Vaccination as an alternative to non-drug interventions to prevent local resurgence of COVID-19
Abstract Background While a COVID-19 vaccine protects people from serious illness and death, it remains a concern when and how to lift the high-cost and strict non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). This study examined the joint effect of vaccine coverage and NPIs on the control of local and spora...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2022-03-01
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| Series: | Infectious Diseases of Poverty |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-022-00960-6 |
| _version_ | 1811284717098500096 |
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| author | Jinhua Pan Wenlong Zhu Jie Tian Zhixi Liu Ao Xu Ye Yao Weibing Wang |
| author_facet | Jinhua Pan Wenlong Zhu Jie Tian Zhixi Liu Ao Xu Ye Yao Weibing Wang |
| author_sort | Jinhua Pan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background While a COVID-19 vaccine protects people from serious illness and death, it remains a concern when and how to lift the high-cost and strict non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). This study examined the joint effect of vaccine coverage and NPIs on the control of local and sporadic resurgence of COVID-19 cases. Methods Between July 2021 and January 2022, we collected the large-scale testing information and case number of imported COVID-19 patients from the website of the National Health Commission of China. A compartment model was developed to identify the level of vaccine coverage that would allow safe relaxation of NPIs, and vaccination strategies that can best achieve this level of coverage. We applied Monte Carlo simulation 50 000 times to remove random fluctuation effects and obtain fitted/predicted epidemic curve based on various parameters with 95% confidence interval at each time point. Results We found that a vaccination coverage of 50.4% was needed for the safe relaxation of NPIs, if the vaccine effectiveness was 79.3%. The total number of incidence cases under the key groups firstly strategy was 103 times higher than that of accelerated vaccination strategy. It needed 35 months to fully relax NPIs if the key groups firstly strategy was implemented, and 27 months were needed with the accelerated vaccination strategy. If combined the two strategies, only 8 months are needed to achieve the vaccine coverage threshold for the fully relaxation of NPIs. Sensitivity analyses results shown that the higher the transmission rate of the virus and the lower annual vaccine supply, the more difficult the epidemic could be under control. When the transmission rate increased 25% or the vaccination effectiveness rate decreased 20%, 33 months were needed to reduce the number of total incidence cases below 1000. Conclusions As vaccine coverage improves, the NPIs can be gradually relaxed. Until that threshold is reached, however, strict NPIs are still needed to control the epidemic. The more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant led to higher resurgence probability, which indicates the importance of accelerated vaccination and achieving the vaccine coverage earlier. Graphical Abstract |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T02:33:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-391f37eb7fce4dad94e2e7f9cdfa183d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2049-9957 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T02:33:49Z |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Diseases of Poverty |
| spelling | doaj.art-391f37eb7fce4dad94e2e7f9cdfa183d2022-12-22T03:06:27ZengBMCInfectious Diseases of Poverty2049-99572022-03-0111111310.1186/s40249-022-00960-6Vaccination as an alternative to non-drug interventions to prevent local resurgence of COVID-19Jinhua Pan0Wenlong Zhu1Jie Tian2Zhixi Liu3Ao Xu4Ye Yao5Weibing Wang6School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, Fudan UniversityShanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan UniversitySchool of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, Fudan UniversitySchool of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, Fudan UniversitySchool of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, Fudan UniversityDepartment of Biostatics, School of Public Health, Fudan UniversitySchool of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, Fudan UniversityAbstract Background While a COVID-19 vaccine protects people from serious illness and death, it remains a concern when and how to lift the high-cost and strict non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). This study examined the joint effect of vaccine coverage and NPIs on the control of local and sporadic resurgence of COVID-19 cases. Methods Between July 2021 and January 2022, we collected the large-scale testing information and case number of imported COVID-19 patients from the website of the National Health Commission of China. A compartment model was developed to identify the level of vaccine coverage that would allow safe relaxation of NPIs, and vaccination strategies that can best achieve this level of coverage. We applied Monte Carlo simulation 50 000 times to remove random fluctuation effects and obtain fitted/predicted epidemic curve based on various parameters with 95% confidence interval at each time point. Results We found that a vaccination coverage of 50.4% was needed for the safe relaxation of NPIs, if the vaccine effectiveness was 79.3%. The total number of incidence cases under the key groups firstly strategy was 103 times higher than that of accelerated vaccination strategy. It needed 35 months to fully relax NPIs if the key groups firstly strategy was implemented, and 27 months were needed with the accelerated vaccination strategy. If combined the two strategies, only 8 months are needed to achieve the vaccine coverage threshold for the fully relaxation of NPIs. Sensitivity analyses results shown that the higher the transmission rate of the virus and the lower annual vaccine supply, the more difficult the epidemic could be under control. When the transmission rate increased 25% or the vaccination effectiveness rate decreased 20%, 33 months were needed to reduce the number of total incidence cases below 1000. Conclusions As vaccine coverage improves, the NPIs can be gradually relaxed. Until that threshold is reached, however, strict NPIs are still needed to control the epidemic. The more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant led to higher resurgence probability, which indicates the importance of accelerated vaccination and achieving the vaccine coverage earlier. Graphical Abstracthttps://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-022-00960-6COVID-19VaccineNon-pharmaceutical interventionsCompartment modelMonte Carlo simulation |
| spellingShingle | Jinhua Pan Wenlong Zhu Jie Tian Zhixi Liu Ao Xu Ye Yao Weibing Wang Vaccination as an alternative to non-drug interventions to prevent local resurgence of COVID-19 Infectious Diseases of Poverty COVID-19 Vaccine Non-pharmaceutical interventions Compartment model Monte Carlo simulation |
| title | Vaccination as an alternative to non-drug interventions to prevent local resurgence of COVID-19 |
| title_full | Vaccination as an alternative to non-drug interventions to prevent local resurgence of COVID-19 |
| title_fullStr | Vaccination as an alternative to non-drug interventions to prevent local resurgence of COVID-19 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Vaccination as an alternative to non-drug interventions to prevent local resurgence of COVID-19 |
| title_short | Vaccination as an alternative to non-drug interventions to prevent local resurgence of COVID-19 |
| title_sort | vaccination as an alternative to non drug interventions to prevent local resurgence of covid 19 |
| topic | COVID-19 Vaccine Non-pharmaceutical interventions Compartment model Monte Carlo simulation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-022-00960-6 |
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