Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios
Abstract Polar regions are among the most affected areas by the current global warming. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), impacts of a warmer climate include decrease in sea-ice extent, changes in oceanic and in atmospheric circulation. Recently, some of these impacts were reinforced by the positive...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Academia Brasileira de Ciências
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000201104&lng=en&tlng=en |
| _version_ | 1818307883611193344 |
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| author | LUCIANA F. PRADO ILANA WAINER RONALD B. DE SOUZA |
| author_facet | LUCIANA F. PRADO ILANA WAINER RONALD B. DE SOUZA |
| author_sort | LUCIANA F. PRADO |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Polar regions are among the most affected areas by the current global warming. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), impacts of a warmer climate include decrease in sea-ice extent, changes in oceanic and in atmospheric circulation. Recently, some of these impacts were reinforced by the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). SAM is the dominant mode of variability of the SH extratropical climate and manifests as a “ring-shape” regular pattern of atmospheric mean sea level pressure (MSLP) with opposite sign between mid and high SH latitudes. Over the last three decades, SAM has presented a positive trend, and some studies associate it to stratospheric ozone depletion and to an increase in greenhouse gases concentration. As this debate is still open, climate models constitute useful tools to understand the SH variability in future scenarios. Here we use monthly MSLP outputs from the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) to examine SAM temporal and spatial behavior in future climate scenarios compared to the historical period. Our results for the BESM simulations suggest that the mean spatial pattern of SAM does not change with global warming, but an increase in the radiative forcing may reinforce positive SAM values obtained for the historical period. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T07:05:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3972e2985b0e4a8ea410849a4e50e195 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1678-2690 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T07:05:27Z |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências |
| spelling | doaj.art-3972e2985b0e4a8ea410849a4e50e1952022-12-21T23:55:50ZengAcademia Brasileira de CiênciasAnais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências1678-26902021-03-0194suppl 110.1590/0001-3765202220210667Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenariosLUCIANA F. PRADOhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6446-8986ILANA WAINERhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3784-623XRONALD B. DE SOUZAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3346-3370Abstract Polar regions are among the most affected areas by the current global warming. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), impacts of a warmer climate include decrease in sea-ice extent, changes in oceanic and in atmospheric circulation. Recently, some of these impacts were reinforced by the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). SAM is the dominant mode of variability of the SH extratropical climate and manifests as a “ring-shape” regular pattern of atmospheric mean sea level pressure (MSLP) with opposite sign between mid and high SH latitudes. Over the last three decades, SAM has presented a positive trend, and some studies associate it to stratospheric ozone depletion and to an increase in greenhouse gases concentration. As this debate is still open, climate models constitute useful tools to understand the SH variability in future scenarios. Here we use monthly MSLP outputs from the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) to examine SAM temporal and spatial behavior in future climate scenarios compared to the historical period. Our results for the BESM simulations suggest that the mean spatial pattern of SAM does not change with global warming, but an increase in the radiative forcing may reinforce positive SAM values obtained for the historical period.http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000201104&lng=en&tlng=enAntarcticaCMIP5Historicalmean sea level pressuremodes of variabilityRCP |
| spellingShingle | LUCIANA F. PRADO ILANA WAINER RONALD B. DE SOUZA Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências Antarctica CMIP5 Historical mean sea level pressure modes of variability RCP |
| title | Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
| title_full | Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
| title_short | Positive SAM trend as seen in the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) future scenarios |
| title_sort | positive sam trend as seen in the brazilian earth system model besm future scenarios |
| topic | Antarctica CMIP5 Historical mean sea level pressure modes of variability RCP |
| url | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652022000201104&lng=en&tlng=en |
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