Prediction of Padma river bank shifting and its consequences on LULC changes
River channel migration frequently takes place in the river in the floodplain zones. The morphological dynamics of rivers in the floodplain zones act as an important ecological indicator of its profound effect on both ecological and human existence. Living close to rivers puts one's life and pr...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2023-12-01
|
| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23012463 |
| _version_ | 1827784486164627456 |
|---|---|
| author | Samiha Mahzabin Ritu Showmitra Kumar Sarkar Hasan Zonaed |
| author_facet | Samiha Mahzabin Ritu Showmitra Kumar Sarkar Hasan Zonaed |
| author_sort | Samiha Mahzabin Ritu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | River channel migration frequently takes place in the river in the floodplain zones. The morphological dynamics of rivers in the floodplain zones act as an important ecological indicator of its profound effect on both ecological and human existence. Living close to rivers puts one's life and property in danger owing to fluctuations in LULC brought on by channel dynamics. A detailed analysis of the causes and impacts of such changes is necessary for establishing better policy and decision-making in the areas of catastrophe risk reduction and management. The study aims to assess the spatiotemporal variation of the Padma River bank line as well as surroundings LULC from 1991 to 2021 with predicting backlines migration and LULC till 2031 and 2041 respectively. Additionally, the study determines the impact of riverbank shifting on LULC of Padma River surroundings upazilas. The bank line was extracted using GEE to compute the NDWI and MNDWI indexes, also ArcGIS was used to complete the rest of the DSAS model before the value was visually performed. The outstanding accuracy of the model between the actual and forecasted riverbank movement was also revealed by the validation results. On the other hand, LULC was carried out in GEE, and QGIS was used to develop the prediction model. Last but not least, the Chi-square test demonstrated that there is no statistically significant difference between the actual and predicted LULC for 2021. The data demonstrate that the rate of erosion and accretion fluctuates from 20 to 90 m per year, while the predicted rate remains constant. The findings of the research made it evident that 9 out of the 37 upazilas that were chosen had experienced the LULC transition, and that by 2041, 4 new upazilas will replace the previous 2 summing up to 11. Four upazilas, namely Bagha, Daulatpur, Goalanda, and Faridpur Sadar, have been affected by the LULC since 1991, and the findings of the study came to a verdict that this degradation will continue until 2041. Protecting aquatic ecosystems is one of the main objectives of mapping river morphological dynamics, but it's also important to recognize the effects that any change in ecological indicators will have on people and the surroundings. The study addresses the issues of ecosystem degradation in the river-adjacent upazilas and provides a spatial strategy for monitoring trends in river migration and LULC variations over time in order to possibly use the study's findings as a framework for planning and policy-making to improve human quality of life. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T16:04:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3a243c26cdd54cfb9b3ab6c9ac65146a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T16:04:55Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-3a243c26cdd54cfb9b3ab6c9ac65146a2023-10-25T04:15:59ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2023-12-01156111104Prediction of Padma river bank shifting and its consequences on LULC changesSamiha Mahzabin Ritu0Showmitra Kumar Sarkar1Hasan Zonaed2Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Khulna 9203, BangladeshCorresponding author.; Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Khulna 9203, BangladeshDepartment of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Khulna 9203, BangladeshRiver channel migration frequently takes place in the river in the floodplain zones. The morphological dynamics of rivers in the floodplain zones act as an important ecological indicator of its profound effect on both ecological and human existence. Living close to rivers puts one's life and property in danger owing to fluctuations in LULC brought on by channel dynamics. A detailed analysis of the causes and impacts of such changes is necessary for establishing better policy and decision-making in the areas of catastrophe risk reduction and management. The study aims to assess the spatiotemporal variation of the Padma River bank line as well as surroundings LULC from 1991 to 2021 with predicting backlines migration and LULC till 2031 and 2041 respectively. Additionally, the study determines the impact of riverbank shifting on LULC of Padma River surroundings upazilas. The bank line was extracted using GEE to compute the NDWI and MNDWI indexes, also ArcGIS was used to complete the rest of the DSAS model before the value was visually performed. The outstanding accuracy of the model between the actual and forecasted riverbank movement was also revealed by the validation results. On the other hand, LULC was carried out in GEE, and QGIS was used to develop the prediction model. Last but not least, the Chi-square test demonstrated that there is no statistically significant difference between the actual and predicted LULC for 2021. The data demonstrate that the rate of erosion and accretion fluctuates from 20 to 90 m per year, while the predicted rate remains constant. The findings of the research made it evident that 9 out of the 37 upazilas that were chosen had experienced the LULC transition, and that by 2041, 4 new upazilas will replace the previous 2 summing up to 11. Four upazilas, namely Bagha, Daulatpur, Goalanda, and Faridpur Sadar, have been affected by the LULC since 1991, and the findings of the study came to a verdict that this degradation will continue until 2041. Protecting aquatic ecosystems is one of the main objectives of mapping river morphological dynamics, but it's also important to recognize the effects that any change in ecological indicators will have on people and the surroundings. The study addresses the issues of ecosystem degradation in the river-adjacent upazilas and provides a spatial strategy for monitoring trends in river migration and LULC variations over time in order to possibly use the study's findings as a framework for planning and policy-making to improve human quality of life.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23012463DSASErosionAccretionLULC changeChannel shifting |
| spellingShingle | Samiha Mahzabin Ritu Showmitra Kumar Sarkar Hasan Zonaed Prediction of Padma river bank shifting and its consequences on LULC changes Ecological Indicators DSAS Erosion Accretion LULC change Channel shifting |
| title | Prediction of Padma river bank shifting and its consequences on LULC changes |
| title_full | Prediction of Padma river bank shifting and its consequences on LULC changes |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of Padma river bank shifting and its consequences on LULC changes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of Padma river bank shifting and its consequences on LULC changes |
| title_short | Prediction of Padma river bank shifting and its consequences on LULC changes |
| title_sort | prediction of padma river bank shifting and its consequences on lulc changes |
| topic | DSAS Erosion Accretion LULC change Channel shifting |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23012463 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT samihamahzabinritu predictionofpadmariverbankshiftinganditsconsequencesonlulcchanges AT showmitrakumarsarkar predictionofpadmariverbankshiftinganditsconsequencesonlulcchanges AT hasanzonaed predictionofpadmariverbankshiftinganditsconsequencesonlulcchanges |