Comparison of Different Methods of Predicting Iran\'s Economic Growth with an Emphasis on Dynamic Model Selection and Dynamic Model Averaging
In recent decades, due to the importance of future values of macroeconomic variables, a range of predicting methods and models has been studied and evaluated. The main purpose of this paper is to compare different methods of predicting Iran's economic growth using seasonal time series data duri...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
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Tarbiat Modares University
2020-12-01
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| Series: | پژوهشهای اقتصادی |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-38166-en.pdf |
| _version_ | 1827924869937889280 |
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| author | Teymour Mohammadi naser khiabani Javid Bahrami fatemeh fahimifar |
| author_facet | Teymour Mohammadi naser khiabani Javid Bahrami fatemeh fahimifar |
| author_sort | Teymour Mohammadi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In recent decades, due to the importance of future values of macroeconomic variables, a range of predicting methods and models has been studied and evaluated. The main purpose of this paper is to compare different methods of predicting Iran's economic growth using seasonal time series data during 1990-2017. To this end, economic growth is predicted using dynamic model averaging (DMA), dynamic model selection (DMS), BMA, BVAR, TVP and AR models in three prediction horizons (one, four and eight seasons). The models used in this study are categorized into three spectra, large-scale (including 112 variables in nine factor blocks), average-scale (including 10 variables) and univariate models. The results show that the predictions of DMS and DMA are more efficient than other traditional prediction. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T05:18:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-38ec509e6ad449d6b9efed6a999a3375 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1735-6768 2980-7832 |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T05:18:01Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | Tarbiat Modares University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | پژوهشهای اقتصادی |
| spelling | doaj.art-38ec509e6ad449d6b9efed6a999a33752023-06-15T20:24:52ZfasTarbiat Modares Universityپژوهشهای اقتصادی1735-67682980-78322020-12-0120493123Comparison of Different Methods of Predicting Iran\'s Economic Growth with an Emphasis on Dynamic Model Selection and Dynamic Model AveragingTeymour Mohammadi0naser khiabani1Javid Bahrami2fatemeh fahimifar3 Associate Professor of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University Associate Professor of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University Associate Professor of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University Ph.D Candidate of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University In recent decades, due to the importance of future values of macroeconomic variables, a range of predicting methods and models has been studied and evaluated. The main purpose of this paper is to compare different methods of predicting Iran's economic growth using seasonal time series data during 1990-2017. To this end, economic growth is predicted using dynamic model averaging (DMA), dynamic model selection (DMS), BMA, BVAR, TVP and AR models in three prediction horizons (one, four and eight seasons). The models used in this study are categorized into three spectra, large-scale (including 112 variables in nine factor blocks), average-scale (including 10 variables) and univariate models. The results show that the predictions of DMS and DMA are more efficient than other traditional prediction.http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-38166-en.pdfforecastingeconomic growthstate-space modelfactor modeldynamic model averaging |
| spellingShingle | Teymour Mohammadi naser khiabani Javid Bahrami fatemeh fahimifar Comparison of Different Methods of Predicting Iran\'s Economic Growth with an Emphasis on Dynamic Model Selection and Dynamic Model Averaging پژوهشهای اقتصادی forecasting economic growth state-space model factor model dynamic model averaging |
| title | Comparison of Different Methods of Predicting Iran\'s Economic Growth with an Emphasis on Dynamic Model Selection and Dynamic Model Averaging |
| title_full | Comparison of Different Methods of Predicting Iran\'s Economic Growth with an Emphasis on Dynamic Model Selection and Dynamic Model Averaging |
| title_fullStr | Comparison of Different Methods of Predicting Iran\'s Economic Growth with an Emphasis on Dynamic Model Selection and Dynamic Model Averaging |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparison of Different Methods of Predicting Iran\'s Economic Growth with an Emphasis on Dynamic Model Selection and Dynamic Model Averaging |
| title_short | Comparison of Different Methods of Predicting Iran\'s Economic Growth with an Emphasis on Dynamic Model Selection and Dynamic Model Averaging |
| title_sort | comparison of different methods of predicting iran s economic growth with an emphasis on dynamic model selection and dynamic model averaging |
| topic | forecasting economic growth state-space model factor model dynamic model averaging |
| url | http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-38166-en.pdf |
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