Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on Drought Propagation in the Tarim River Basin Using Multi-Model Ensemble Projections
Recent studies on China’s arid and semi-arid regions, particularly the Tarim River Basin (TRB), have shown an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. This research examines the link between meteorological droughts, as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspi...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/1/50 |
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| author | Xiaoyun Ding Yang Yu Meilin Yang Qian Wang Lingyun Zhang Zengkun Guo Jing Zhang Ireneusz Mailik Wistuba Malgorzata Ruide Yu |
| author_facet | Xiaoyun Ding Yang Yu Meilin Yang Qian Wang Lingyun Zhang Zengkun Guo Jing Zhang Ireneusz Mailik Wistuba Malgorzata Ruide Yu |
| author_sort | Xiaoyun Ding |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Recent studies on China’s arid and semi-arid regions, particularly the Tarim River Basin (TRB), have shown an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. This research examines the link between meteorological droughts, as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and hydrological droughts, as indicated by the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and the Standardized Terrestrial Water Storage Index (STI), over various time scales. Historical data indicate that SPEI drought frequency (DF) was 14.3–21.9%, with prevalent events in the northern oases. SRI DF ranged from 9.0% to 35.8%, concentrated around the Taklamakan and Kumtag Deserts, while STI DF varied between 4.4% and 32.7%, averaging 15% basin-wide. Future projections show an increased DF of SPEI in deserts and a decrease in oases; SRI DF decreased in deserts but increased in oases. STI changes were more moderate. The study also found a higher risk of drought progression from SPEI to SRI in the southwestern and northeastern oases, exceeding 50% probability, while central and eastern TRB had lower risks. The western TRB and inner Taklamakan Desert faced higher risks of SPEI to STI progression, with probabilities over 45%, in contrast to the lower risks in the eastern and central oases. The concurrence of SRI/STI with moderate to extreme SPEI droughts led to a higher probability and area of SRI/STI droughts, whereas consistent SPEI types showed a reduced induced probability and extent of SRI/STI droughts. This study enhances the understanding of drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological droughts in the TRB and contributes to the prevention of hydrological drought to a certain extent. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T11:06:09Z |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T11:06:09Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-3a90d7ef912a4a4bab05d7e82ab96b892024-01-26T15:01:52ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332023-12-011515010.3390/atmos15010050Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on Drought Propagation in the Tarim River Basin Using Multi-Model Ensemble ProjectionsXiaoyun Ding0Yang Yu1Meilin Yang2Qian Wang3Lingyun Zhang4Zengkun Guo5Jing Zhang6Ireneusz Mailik7Wistuba Malgorzata8Ruide Yu9State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaRecent studies on China’s arid and semi-arid regions, particularly the Tarim River Basin (TRB), have shown an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. This research examines the link between meteorological droughts, as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and hydrological droughts, as indicated by the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and the Standardized Terrestrial Water Storage Index (STI), over various time scales. Historical data indicate that SPEI drought frequency (DF) was 14.3–21.9%, with prevalent events in the northern oases. SRI DF ranged from 9.0% to 35.8%, concentrated around the Taklamakan and Kumtag Deserts, while STI DF varied between 4.4% and 32.7%, averaging 15% basin-wide. Future projections show an increased DF of SPEI in deserts and a decrease in oases; SRI DF decreased in deserts but increased in oases. STI changes were more moderate. The study also found a higher risk of drought progression from SPEI to SRI in the southwestern and northeastern oases, exceeding 50% probability, while central and eastern TRB had lower risks. The western TRB and inner Taklamakan Desert faced higher risks of SPEI to STI progression, with probabilities over 45%, in contrast to the lower risks in the eastern and central oases. The concurrence of SRI/STI with moderate to extreme SPEI droughts led to a higher probability and area of SRI/STI droughts, whereas consistent SPEI types showed a reduced induced probability and extent of SRI/STI droughts. This study enhances the understanding of drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological droughts in the TRB and contributes to the prevention of hydrological drought to a certain extent.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/1/50drought propagationSPEISRISTICMIP6conditional probability |
| spellingShingle | Xiaoyun Ding Yang Yu Meilin Yang Qian Wang Lingyun Zhang Zengkun Guo Jing Zhang Ireneusz Mailik Wistuba Malgorzata Ruide Yu Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on Drought Propagation in the Tarim River Basin Using Multi-Model Ensemble Projections Atmosphere drought propagation SPEI SRI STI CMIP6 conditional probability |
| title | Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on Drought Propagation in the Tarim River Basin Using Multi-Model Ensemble Projections |
| title_full | Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on Drought Propagation in the Tarim River Basin Using Multi-Model Ensemble Projections |
| title_fullStr | Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on Drought Propagation in the Tarim River Basin Using Multi-Model Ensemble Projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on Drought Propagation in the Tarim River Basin Using Multi-Model Ensemble Projections |
| title_short | Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on Drought Propagation in the Tarim River Basin Using Multi-Model Ensemble Projections |
| title_sort | investigating the effect of climate change on drought propagation in the tarim river basin using multi model ensemble projections |
| topic | drought propagation SPEI SRI STI CMIP6 conditional probability |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/1/50 |
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