Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding
The thawing of permafrost in the Arctic has led to an increase in coastal land loss, flooding, and ground subsidence, seriously threatening civil infrastructure and coastal communities. However, a lack of tools for synthetic hazard assessment of the Arctic coast has hindered effective response measu...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac |
| _version_ | 1797685492634877952 |
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| author | Ziyi Wang Ming Xiao Dmitry Nicolsky Vladimir Romanovsky Christopher McComb Louise Farquharson |
| author_facet | Ziyi Wang Ming Xiao Dmitry Nicolsky Vladimir Romanovsky Christopher McComb Louise Farquharson |
| author_sort | Ziyi Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The thawing of permafrost in the Arctic has led to an increase in coastal land loss, flooding, and ground subsidence, seriously threatening civil infrastructure and coastal communities. However, a lack of tools for synthetic hazard assessment of the Arctic coast has hindered effective response measures. We developed a holistic framework, the Arctic Coastal Hazard Index (ACHI), to assess the vulnerability of Arctic coasts to permafrost thawing, coastal erosion, and coastal flooding. We quantified the coastal permafrost thaw potential (PTP) through regional assessment of thaw subsidence using ground settlement index. The calculations of the ground settlement index involve utilizing projections of permafrost conditions, including future regional mean annual ground temperature, active layer thickness, and talik thickness. The predicted thaw subsidence was validated through a comparison with observed long-term subsidence data. The ACHI incorporates the PTP into seven physical and ecological variables for coastal hazard assessment: shoreline type, habitat, relief, wind exposure, wave exposure, surge potential, and sea-level rise. The coastal hazard assessment was conducted for each 1 km ^2 coastline of North Slope Borough, Alaska in the 2060s under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 forcing scenarios. The areas that are prone to coastal hazards were identified by mapping the distribution pattern of the ACHI. The calculated coastal hazards potential was subjected to validation by comparing it with the observed and historical long-term coastal erosion mean rates. This framework for Arctic coastal assessment may assist policy and decision-making for adaptation, mitigation strategies, and civil infrastructure planning. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T00:45:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-38749f712c2c4c89b3bfed4b05a42534 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T00:45:54Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-38749f712c2c4c89b3bfed4b05a425342023-09-14T16:06:00ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-01181010400310.1088/1748-9326/acf4acArctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and floodingZiyi Wang0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3382-7576Ming Xiao1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4791-0346Dmitry Nicolsky2Vladimir Romanovsky3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9515-2087Christopher McComb4Louise Farquharson5Graduate Student, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University , University Park, PA 16802, United States of AmericaProfessor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University , University Park, PA 16802, United States of AmericaResearch Associate Professor, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks , Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States of AmericaProfessor Emeritus, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks , Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States of America; Lead Scientist, Tumen State University , Tumen, RussiaAssociate Professor, Mechanical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University , Pittsburgh, PA 15213, United States of AmericaResearch Assistant Professor, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks , Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States of AmericaThe thawing of permafrost in the Arctic has led to an increase in coastal land loss, flooding, and ground subsidence, seriously threatening civil infrastructure and coastal communities. However, a lack of tools for synthetic hazard assessment of the Arctic coast has hindered effective response measures. We developed a holistic framework, the Arctic Coastal Hazard Index (ACHI), to assess the vulnerability of Arctic coasts to permafrost thawing, coastal erosion, and coastal flooding. We quantified the coastal permafrost thaw potential (PTP) through regional assessment of thaw subsidence using ground settlement index. The calculations of the ground settlement index involve utilizing projections of permafrost conditions, including future regional mean annual ground temperature, active layer thickness, and talik thickness. The predicted thaw subsidence was validated through a comparison with observed long-term subsidence data. The ACHI incorporates the PTP into seven physical and ecological variables for coastal hazard assessment: shoreline type, habitat, relief, wind exposure, wave exposure, surge potential, and sea-level rise. The coastal hazard assessment was conducted for each 1 km ^2 coastline of North Slope Borough, Alaska in the 2060s under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 forcing scenarios. The areas that are prone to coastal hazards were identified by mapping the distribution pattern of the ACHI. The calculated coastal hazards potential was subjected to validation by comparing it with the observed and historical long-term coastal erosion mean rates. This framework for Arctic coastal assessment may assist policy and decision-making for adaptation, mitigation strategies, and civil infrastructure planning.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4accoastal hazardsthaw subsidencehazard assessmentpermafrostNorthern Alaska |
| spellingShingle | Ziyi Wang Ming Xiao Dmitry Nicolsky Vladimir Romanovsky Christopher McComb Louise Farquharson Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding Environmental Research Letters coastal hazards thaw subsidence hazard assessment permafrost Northern Alaska |
| title | Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
| title_full | Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
| title_fullStr | Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
| title_full_unstemmed | Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
| title_short | Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
| title_sort | arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence coastal erosion and flooding |
| topic | coastal hazards thaw subsidence hazard assessment permafrost Northern Alaska |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac |
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