Power law scaling and country-level centralization of global agricultural production and trade
Global food production and international trade are rapidly expanding and drive increasing agricultural globalization and specialization. Following production patterns, network properties and added-value chains, exportable surpluses of countries can offset food and feed deficits in other countries. H...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac54ca |
| _version_ | 1797747066400669696 |
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| author | Marie-Cécile Dupas José Halloy Petros Chatzimpiros |
| author_facet | Marie-Cécile Dupas José Halloy Petros Chatzimpiros |
| author_sort | Marie-Cécile Dupas |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Global food production and international trade are rapidly expanding and drive increasing agricultural globalization and specialization. Following production patterns, network properties and added-value chains, exportable surpluses of countries can offset food and feed deficits in other countries. However, production and trade patterns are barely addressed in the scientific literature as two interactive components of global agriculture. Integrated analysis of the temporal dynamics and distribution patterns of production and trade among countries can help addressing future food security challenges in view of ongoing trends. Here, we analyse the interdependent patterns of global agricultural production and trade from 1986 to 2016. We classify total production and trade mass into six product categories—cereals, oilcrops, meat, fruits and vegetables, coffee and cocoa. We estimate reexports in global trade by assessing mass balances of production, imports and exports per country. We show that global trade and reexports increase exponentially faster than production and that production and trade are highly centralized among a small number of countries. For most agricultural categories, the centralization of flows has increased in time for production and net exports, and has decreased for net imports and reexports. Accordingly, a growing number of deficient countries are sustained by a decreasing number of top-producing countries. In parallel, reexport routes are increasingly dominated by long-industrialized countries besides the increase in time in the number of reexporting countries. We discuss the interdependencies between global agricultural production and trade patterns. We highlight the drivers and implications of the observed trends for food security challenges. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:45:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-386bb9455ce745799b7ca752bc2d434b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:45:51Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-386bb9455ce745799b7ca752bc2d434b2023-08-09T15:26:14ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117303402210.1088/1748-9326/ac54caPower law scaling and country-level centralization of global agricultural production and tradeMarie-Cécile Dupas0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8769-2243José Halloy1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1555-2484Petros Chatzimpiros2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7696-7344Université de Paris, LIED , CNRS UMR 8236, F-75013 Paris, FranceUniversité de Paris, LIED , CNRS UMR 8236, F-75013 Paris, FranceUniversité de Paris, LIED , CNRS UMR 8236, F-75013 Paris, FranceGlobal food production and international trade are rapidly expanding and drive increasing agricultural globalization and specialization. Following production patterns, network properties and added-value chains, exportable surpluses of countries can offset food and feed deficits in other countries. However, production and trade patterns are barely addressed in the scientific literature as two interactive components of global agriculture. Integrated analysis of the temporal dynamics and distribution patterns of production and trade among countries can help addressing future food security challenges in view of ongoing trends. Here, we analyse the interdependent patterns of global agricultural production and trade from 1986 to 2016. We classify total production and trade mass into six product categories—cereals, oilcrops, meat, fruits and vegetables, coffee and cocoa. We estimate reexports in global trade by assessing mass balances of production, imports and exports per country. We show that global trade and reexports increase exponentially faster than production and that production and trade are highly centralized among a small number of countries. For most agricultural categories, the centralization of flows has increased in time for production and net exports, and has decreased for net imports and reexports. Accordingly, a growing number of deficient countries are sustained by a decreasing number of top-producing countries. In parallel, reexport routes are increasingly dominated by long-industrialized countries besides the increase in time in the number of reexporting countries. We discuss the interdependencies between global agricultural production and trade patterns. We highlight the drivers and implications of the observed trends for food security challenges.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac54caglobal agricultureproduction and tradereexportsspecialisationfood security |
| spellingShingle | Marie-Cécile Dupas José Halloy Petros Chatzimpiros Power law scaling and country-level centralization of global agricultural production and trade Environmental Research Letters global agriculture production and trade reexports specialisation food security |
| title | Power law scaling and country-level centralization of global agricultural production and trade |
| title_full | Power law scaling and country-level centralization of global agricultural production and trade |
| title_fullStr | Power law scaling and country-level centralization of global agricultural production and trade |
| title_full_unstemmed | Power law scaling and country-level centralization of global agricultural production and trade |
| title_short | Power law scaling and country-level centralization of global agricultural production and trade |
| title_sort | power law scaling and country level centralization of global agricultural production and trade |
| topic | global agriculture production and trade reexports specialisation food security |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac54ca |
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