Model emulators for the assessment of regional impacts and risks of climate change: A case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico
The collection of publicly available databases about climate change and its impacts on natural and human systems is unprecedented and ever-growing. However, the requirements of information can vary widely among users depending on their region, socioenvironmental context, and interests. Moreover, in...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Environmental Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1027545/full |
| _version_ | 1811157681107369984 |
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| author | Francisco Estrada Francisco Estrada Francisco Estrada Alma Mendoza Guillermo Murray Oscar Calderón-Bustamante Wouter Botzen Wouter Botzen Teresa De León Escobedo Julián A. Velasco |
| author_facet | Francisco Estrada Francisco Estrada Francisco Estrada Alma Mendoza Guillermo Murray Oscar Calderón-Bustamante Wouter Botzen Wouter Botzen Teresa De León Escobedo Julián A. Velasco |
| author_sort | Francisco Estrada |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The collection of publicly available databases about climate change and its impacts on natural and human systems is unprecedented and ever-growing. However, the requirements of information can vary widely among users depending on their region, socioenvironmental context, and interests. Moreover, in the current era of active mitigation and adaptation policies, information needs are frequently not satisfied even by these massive and variated collections of databases. The development and use of emulators can help closing this information gap by allowing users to approximate the output from complex models and create user-defined experiments, without being technically or computational demanding on the user. Here, a simple emulator of the EPIC biophysical crop model is presented which is able to adequately reproduce the changes in rainfed maize and to create projections for user-defined scenarios. Moreover, it allows to produce risk measures that are not available with the original model. The proposed methodology is illustrated with a case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico for a reference emissions scenario (SSP370) and two user-defined international mitigation policy scenarios. These scenarios represent 1) current international mitigation commitments and 2) a scenario in which China withdraws from international mitigation efforts. Results showed that, under the reference scenario, climate change could have widespread consequences on rainfed production all over the country with decreases in yields reaching up to 80% in the southeast and northeast of the country. These impacts can be partially modulated by the moderately ambitious mitigation commitments assumed in recent international agreements if all countries comply. However, a potential withdraw of China from these efforts would significantly reduce any benefits from international mitigation. Under all scenarios, changes in productivity impose increasing risks for already vulnerable populations and considerable economic costs at the state and national levels. These results suggest the urgent need for critical planning for adaptation in the agricultural sector of the country. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T05:11:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-39787d72774b4f5f9078346c2dfd999c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-665X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T05:11:23Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Environmental Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-39787d72774b4f5f9078346c2dfd999c2023-03-09T07:17:26ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Environmental Science2296-665X2023-03-011110.3389/fenvs.2023.10275451027545Model emulators for the assessment of regional impacts and risks of climate change: A case study of rainfed maize production in MexicoFrancisco Estrada0Francisco Estrada1Francisco Estrada2Alma Mendoza3Guillermo Murray4Oscar Calderón-Bustamante5Wouter Botzen6Wouter Botzen7Teresa De León Escobedo8Julián A. Velasco9Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, MexicoInstitute for Environmental Studies, VU Amsterdam, Amsterdam, NetherlandsPrograma de Investigación en Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, MexicoPrograma de Investigación en Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, MexicoInstituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, MexicoCentro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, MexicoInstitute for Environmental Studies, VU Amsterdam, Amsterdam, NetherlandsUtrecht University School of Economics (U.S.E.), Utrecht University, Utrecht, NetherlandsPosgrado en Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, MexicoCentro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, MexicoThe collection of publicly available databases about climate change and its impacts on natural and human systems is unprecedented and ever-growing. However, the requirements of information can vary widely among users depending on their region, socioenvironmental context, and interests. Moreover, in the current era of active mitigation and adaptation policies, information needs are frequently not satisfied even by these massive and variated collections of databases. The development and use of emulators can help closing this information gap by allowing users to approximate the output from complex models and create user-defined experiments, without being technically or computational demanding on the user. Here, a simple emulator of the EPIC biophysical crop model is presented which is able to adequately reproduce the changes in rainfed maize and to create projections for user-defined scenarios. Moreover, it allows to produce risk measures that are not available with the original model. The proposed methodology is illustrated with a case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico for a reference emissions scenario (SSP370) and two user-defined international mitigation policy scenarios. These scenarios represent 1) current international mitigation commitments and 2) a scenario in which China withdraws from international mitigation efforts. Results showed that, under the reference scenario, climate change could have widespread consequences on rainfed production all over the country with decreases in yields reaching up to 80% in the southeast and northeast of the country. These impacts can be partially modulated by the moderately ambitious mitigation commitments assumed in recent international agreements if all countries comply. However, a potential withdraw of China from these efforts would significantly reduce any benefits from international mitigation. Under all scenarios, changes in productivity impose increasing risks for already vulnerable populations and considerable economic costs at the state and national levels. These results suggest the urgent need for critical planning for adaptation in the agricultural sector of the country.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1027545/fullclimate changeagricultureemulatorriskintegrated assesment |
| spellingShingle | Francisco Estrada Francisco Estrada Francisco Estrada Alma Mendoza Guillermo Murray Oscar Calderón-Bustamante Wouter Botzen Wouter Botzen Teresa De León Escobedo Julián A. Velasco Model emulators for the assessment of regional impacts and risks of climate change: A case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico Frontiers in Environmental Science climate change agriculture emulator risk integrated assesment |
| title | Model emulators for the assessment of regional impacts and risks of climate change: A case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico |
| title_full | Model emulators for the assessment of regional impacts and risks of climate change: A case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico |
| title_fullStr | Model emulators for the assessment of regional impacts and risks of climate change: A case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico |
| title_full_unstemmed | Model emulators for the assessment of regional impacts and risks of climate change: A case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico |
| title_short | Model emulators for the assessment of regional impacts and risks of climate change: A case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico |
| title_sort | model emulators for the assessment of regional impacts and risks of climate change a case study of rainfed maize production in mexico |
| topic | climate change agriculture emulator risk integrated assesment |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1027545/full |
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