Impact of solar geoengineering on wildfires in the 21st century in CESM2/WACCM6
<p>We quantify future changes in wildfire burned area and carbon emissions in the 21st century under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios and two SSP5-8.5-based solar geoengineering scenarios with a target surface temperature defined by SSP2-4.5 – solar irradiance reduction (G6s...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/5467/2023/acp-23-5467-2023.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797826134799286272 |
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| author | W. Tang S. Tilmes D. M. Lawrence F. Li C. He L. K. Emmons R. R. Buchholz L. Xia |
| author_facet | W. Tang S. Tilmes D. M. Lawrence F. Li C. He L. K. Emmons R. R. Buchholz L. Xia |
| author_sort | W. Tang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>We quantify future changes in wildfire burned area and carbon emissions in
the 21st century under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios
and two SSP5-8.5-based solar geoengineering scenarios with a target surface
temperature defined by SSP2-4.5 – solar irradiance reduction (G6solar) and
stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (G6sulfur) – and explore the
mechanisms that drive solar geoengineering impacts on fires. This study is
based on fully coupled climate–chemistry simulations with simulated
occurrence of fires (burned area and carbon emissions) using the Whole
Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) as the atmospheric
component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Globally,
total wildfire burned area is projected to increase over the 21st century
under scenarios without geoengineering and decrease under the two
geoengineering scenarios. By the end of the century, the two geoengineering
scenarios have lower burned area and fire carbon emissions than not only
their base-climate scenario SSP5-8.5 but also the targeted-climate scenario
SSP2-4.5.</p>
<p>Geoengineering reduces wildfire occurrence by decreasing surface
temperature and wind speed and increasing relative humidity and soil water,
with the exception of boreal regions where geoengineering increases the
occurrence of wildfires due to a decrease in relative humidity and soil
water compared with the present day. This leads to a global reduction in burned
area and fire carbon emissions by the end of the century relative to their
base-climate scenario SSP5-8.5. However, geoengineering also yields
reductions in precipitation compared with a warming climate, which offsets
some of the fire reduction. Overall, the impacts of the different driving
factors are larger on burned area than fire carbon emissions. In general,
the stratospheric sulfate aerosol approach has a stronger fire-reducing
effect than the solar irradiance reduction approach.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T11:04:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-396c8548111c4292bf0be9749392fc35 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T11:04:14Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-396c8548111c4292bf0be9749392fc352023-05-16T11:30:11ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242023-05-01235467548610.5194/acp-23-5467-2023Impact of solar geoengineering on wildfires in the 21st century in CESM2/WACCM6W. Tang0S. Tilmes1D. M. Lawrence2F. Li3C. He4L. K. Emmons5R. R. Buchholz6L. Xia7Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USAAtmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USAClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USAInternational Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaResearch Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USAAtmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USAAtmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USADepartment of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA<p>We quantify future changes in wildfire burned area and carbon emissions in the 21st century under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios and two SSP5-8.5-based solar geoengineering scenarios with a target surface temperature defined by SSP2-4.5 – solar irradiance reduction (G6solar) and stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (G6sulfur) – and explore the mechanisms that drive solar geoengineering impacts on fires. This study is based on fully coupled climate–chemistry simulations with simulated occurrence of fires (burned area and carbon emissions) using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) as the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Globally, total wildfire burned area is projected to increase over the 21st century under scenarios without geoengineering and decrease under the two geoengineering scenarios. By the end of the century, the two geoengineering scenarios have lower burned area and fire carbon emissions than not only their base-climate scenario SSP5-8.5 but also the targeted-climate scenario SSP2-4.5.</p> <p>Geoengineering reduces wildfire occurrence by decreasing surface temperature and wind speed and increasing relative humidity and soil water, with the exception of boreal regions where geoengineering increases the occurrence of wildfires due to a decrease in relative humidity and soil water compared with the present day. This leads to a global reduction in burned area and fire carbon emissions by the end of the century relative to their base-climate scenario SSP5-8.5. However, geoengineering also yields reductions in precipitation compared with a warming climate, which offsets some of the fire reduction. Overall, the impacts of the different driving factors are larger on burned area than fire carbon emissions. In general, the stratospheric sulfate aerosol approach has a stronger fire-reducing effect than the solar irradiance reduction approach.</p>https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/5467/2023/acp-23-5467-2023.pdf |
| spellingShingle | W. Tang S. Tilmes D. M. Lawrence F. Li C. He L. K. Emmons R. R. Buchholz L. Xia Impact of solar geoengineering on wildfires in the 21st century in CESM2/WACCM6 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Impact of solar geoengineering on wildfires in the 21st century in CESM2/WACCM6 |
| title_full | Impact of solar geoengineering on wildfires in the 21st century in CESM2/WACCM6 |
| title_fullStr | Impact of solar geoengineering on wildfires in the 21st century in CESM2/WACCM6 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of solar geoengineering on wildfires in the 21st century in CESM2/WACCM6 |
| title_short | Impact of solar geoengineering on wildfires in the 21st century in CESM2/WACCM6 |
| title_sort | impact of solar geoengineering on wildfires in the 21st century in cesm2 waccm6 |
| url | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/5467/2023/acp-23-5467-2023.pdf |
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