A Bayesian network model for prediction of low or failed fertilization in assisted reproductive technology based on a large clinical real-world data
Abstract Study question To construct prediction models based on the Bayesian network (BN) learning method for the probability of fertilization failure (including low fertilization rate [LRF] and total fertilization failure [TFF]) in assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment. Summary answer A...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Reproductive Biology and Endocrinology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12958-023-01065-x |
| _version_ | 1811175677174480896 |
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| author | Tian Tian Fei Kong Rui Yang Xiaoyu Long Lixue Chen Ming Li Qin Li Yongxiu Hao Yangbo He Yunjun Zhang Rong Li Yuanyuan Wang Jie Qiao |
| author_facet | Tian Tian Fei Kong Rui Yang Xiaoyu Long Lixue Chen Ming Li Qin Li Yongxiu Hao Yangbo He Yunjun Zhang Rong Li Yuanyuan Wang Jie Qiao |
| author_sort | Tian Tian |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Study question To construct prediction models based on the Bayesian network (BN) learning method for the probability of fertilization failure (including low fertilization rate [LRF] and total fertilization failure [TFF]) in assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment. Summary answer A BN model was developed to predict TFF/LFR. The model showed relatively high calibration in external validation, which could facilitate the identification of risk factors for fertilization disorders and improve the efficiency of in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) treatment. What is known already The prediction of TFF/LFR is very complex. Although some studies attempted to construct prediction models for TFF/LRF, most of the reported models were based on limited variables and traditional regression-based models, which are unsuitable for analyzing real-world clinical data. Therefore, none of the reported models have been widely used in routine clinical practice. To date, BN modeling analysis is a prominent and increasingly popular machine learning method that is powerful in dealing with dynamic and complex real-world data. Study design, size, duration A retrospective study was performed with 106,640 fresh embryo IVF/ICSI cycles from 2009 to 2019 in one of China's largest reproductive health centers. Participants/materials, setting, methods A total of 106, 640 cycles were included in this study, including 97,102 controls, 4,339 LFR cases, and 5,199 TFF cases. Twenty-four predictors were initially included, including 13 female-related variables, five male-related variables, and six variables related to IVF/ICSI treatment. BN modeling analysis with tenfold cross-validation was performed to construct the predictive model for TFF/LFR. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the corresponding area under the curves (AUCs) were used to evaluate the performance of the BN model. Main results and the role of chance All twenty-four predictors were first organized into seven hierarchical layers in a theoretical BN model, according to prior knowledge from previous literature and clinical practice. A machine-learning BN model was generated based on real-world clinical data, containing a total of eighteen predictors, of which the infertility type, ART method, and number of retrieved oocytes directly influence the probabilities of LFR/TFF. The prediction accuracy of the BN model was 91.7%. The AUC of the TFF versus control groups was 0.779 (95% CI: 0.766-0.791), with a sensitivity of 71.2% and specificity of 70.1%; the AUC of of TFF versus LFR groups was 0.807 (95% CI: 0.790-0.824), with a sensitivity of 49.0% and specificity of 99.0%. Limitations, reason for caution First, our study was based on clinical data from a single center, and the results of this study should be further verified by external data. In addition, some critical data (e.g., the detailed IVF laboratory parameters of the sperm and oocytes used for insemination) were not available in this study, which should be given full consideration when further improving the performance of the BN model. Wider implications of the findings Based on extensive clinical real-world data, we developed a BN model to predict the probabilities of fertilization failures in ART, which provides new clues for clinical decision-making support for clinicians in formulating personalized treatment plans and further improving ART treatment outcomes. Study funding/competing interest(s) Dr. Y. Wang was supported by grants from the Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission (Z191100006619086). We declare that there are no conflicts of interest. Trial registration number N/A. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T19:39:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3a5108e3172d4dd9a99546f78cbbe906 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1477-7827 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T19:39:40Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Reproductive Biology and Endocrinology |
| spelling | doaj.art-3a5108e3172d4dd9a99546f78cbbe9062023-01-29T12:24:50ZengBMCReproductive Biology and Endocrinology1477-78272023-01-0121111210.1186/s12958-023-01065-xA Bayesian network model for prediction of low or failed fertilization in assisted reproductive technology based on a large clinical real-world dataTian Tian0Fei Kong1Rui Yang2Xiaoyu Long3Lixue Chen4Ming Li5Qin Li6Yongxiu Hao7Yangbo He8Yunjun Zhang9Rong Li10Yuanyuan Wang11Jie Qiao12Center for Reproductive Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Peking University Third HospitalCenter for Reproductive Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Peking University Third HospitalCenter for Reproductive Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Peking University Third HospitalCenter for Reproductive Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Peking University Third HospitalCenter for Reproductive Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Peking University Third HospitalCenter for Reproductive Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Peking University Third HospitalCenter for Reproductive Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Peking University Third HospitalCenter for Reproductive Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Peking University Third HospitalSchool of Mathematical Sciences, LMAM, LMEQF, and Center of Statistical Science, Peking UniversitySchool of Public Health, Peking UniversityCenter for Reproductive Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Peking University Third HospitalCenter for Reproductive Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Peking University Third HospitalCenter for Reproductive Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Peking University Third HospitalAbstract Study question To construct prediction models based on the Bayesian network (BN) learning method for the probability of fertilization failure (including low fertilization rate [LRF] and total fertilization failure [TFF]) in assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment. Summary answer A BN model was developed to predict TFF/LFR. The model showed relatively high calibration in external validation, which could facilitate the identification of risk factors for fertilization disorders and improve the efficiency of in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) treatment. What is known already The prediction of TFF/LFR is very complex. Although some studies attempted to construct prediction models for TFF/LRF, most of the reported models were based on limited variables and traditional regression-based models, which are unsuitable for analyzing real-world clinical data. Therefore, none of the reported models have been widely used in routine clinical practice. To date, BN modeling analysis is a prominent and increasingly popular machine learning method that is powerful in dealing with dynamic and complex real-world data. Study design, size, duration A retrospective study was performed with 106,640 fresh embryo IVF/ICSI cycles from 2009 to 2019 in one of China's largest reproductive health centers. Participants/materials, setting, methods A total of 106, 640 cycles were included in this study, including 97,102 controls, 4,339 LFR cases, and 5,199 TFF cases. Twenty-four predictors were initially included, including 13 female-related variables, five male-related variables, and six variables related to IVF/ICSI treatment. BN modeling analysis with tenfold cross-validation was performed to construct the predictive model for TFF/LFR. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the corresponding area under the curves (AUCs) were used to evaluate the performance of the BN model. Main results and the role of chance All twenty-four predictors were first organized into seven hierarchical layers in a theoretical BN model, according to prior knowledge from previous literature and clinical practice. A machine-learning BN model was generated based on real-world clinical data, containing a total of eighteen predictors, of which the infertility type, ART method, and number of retrieved oocytes directly influence the probabilities of LFR/TFF. The prediction accuracy of the BN model was 91.7%. The AUC of the TFF versus control groups was 0.779 (95% CI: 0.766-0.791), with a sensitivity of 71.2% and specificity of 70.1%; the AUC of of TFF versus LFR groups was 0.807 (95% CI: 0.790-0.824), with a sensitivity of 49.0% and specificity of 99.0%. Limitations, reason for caution First, our study was based on clinical data from a single center, and the results of this study should be further verified by external data. In addition, some critical data (e.g., the detailed IVF laboratory parameters of the sperm and oocytes used for insemination) were not available in this study, which should be given full consideration when further improving the performance of the BN model. Wider implications of the findings Based on extensive clinical real-world data, we developed a BN model to predict the probabilities of fertilization failures in ART, which provides new clues for clinical decision-making support for clinicians in formulating personalized treatment plans and further improving ART treatment outcomes. Study funding/competing interest(s) Dr. Y. Wang was supported by grants from the Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission (Z191100006619086). We declare that there are no conflicts of interest. Trial registration number N/A.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12958-023-01065-xIn vitro fertilizationIntracytoplasmic sperm injectionFertilization failureBayesian networkPrediction model |
| spellingShingle | Tian Tian Fei Kong Rui Yang Xiaoyu Long Lixue Chen Ming Li Qin Li Yongxiu Hao Yangbo He Yunjun Zhang Rong Li Yuanyuan Wang Jie Qiao A Bayesian network model for prediction of low or failed fertilization in assisted reproductive technology based on a large clinical real-world data Reproductive Biology and Endocrinology In vitro fertilization Intracytoplasmic sperm injection Fertilization failure Bayesian network Prediction model |
| title | A Bayesian network model for prediction of low or failed fertilization in assisted reproductive technology based on a large clinical real-world data |
| title_full | A Bayesian network model for prediction of low or failed fertilization in assisted reproductive technology based on a large clinical real-world data |
| title_fullStr | A Bayesian network model for prediction of low or failed fertilization in assisted reproductive technology based on a large clinical real-world data |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Bayesian network model for prediction of low or failed fertilization in assisted reproductive technology based on a large clinical real-world data |
| title_short | A Bayesian network model for prediction of low or failed fertilization in assisted reproductive technology based on a large clinical real-world data |
| title_sort | bayesian network model for prediction of low or failed fertilization in assisted reproductive technology based on a large clinical real world data |
| topic | In vitro fertilization Intracytoplasmic sperm injection Fertilization failure Bayesian network Prediction model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12958-023-01065-x |
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