111410.1038/s41598-021-97111-yEl Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of timeX. San Liang0Fen Xu1Yineng Rong2Renhe Zhang3Xu Tang4Feng Zhang5Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan UniversityNanjing Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamical Studies, Nanjing Institute of MeteorologyNanjing Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamical Studies, Nanjing Institute of MeteorologyDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan UniversityAbstract The 2014–2015 “Monster”/“Super” El Niño failed to be predicted one year earlier due to the growing importance of a new type of El Niño, El Niño Modoki, which reportedly has much lower forecast skill with the classical models. In this study, we show that, so far as of today, this new El Niño actually can be mostly predicted at a lead time of more than 10 years. This is achieved through tracing the predictability source with an information flow-based causality analysis, which has been rigorously established from first principles during the past 16 years (e.g., Liang in Phys Rev E 94:052201, 2016). We show that the information flowing from the solar activity 45 years ago to the sea surface temperature results in a causal structure resembling the El Niño Modoki mode. Based on this, a multidimensional system is constructed out of the sunspot number series with time delays of 22–50 years. The first 25 principal components are then taken as the predictors to fulfill the prediction, which through causal AI based on the Liang–Kleeman information flow reproduces rather accurately the events thus far 12 years in advance.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97111-y |
| spellingShingle | X. San Liang Fen Xu Yineng Rong Renhe Zhang Xu Tang Feng Zhang El Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time Scientific Reports |
| title | El Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time |
| title_full | El Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time |
| title_fullStr | El Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time |
| title_full_unstemmed | El Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time |
| title_short | El Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time |
| title_sort | el nino modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97111-y |
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