Application of a first-order method to estimate the failure probability of component subjected to thermal transients for optimization of design parameters
The Japan Atomic Energy Agency has been developing “Advanced Reactor Knowledge- and AI-aided Design Integration Approach through the whole plant lifecycle (ARKADIA)” to offer the best solutions for challenges in the design and operation of nuclear plants. A part of ARKADIA for design study, which in...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Mechanical Engineering Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/mej/10/4/10_23-00042/_pdf/-char/en |
| _version_ | 1797742232362549248 |
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| author | Satoshi OKAJIMA Takero MORI Norihiro KIKUCHI Masaaki TANAKA Masashi MIYAZAKI |
| author_facet | Satoshi OKAJIMA Takero MORI Norihiro KIKUCHI Masaaki TANAKA Masashi MIYAZAKI |
| author_sort | Satoshi OKAJIMA |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Japan Atomic Energy Agency has been developing “Advanced Reactor Knowledge- and AI-aided Design Integration Approach through the whole plant lifecycle (ARKADIA)” to offer the best solutions for challenges in the design and operation of nuclear plants. A part of ARKADIA for design study, which included design optimization of components, is named as ARKADIA-Design. In the development of ARKADIA-Design, we have been developing a process to automatically optimize design parameters of structural components subjected to various kinds of loads, including thermal transients. In this paper, we propose a simplified procedure to estimate the failure probability of components subjected to thermal transients for design optimization. An objective function of this optimization is defined on the basis of failure probability of the components, because failure probability can be commonly used as an indicator of component integrity for various mechanisms, and it helps future introductions of a risk-informed performance-based approach to component design. To enable the necessary number of estimations for design optimization with practical calculation time, we aimed to reduce the number of analyses required for one estimation. For this purpose, we adopted the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method as the estimation method for failure probability in the process of optimization. An orthogonal table in the experiment design method is utilized to define the conditions of the analyses for evaluation of the mean and variance of thermal transient stress, which are used as inputs in the FOSM method. The superposition of ramp responses is also utilized to evaluate the time history of thermal transient stress instead of finite element analysis. The proposed procedure was applied in a demonstration study to optimize the thickness of a cylindrical vessel subjected to thermal transients derived from shutdown. We confirmed that the procedure can evaluate the failure probability depending on the cylinder thickness with practical calculation time. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T14:38:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-38941b2d827b4a9ca83a478b77a76179 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2187-9745 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T14:38:01Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mechanical Engineering Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-38941b2d827b4a9ca83a478b77a761792023-08-17T02:40:07ZengThe Japan Society of Mechanical EngineersMechanical Engineering Journal2187-97452023-06-0110423-0004223-0004210.1299/mej.23-00042mejApplication of a first-order method to estimate the failure probability of component subjected to thermal transients for optimization of design parametersSatoshi OKAJIMA0Takero MORI1Norihiro KIKUCHI2Masaaki TANAKA3Masashi MIYAZAKI4Japan Atomic Energy AgencyJapan Atomic Energy AgencyJapan Atomic Energy AgencyJapan Atomic Energy AgencyJapan Atomic Energy AgencyThe Japan Atomic Energy Agency has been developing “Advanced Reactor Knowledge- and AI-aided Design Integration Approach through the whole plant lifecycle (ARKADIA)” to offer the best solutions for challenges in the design and operation of nuclear plants. A part of ARKADIA for design study, which included design optimization of components, is named as ARKADIA-Design. In the development of ARKADIA-Design, we have been developing a process to automatically optimize design parameters of structural components subjected to various kinds of loads, including thermal transients. In this paper, we propose a simplified procedure to estimate the failure probability of components subjected to thermal transients for design optimization. An objective function of this optimization is defined on the basis of failure probability of the components, because failure probability can be commonly used as an indicator of component integrity for various mechanisms, and it helps future introductions of a risk-informed performance-based approach to component design. To enable the necessary number of estimations for design optimization with practical calculation time, we aimed to reduce the number of analyses required for one estimation. For this purpose, we adopted the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method as the estimation method for failure probability in the process of optimization. An orthogonal table in the experiment design method is utilized to define the conditions of the analyses for evaluation of the mean and variance of thermal transient stress, which are used as inputs in the FOSM method. The superposition of ramp responses is also utilized to evaluate the time history of thermal transient stress instead of finite element analysis. The proposed procedure was applied in a demonstration study to optimize the thickness of a cylindrical vessel subjected to thermal transients derived from shutdown. We confirmed that the procedure can evaluate the failure probability depending on the cylinder thickness with practical calculation time.https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/mej/10/4/10_23-00042/_pdf/-char/ensodium-cooled fast reactorfirst-order second-moment methodreliability indexfailure probabilityorthogonal tablethermal transient stressdesign optimization |
| spellingShingle | Satoshi OKAJIMA Takero MORI Norihiro KIKUCHI Masaaki TANAKA Masashi MIYAZAKI Application of a first-order method to estimate the failure probability of component subjected to thermal transients for optimization of design parameters Mechanical Engineering Journal sodium-cooled fast reactor first-order second-moment method reliability index failure probability orthogonal table thermal transient stress design optimization |
| title | Application of a first-order method to estimate the failure probability of component subjected to thermal transients for optimization of design parameters |
| title_full | Application of a first-order method to estimate the failure probability of component subjected to thermal transients for optimization of design parameters |
| title_fullStr | Application of a first-order method to estimate the failure probability of component subjected to thermal transients for optimization of design parameters |
| title_full_unstemmed | Application of a first-order method to estimate the failure probability of component subjected to thermal transients for optimization of design parameters |
| title_short | Application of a first-order method to estimate the failure probability of component subjected to thermal transients for optimization of design parameters |
| title_sort | application of a first order method to estimate the failure probability of component subjected to thermal transients for optimization of design parameters |
| topic | sodium-cooled fast reactor first-order second-moment method reliability index failure probability orthogonal table thermal transient stress design optimization |
| url | https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/mej/10/4/10_23-00042/_pdf/-char/en |
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