An approach to refining the ground meteorological observation stations for improving PM<sub>2.5</sub> forecasts in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region
<p>This paper investigates how to refine the ground meteorological observation network to greatly improve the PM<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2.5</sub></span> concentration forecasts by identifying sensitive areas for targeted observations that are associa...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2023-07-01
|
| Series: | Geoscientific Model Development |
| Online Access: | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/16/3827/2023/gmd-16-3827-2023.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797783223109943296 |
|---|---|
| author | L. Yang W. Duan W. Duan Z. Wang |
| author_facet | L. Yang W. Duan W. Duan Z. Wang |
| author_sort | L. Yang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>This paper investigates how to refine the ground meteorological observation network to greatly improve the PM<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2.5</sub></span> concentration forecasts by identifying sensitive areas for targeted observations that are associated with a total of 48 forecasts in eight heavy haze events during the years of 2016–2018 over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method is adopted to determine the sensitive area of the surface meteorological fields for each forecast, and a total of 48 CNOP-type errors are obtained including wind, temperature, and water vapor mixing ratio components. It is found that, although all the sensitive areas tend to locate within and/or around the BTH region, their specific distributions are dependent on the events and the start times of the forecasts. Based on these sensitive areas, the current ground meteorological stations within and around the BTH region are refined to form a cost-effective observation network, which makes the relevant PM<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2.5</sub></span> forecasts starting from different initial times for varying events assimilate fewer observations, but overall, it achieve the forecasting skill comparable to and even higher than that obtained by
assimilating all ground station observations. This network sheds light on the idea that some of the current ground stations within and around the BTH region are very useless for improving the PM<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2.5</sub></span> forecasts in the BTH region and can be greatly scattered to avoid unnecessary work.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T00:23:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-38f96be20dcb47ad9d2a262b9ad9c606 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1991-959X 1991-9603 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T00:23:00Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geoscientific Model Development |
| spelling | doaj.art-38f96be20dcb47ad9d2a262b9ad9c6062023-07-11T11:37:11ZengCopernicus PublicationsGeoscientific Model Development1991-959X1991-96032023-07-01163827384810.5194/gmd-16-3827-2023An approach to refining the ground meteorological observation stations for improving PM<sub>2.5</sub> forecasts in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei regionL. Yang0W. Duan1W. Duan2Z. Wang3LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaLASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaLAPC, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China<p>This paper investigates how to refine the ground meteorological observation network to greatly improve the PM<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2.5</sub></span> concentration forecasts by identifying sensitive areas for targeted observations that are associated with a total of 48 forecasts in eight heavy haze events during the years of 2016–2018 over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method is adopted to determine the sensitive area of the surface meteorological fields for each forecast, and a total of 48 CNOP-type errors are obtained including wind, temperature, and water vapor mixing ratio components. It is found that, although all the sensitive areas tend to locate within and/or around the BTH region, their specific distributions are dependent on the events and the start times of the forecasts. Based on these sensitive areas, the current ground meteorological stations within and around the BTH region are refined to form a cost-effective observation network, which makes the relevant PM<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2.5</sub></span> forecasts starting from different initial times for varying events assimilate fewer observations, but overall, it achieve the forecasting skill comparable to and even higher than that obtained by assimilating all ground station observations. This network sheds light on the idea that some of the current ground stations within and around the BTH region are very useless for improving the PM<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2.5</sub></span> forecasts in the BTH region and can be greatly scattered to avoid unnecessary work.</p>https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/16/3827/2023/gmd-16-3827-2023.pdf |
| spellingShingle | L. Yang W. Duan W. Duan Z. Wang An approach to refining the ground meteorological observation stations for improving PM<sub>2.5</sub> forecasts in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region Geoscientific Model Development |
| title | An approach to refining the ground meteorological observation stations for improving PM<sub>2.5</sub> forecasts in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region |
| title_full | An approach to refining the ground meteorological observation stations for improving PM<sub>2.5</sub> forecasts in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region |
| title_fullStr | An approach to refining the ground meteorological observation stations for improving PM<sub>2.5</sub> forecasts in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region |
| title_full_unstemmed | An approach to refining the ground meteorological observation stations for improving PM<sub>2.5</sub> forecasts in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region |
| title_short | An approach to refining the ground meteorological observation stations for improving PM<sub>2.5</sub> forecasts in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region |
| title_sort | approach to refining the ground meteorological observation stations for improving pm sub 2 5 sub forecasts in the beijing tianjin hebei region |
| url | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/16/3827/2023/gmd-16-3827-2023.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lyang anapproachtorefiningthegroundmeteorologicalobservationstationsforimprovingpmsub25subforecastsinthebeijingtianjinhebeiregion AT wduan anapproachtorefiningthegroundmeteorologicalobservationstationsforimprovingpmsub25subforecastsinthebeijingtianjinhebeiregion AT wduan anapproachtorefiningthegroundmeteorologicalobservationstationsforimprovingpmsub25subforecastsinthebeijingtianjinhebeiregion AT zwang anapproachtorefiningthegroundmeteorologicalobservationstationsforimprovingpmsub25subforecastsinthebeijingtianjinhebeiregion AT lyang approachtorefiningthegroundmeteorologicalobservationstationsforimprovingpmsub25subforecastsinthebeijingtianjinhebeiregion AT wduan approachtorefiningthegroundmeteorologicalobservationstationsforimprovingpmsub25subforecastsinthebeijingtianjinhebeiregion AT wduan approachtorefiningthegroundmeteorologicalobservationstationsforimprovingpmsub25subforecastsinthebeijingtianjinhebeiregion AT zwang approachtorefiningthegroundmeteorologicalobservationstationsforimprovingpmsub25subforecastsinthebeijingtianjinhebeiregion |