Westward Expansion by <i>Juniperus virginiana</i> of the Eastern United States and Intersection with Western <i>Juniperus</i> Species in a Novel Assemblage

Eastern redcedar (<i>Juniperus virginiana</i> L.) is increasing in density in the eastern United States and expanding in range to the west, while western <i>Juniperus</i> species also are increasing and expanding, creating the potential for a novel assemblage. I estimated ran...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Brice B. Hanberry
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2022-01-01
Series:Forests
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/1/101
Description
Summary:Eastern redcedar (<i>Juniperus virginiana</i> L.) is increasing in density in the eastern United States and expanding in range to the west, while western <i>Juniperus</i> species also are increasing and expanding, creating the potential for a novel assemblage. I estimated range expansion and intersection by comparing recent USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis surveys (mean year = 2009) to the oldest available surveys (mean year = 1981), with adjustments for sampling changes, and predicted climate envelopes during the following year ranges: 1500–1599, 1800–1849, 1850–1899, 1900–1949, and 1960–1989. During approximately 28 years, eastern redcedar range expanded by about 54 million ha (based on ≥0.5% of total stems ≥12.7 cm in diameter in ecological subsections). Combined range of western species of juniper did not expand. Range intersection of eastern redcedar and western <i>Juniperus</i> species totaled 200,000 km<sup>2</sup> and increased by 31,600 km<sup>2</sup> over time, representing a novel assemblage of eastern and western species. Predicted ranges during the other time intervals were 94% to 98% of predicted area during 1960–1989, suggesting major climate conditions have been suitable for centuries. The southern western <i>Juniperus</i> species and Rocky Mountain juniper (<i>Juniperus scopulorum</i> Sarg.) have the greatest potential for intersection with eastern redcedar, whereas eastern redcedar may have concluded westward expansion.
ISSN:1999-4907