Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on a NRS-RF Model: A Case Study of the Song-Liao River Basin, China
The vulnerability of water resources is an important criterion for evaluating the carrying capacity of water resources systems under the influence of climate change and human activities. Moreover, assessment and prediction of river basins’ water resources vulnerability are important means to assess...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2021-07-01
|
| Series: | Entropy |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/23/7/882 |
| _version_ | 1827687568634806272 |
|---|---|
| author | Weizhong Chen Yan Chen Yazhong Feng |
| author_facet | Weizhong Chen Yan Chen Yazhong Feng |
| author_sort | Weizhong Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The vulnerability of water resources is an important criterion for evaluating the carrying capacity of water resources systems under the influence of climate change and human activities. Moreover, assessment and prediction of river basins’ water resources vulnerability are important means to assess the water resources security state of river basins and identify possible problems in future water resources systems. Based on the constructed indicator system of water resources vulnerability assessment in Song-Liao River Basin, this paper uses the neighborhood rough set (abbreviated as NRS) method to reduce the dimensionality of the original indicator system to remove redundant attributes. Then, assessment indicators’ standard values after dimensionality reduction are taken as the evaluation sample, and the random forest regression (abbreviated as RF) model is used to assess the water resources vulnerability of the river basin. Finally, based on data under three different future climate and socio-economic scenarios, scenario predictions are made on the vulnerability of future water resources. The results show that the overall water resources vulnerability of the Song-Liao River Basin has not improved significantly in the past 18 years, and the overall vulnerability of the Song-Liao River Basin is in the level V of moderate to high vulnerability. In the future scenario 1, the overall water resources vulnerability of the river basin will improve, and it is expected to achieve an improvement to the level III of moderate to low vulnerability. At the same time, the natural vulnerability and vulnerability of carrying capacity will increase significantly in the future, and the man-made vulnerability will increase slowly, which will deteriorate to the level V of moderate to high vulnerability under Scenario 3. Therefore, taking active measures can significantly reduce the vulnerability of nature and carrying capacity, but man-made vulnerability will become a bottleneck restricting the fragility of the overall water resources of the river basin in the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T09:40:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3a5e138968b347ceaebbdffd48975530 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1099-4300 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T09:40:00Z |
| publishDate | 2021-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Entropy |
| spelling | doaj.art-3a5e138968b347ceaebbdffd489755302023-11-22T03:45:16ZengMDPI AGEntropy1099-43002021-07-0123788210.3390/e23070882Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on a NRS-RF Model: A Case Study of the Song-Liao River Basin, ChinaWeizhong Chen0Yan Chen1Yazhong Feng2College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, ChinaCollege of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, ChinaCollege of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, ChinaThe vulnerability of water resources is an important criterion for evaluating the carrying capacity of water resources systems under the influence of climate change and human activities. Moreover, assessment and prediction of river basins’ water resources vulnerability are important means to assess the water resources security state of river basins and identify possible problems in future water resources systems. Based on the constructed indicator system of water resources vulnerability assessment in Song-Liao River Basin, this paper uses the neighborhood rough set (abbreviated as NRS) method to reduce the dimensionality of the original indicator system to remove redundant attributes. Then, assessment indicators’ standard values after dimensionality reduction are taken as the evaluation sample, and the random forest regression (abbreviated as RF) model is used to assess the water resources vulnerability of the river basin. Finally, based on data under three different future climate and socio-economic scenarios, scenario predictions are made on the vulnerability of future water resources. The results show that the overall water resources vulnerability of the Song-Liao River Basin has not improved significantly in the past 18 years, and the overall vulnerability of the Song-Liao River Basin is in the level V of moderate to high vulnerability. In the future scenario 1, the overall water resources vulnerability of the river basin will improve, and it is expected to achieve an improvement to the level III of moderate to low vulnerability. At the same time, the natural vulnerability and vulnerability of carrying capacity will increase significantly in the future, and the man-made vulnerability will increase slowly, which will deteriorate to the level V of moderate to high vulnerability under Scenario 3. Therefore, taking active measures can significantly reduce the vulnerability of nature and carrying capacity, but man-made vulnerability will become a bottleneck restricting the fragility of the overall water resources of the river basin in the future.https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/23/7/882basin water resourcesvulnerability assessmentneighborhood rough setrandom forest regressionscenario prediction |
| spellingShingle | Weizhong Chen Yan Chen Yazhong Feng Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on a NRS-RF Model: A Case Study of the Song-Liao River Basin, China Entropy basin water resources vulnerability assessment neighborhood rough set random forest regression scenario prediction |
| title | Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on a NRS-RF Model: A Case Study of the Song-Liao River Basin, China |
| title_full | Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on a NRS-RF Model: A Case Study of the Song-Liao River Basin, China |
| title_fullStr | Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on a NRS-RF Model: A Case Study of the Song-Liao River Basin, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on a NRS-RF Model: A Case Study of the Song-Liao River Basin, China |
| title_short | Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on a NRS-RF Model: A Case Study of the Song-Liao River Basin, China |
| title_sort | assessment and prediction of water resources vulnerability based on a nrs rf model a case study of the song liao river basin china |
| topic | basin water resources vulnerability assessment neighborhood rough set random forest regression scenario prediction |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/23/7/882 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT weizhongchen assessmentandpredictionofwaterresourcesvulnerabilitybasedonanrsrfmodelacasestudyofthesongliaoriverbasinchina AT yanchen assessmentandpredictionofwaterresourcesvulnerabilitybasedonanrsrfmodelacasestudyofthesongliaoriverbasinchina AT yazhongfeng assessmentandpredictionofwaterresourcesvulnerabilitybasedonanrsrfmodelacasestudyofthesongliaoriverbasinchina |