Toward a Permafrost Vulnerability Index for Critical Infrastructure, Community Resilience and National Security
There has been a growth in the number of composite indicator tools used to assess community risk, vulnerability, and resilience, to assist study and policy planning. However, existing research shows that these composite indicators vary extensively in method, selected variables, aggregation methods,...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Geographies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7086/3/3/27 |
| _version_ | 1797579871069667328 |
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| author | Lilian Alessa James Valentine Sean Moon Chris McComb Sierra Hicks Vladimir Romanovsky Ming Xiao Andrew Kliskey |
| author_facet | Lilian Alessa James Valentine Sean Moon Chris McComb Sierra Hicks Vladimir Romanovsky Ming Xiao Andrew Kliskey |
| author_sort | Lilian Alessa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | There has been a growth in the number of composite indicator tools used to assess community risk, vulnerability, and resilience, to assist study and policy planning. However, existing research shows that these composite indicators vary extensively in method, selected variables, aggregation methods, and sample size. The result is a plethora of qualitative and quantitative composite indices to choose from. Despite each providing valuable location-based information about specific communities and their qualities, the results of studies, each using disparate methods, cannot easily be integrated for use in decision making, given the different index attributes and study locations. Like many regions in the world, the Arctic is experiencing increased variability in temperatures as a direct consequence of a changing planetary climate. Cascading effects of changes in permafrost are poorly characterized, thus limiting response at multiple scales. We offer that by considering the spatial interaction between the effects of permafrost, infrastructure, and diverse patterns of community characteristics, existing research using different composite indices and frameworks can be augmented. We used a system-science and place-based knowledge approach that accounts for sub-system and cascade impacts through a proximity model of spatial interaction. An estimated ‘permafrost vulnerability surface’ was calculated across Alaska using two existing indices: relevant infrastructure and permafrost extent. The value of this surface in 186 communities and 30 military facilities was extracted and ordered to match the numerical rankings of the Denali Commission in their assessment of permafrost threat, allowing accurate comparison between the permafrost threat ranks and the PVI rankings. The methods behind the PVI provide a tool that can incorporate multiple risk, resilience, and vulnerability indices to aid adaptation planning, especially where large-scale studies with good geographic sample distribution using the same criteria and methods do not exist. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:43:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3a412efc57a149098a3a1bd2e2bf92a3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2673-7086 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:43:12Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geographies |
| spelling | doaj.art-3a412efc57a149098a3a1bd2e2bf92a32023-11-19T10:54:22ZengMDPI AGGeographies2673-70862023-08-013352254210.3390/geographies3030027Toward a Permafrost Vulnerability Index for Critical Infrastructure, Community Resilience and National SecurityLilian Alessa0James Valentine1Sean Moon2Chris McComb3Sierra Hicks4Vladimir Romanovsky5Ming Xiao6Andrew Kliskey7Center for Resilient Communities, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, USACenter for Resilient Communities, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, USAOffice of Planning, Policy, and Strategy, Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC 20528, USAMechanical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USADepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16801, USAGeophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USADepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16801, USACenter for Resilient Communities, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, USAThere has been a growth in the number of composite indicator tools used to assess community risk, vulnerability, and resilience, to assist study and policy planning. However, existing research shows that these composite indicators vary extensively in method, selected variables, aggregation methods, and sample size. The result is a plethora of qualitative and quantitative composite indices to choose from. Despite each providing valuable location-based information about specific communities and their qualities, the results of studies, each using disparate methods, cannot easily be integrated for use in decision making, given the different index attributes and study locations. Like many regions in the world, the Arctic is experiencing increased variability in temperatures as a direct consequence of a changing planetary climate. Cascading effects of changes in permafrost are poorly characterized, thus limiting response at multiple scales. We offer that by considering the spatial interaction between the effects of permafrost, infrastructure, and diverse patterns of community characteristics, existing research using different composite indices and frameworks can be augmented. We used a system-science and place-based knowledge approach that accounts for sub-system and cascade impacts through a proximity model of spatial interaction. An estimated ‘permafrost vulnerability surface’ was calculated across Alaska using two existing indices: relevant infrastructure and permafrost extent. The value of this surface in 186 communities and 30 military facilities was extracted and ordered to match the numerical rankings of the Denali Commission in their assessment of permafrost threat, allowing accurate comparison between the permafrost threat ranks and the PVI rankings. The methods behind the PVI provide a tool that can incorporate multiple risk, resilience, and vulnerability indices to aid adaptation planning, especially where large-scale studies with good geographic sample distribution using the same criteria and methods do not exist.https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7086/3/3/27arcticinfrastructurenational securitypermafrostresiliencepermafrost vulnerability index |
| spellingShingle | Lilian Alessa James Valentine Sean Moon Chris McComb Sierra Hicks Vladimir Romanovsky Ming Xiao Andrew Kliskey Toward a Permafrost Vulnerability Index for Critical Infrastructure, Community Resilience and National Security Geographies arctic infrastructure national security permafrost resilience permafrost vulnerability index |
| title | Toward a Permafrost Vulnerability Index for Critical Infrastructure, Community Resilience and National Security |
| title_full | Toward a Permafrost Vulnerability Index for Critical Infrastructure, Community Resilience and National Security |
| title_fullStr | Toward a Permafrost Vulnerability Index for Critical Infrastructure, Community Resilience and National Security |
| title_full_unstemmed | Toward a Permafrost Vulnerability Index for Critical Infrastructure, Community Resilience and National Security |
| title_short | Toward a Permafrost Vulnerability Index for Critical Infrastructure, Community Resilience and National Security |
| title_sort | toward a permafrost vulnerability index for critical infrastructure community resilience and national security |
| topic | arctic infrastructure national security permafrost resilience permafrost vulnerability index |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7086/3/3/27 |
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