Global sensitivity analysis for offshore wind cost modelling
Abstract The costs of offshore wind are decreasing rapidly. However, there is a need to better understand the key drivers behind these cost reductions. New environmental regulations, economic policies, technological advancements and financing structures have resulted in a set of relationships that n...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2021-09-01
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| Series: | Wind Energy |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2612 |
| _version_ | 1819136914058379264 |
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| author | Esteve Borràs Mora James Spelling Adriaan H. van derWeijde |
| author_facet | Esteve Borràs Mora James Spelling Adriaan H. van derWeijde |
| author_sort | Esteve Borràs Mora |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The costs of offshore wind are decreasing rapidly. However, there is a need to better understand the key drivers behind these cost reductions. New environmental regulations, economic policies, technological advancements and financing structures have resulted in a set of relationships that need to be considered in order to define risks and profitability for the next generation of offshore wind farms. We use an industry‐leading offshore wind cost modelling tool which integrates site characteristics, technology specificities and financial modelling expertise and apply state‐of‐art global sensitivity analysis methods for different classes of offshore wind farms, ranking the contribution of around 150 input parameters that influence the cost of offshore wind development. We show that the top 5 parameters when building an offshore wind investment business case are the wind speed, target equity rate of return, turbine costs, drilling costs and debt service coverage ratio. The contribution of this paper can help guide additional efforts towards reducing the uncertainty of those key parameters to decrease costs and provide a framework to choose global sensitivity analysis techniques for offshore wind techno‐economic models. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T10:42:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3a30193637c644a1ad8bdab20c5eaa2d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1095-4244 1099-1824 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T10:42:28Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Wind Energy |
| spelling | doaj.art-3a30193637c644a1ad8bdab20c5eaa2d2022-12-21T18:28:59ZengWileyWind Energy1095-42441099-18242021-09-0124997499010.1002/we.2612Global sensitivity analysis for offshore wind cost modellingEsteve Borràs Mora0James Spelling1Adriaan H. van derWeijde2Industrial Doctoral Centre for Offshore Renewable Energy (IDCORE) The University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3JL UKRenewables EDF Energy R&D UK Centre Croydon CR0 2AJ UKInstitute for Energy Systems, School of Engineering University of Edinburgh Mayfield Road Edinburgh EH9 3DW UKAbstract The costs of offshore wind are decreasing rapidly. However, there is a need to better understand the key drivers behind these cost reductions. New environmental regulations, economic policies, technological advancements and financing structures have resulted in a set of relationships that need to be considered in order to define risks and profitability for the next generation of offshore wind farms. We use an industry‐leading offshore wind cost modelling tool which integrates site characteristics, technology specificities and financial modelling expertise and apply state‐of‐art global sensitivity analysis methods for different classes of offshore wind farms, ranking the contribution of around 150 input parameters that influence the cost of offshore wind development. We show that the top 5 parameters when building an offshore wind investment business case are the wind speed, target equity rate of return, turbine costs, drilling costs and debt service coverage ratio. The contribution of this paper can help guide additional efforts towards reducing the uncertainty of those key parameters to decrease costs and provide a framework to choose global sensitivity analysis techniques for offshore wind techno‐economic models.https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2612decision making under uncertaintyglobal sensitivity analysisoffshore windoffshore wind cost modelling |
| spellingShingle | Esteve Borràs Mora James Spelling Adriaan H. van derWeijde Global sensitivity analysis for offshore wind cost modelling Wind Energy decision making under uncertainty global sensitivity analysis offshore wind offshore wind cost modelling |
| title | Global sensitivity analysis for offshore wind cost modelling |
| title_full | Global sensitivity analysis for offshore wind cost modelling |
| title_fullStr | Global sensitivity analysis for offshore wind cost modelling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global sensitivity analysis for offshore wind cost modelling |
| title_short | Global sensitivity analysis for offshore wind cost modelling |
| title_sort | global sensitivity analysis for offshore wind cost modelling |
| topic | decision making under uncertainty global sensitivity analysis offshore wind offshore wind cost modelling |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2612 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT esteveborrasmora globalsensitivityanalysisforoffshorewindcostmodelling AT jamesspelling globalsensitivityanalysisforoffshorewindcostmodelling AT adriaanhvanderweijde globalsensitivityanalysisforoffshorewindcostmodelling |