Mixed Regional Shifts in Conifer Productivity under 21st-Century Climate Projections in Canada’s Northeastern Boreal Forest
Models of forest growth and yield (G&Y) are a key component in long-term strategic forest management plans. Models leveraging the industry-standard “empirical” approach to G&Y are frequently underpinned by an assumption of historical consistency in climatic growing conditions. This assumptio...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-02-01
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| Series: | Forests |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/2/248 |
| _version_ | 1797395695983919104 |
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| author | Tyler Searls James Steenberg Xinbiao Zhu Charles P.-A. Bourque Fan-Rui Meng |
| author_facet | Tyler Searls James Steenberg Xinbiao Zhu Charles P.-A. Bourque Fan-Rui Meng |
| author_sort | Tyler Searls |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Models of forest growth and yield (G&Y) are a key component in long-term strategic forest management plans. Models leveraging the industry-standard “empirical” approach to G&Y are frequently underpinned by an assumption of historical consistency in climatic growing conditions. This assumption is problematic as forest managers look to obtain reliable growth predictions under the changing climate of the 21st century. Consequently, there is a pressing need for G&Y modelling approaches that can be more robustly applied under the influence of climate change. In this study we utilized an established forest gap model (JABOWA-3) to simulate G&Y between 2020 and 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL). Simulations were completed using the province’s permanent sample plot data and surface-fitted climatic datasets. Through model validation, we found simulated basal area (BA) aligned with observed BA for the major conifer species components of NL’s forests, including black spruce [<i>Picea mariana</i> (Mill.) Britton et al.] and balsam fir [<i>Abies balsamea</i> (L.) Mill]. Model validation was not as robust for the less abundant species components of NL (e.g., <i>Acer rubrum</i> L. 1753, <i>Populus tremuloides</i> Michx., and <i>Picea glauca</i> (Moench) Voss). Our simulations generally indicate that projected climatic changes may modestly increase black spruce and balsam fir productivity in the more northerly growing environments within NL. In contrast, we found productivity of these same species to only be maintained, and in some instances even decline, toward NL’s southerly extents. These generalizations are moderated by species, RCP, and geographic parameters. Growth modifiers were also prepared to render empirical G&Y projections more robust for use under periods of climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T00:39:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-39080db6117641e98bf294c25b71d718 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4907 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T00:39:13Z |
| publishDate | 2021-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Forests |
| spelling | doaj.art-39080db6117641e98bf294c25b71d7182023-12-11T17:54:08ZengMDPI AGForests1999-49072021-02-0112224810.3390/f12020248Mixed Regional Shifts in Conifer Productivity under 21st-Century Climate Projections in Canada’s Northeastern Boreal ForestTyler Searls0James Steenberg1Xinbiao Zhu2Charles P.-A. Bourque3Fan-Rui Meng4Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Management, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, CanadaNova Scotia Department of Lands and Forestry, Truro, NS B2N 1G6, CanadaCanadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Atlantic Forestry Centre, Corner Brook, NL A2H 6J3, CanadaFaculty of Forestry and Environmental Management, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, CanadaFaculty of Forestry and Environmental Management, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, CanadaModels of forest growth and yield (G&Y) are a key component in long-term strategic forest management plans. Models leveraging the industry-standard “empirical” approach to G&Y are frequently underpinned by an assumption of historical consistency in climatic growing conditions. This assumption is problematic as forest managers look to obtain reliable growth predictions under the changing climate of the 21st century. Consequently, there is a pressing need for G&Y modelling approaches that can be more robustly applied under the influence of climate change. In this study we utilized an established forest gap model (JABOWA-3) to simulate G&Y between 2020 and 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL). Simulations were completed using the province’s permanent sample plot data and surface-fitted climatic datasets. Through model validation, we found simulated basal area (BA) aligned with observed BA for the major conifer species components of NL’s forests, including black spruce [<i>Picea mariana</i> (Mill.) Britton et al.] and balsam fir [<i>Abies balsamea</i> (L.) Mill]. Model validation was not as robust for the less abundant species components of NL (e.g., <i>Acer rubrum</i> L. 1753, <i>Populus tremuloides</i> Michx., and <i>Picea glauca</i> (Moench) Voss). Our simulations generally indicate that projected climatic changes may modestly increase black spruce and balsam fir productivity in the more northerly growing environments within NL. In contrast, we found productivity of these same species to only be maintained, and in some instances even decline, toward NL’s southerly extents. These generalizations are moderated by species, RCP, and geographic parameters. Growth modifiers were also prepared to render empirical G&Y projections more robust for use under periods of climate change.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/2/248boreal forestclimate changeclimate responsegrowth simulationmodifiersmechanistic model |
| spellingShingle | Tyler Searls James Steenberg Xinbiao Zhu Charles P.-A. Bourque Fan-Rui Meng Mixed Regional Shifts in Conifer Productivity under 21st-Century Climate Projections in Canada’s Northeastern Boreal Forest Forests boreal forest climate change climate response growth simulation modifiers mechanistic model |
| title | Mixed Regional Shifts in Conifer Productivity under 21st-Century Climate Projections in Canada’s Northeastern Boreal Forest |
| title_full | Mixed Regional Shifts in Conifer Productivity under 21st-Century Climate Projections in Canada’s Northeastern Boreal Forest |
| title_fullStr | Mixed Regional Shifts in Conifer Productivity under 21st-Century Climate Projections in Canada’s Northeastern Boreal Forest |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mixed Regional Shifts in Conifer Productivity under 21st-Century Climate Projections in Canada’s Northeastern Boreal Forest |
| title_short | Mixed Regional Shifts in Conifer Productivity under 21st-Century Climate Projections in Canada’s Northeastern Boreal Forest |
| title_sort | mixed regional shifts in conifer productivity under 21st century climate projections in canada s northeastern boreal forest |
| topic | boreal forest climate change climate response growth simulation modifiers mechanistic model |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/2/248 |
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