Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting
Seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s. However, present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders: current operational products are mainly basin-scale informatio...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603223000413 |
| _version_ | 1827631693533544448 |
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| author | Yuhei Takaya Louis-Philippe Caron Eric Blake François Bonnardot Nicolas Bruneau Joanne Camp Johnny Chan Paul Gregory Jhordanne J. Jones Namyoung Kang Philip J. Klotzbach Yuriy Kuleshov Marie-Dominique Leroux Julia F. Lockwood Hiroyuki Murakami Akio Nishimura Dushmanta R. Pattanaik Tom J. Philp Yohan Ruprich-Robert Ralf Toumi Frédéric Vitart Seonghee Won Ruifen Zhan |
| author_facet | Yuhei Takaya Louis-Philippe Caron Eric Blake François Bonnardot Nicolas Bruneau Joanne Camp Johnny Chan Paul Gregory Jhordanne J. Jones Namyoung Kang Philip J. Klotzbach Yuriy Kuleshov Marie-Dominique Leroux Julia F. Lockwood Hiroyuki Murakami Akio Nishimura Dushmanta R. Pattanaik Tom J. Philp Yohan Ruprich-Robert Ralf Toumi Frédéric Vitart Seonghee Won Ruifen Zhan |
| author_sort | Yuhei Takaya |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s. However, present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders: current operational products are mainly basin-scale information, while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision making. To fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward, this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. In particular, this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence, and multi-annual TC predictions. We also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic, Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's expectations. New knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:25:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-384a180bb7484a788879a75df5ad9f27 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2225-6032 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:25:38Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
| spelling | doaj.art-384a180bb7484a788879a75df5ad9f272023-11-28T07:25:59ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2225-60322023-09-01123182199Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecastingYuhei Takaya0Louis-Philippe Caron1Eric Blake2François Bonnardot3Nicolas Bruneau4Joanne Camp5Johnny Chan6Paul Gregory7Jhordanne J. Jones8Namyoung Kang9Philip J. Klotzbach10Yuriy Kuleshov11Marie-Dominique Leroux12Julia F. Lockwood13Hiroyuki Murakami14Akio Nishimura15Dushmanta R. Pattanaik16Tom J. Philp17Yohan Ruprich-Robert18Ralf Toumi19Frédéric Vitart20Seonghee Won21Ruifen Zhan22Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki, JapanOuranos, Montreal, Canada; Corresponding author.National Hurricane Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Miami, USAMétéo-France, Direction Interrégionale pour l'Océan Indien, Saint-Denis, de La Réunion, FranceReask, London, UKBureau of Meteorology, Victoria, AustraliaCity University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center, Shanghai, China; Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, ChinaBureau of Meteorology, Victoria, AustraliaDepartment of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, USA; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USADepartment of Geography, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USABureau of Meteorology, Victoria, Australia; Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University, Melbourne, AustraliaMétéo-France, Direction Interrégionale pour l'Océan Indien, Saint-Denis, de La Réunion, FranceMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA; National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, USAJapan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, JapanIndia Meteorological Department, New Delhi, IndiaMaximum Information, London, UKBarcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, SpainDepartment of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UKEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UKKorea Meteorological Administration, Jeju, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, ChinaSeasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s. However, present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders: current operational products are mainly basin-scale information, while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision making. To fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward, this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. In particular, this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence, and multi-annual TC predictions. We also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic, Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's expectations. New knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603223000413Tropical cyclonesSeasonal forecastingClimate services |
| spellingShingle | Yuhei Takaya Louis-Philippe Caron Eric Blake François Bonnardot Nicolas Bruneau Joanne Camp Johnny Chan Paul Gregory Jhordanne J. Jones Namyoung Kang Philip J. Klotzbach Yuriy Kuleshov Marie-Dominique Leroux Julia F. Lockwood Hiroyuki Murakami Akio Nishimura Dushmanta R. Pattanaik Tom J. Philp Yohan Ruprich-Robert Ralf Toumi Frédéric Vitart Seonghee Won Ruifen Zhan Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Tropical cyclones Seasonal forecasting Climate services |
| title | Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting |
| title_full | Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting |
| title_fullStr | Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting |
| title_short | Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting |
| title_sort | recent advances in seasonal and multi annual tropical cyclone forecasting |
| topic | Tropical cyclones Seasonal forecasting Climate services |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603223000413 |
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