Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020
Since December 2019, when the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858....
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2020-06-01
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| Series: | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_article |
| _version_ | 1819173329061281792 |
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| author | Kenji Mizumoto Gerardo Chowell |
| author_facet | Kenji Mizumoto Gerardo Chowell |
| author_sort | Kenji Mizumoto |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Since December 2019, when the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858. We estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Wuhan, as well as for China excluding Wuhan, to assess the severity of the epidemic in the country. Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas. The elevated death risk estimates are probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system, indicating that enhanced public health interventions, including social distancing and movement restrictions, should be implemented to bring the COVID-19 epidemic under control. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T20:21:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3b0319fb4e2b4f68b49614220dfa1244 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1080-6040 1080-6059 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T20:21:20Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-3b0319fb4e2b4f68b49614220dfa12442022-12-21T18:13:50ZengCenters for Disease Control and PreventionEmerging Infectious Diseases1080-60401080-60592020-06-012661251125610.3201/eid2606.200233Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020Kenji MizumotoGerardo ChowellSince December 2019, when the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858. We estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Wuhan, as well as for China excluding Wuhan, to assess the severity of the epidemic in the country. Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas. The elevated death risk estimates are probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system, indicating that enhanced public health interventions, including social distancing and movement restrictions, should be implemented to bring the COVID-19 epidemic under control.https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_articleoutbreakCOVID-19death riskvirusescoronavirus2019 novel coronavirus disease |
| spellingShingle | Kenji Mizumoto Gerardo Chowell Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020 Emerging Infectious Diseases outbreak COVID-19 death risk viruses coronavirus 2019 novel coronavirus disease |
| title | Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020 |
| title_full | Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020 |
| title_fullStr | Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020 |
| title_short | Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020 |
| title_sort | estimating risk for death from coronavirus disease china january february 2020 |
| topic | outbreak COVID-19 death risk viruses coronavirus 2019 novel coronavirus disease |
| url | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_article |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kenjimizumoto estimatingriskfordeathfromcoronavirusdiseasechinajanuaryfebruary2020 AT gerardochowell estimatingriskfordeathfromcoronavirusdiseasechinajanuaryfebruary2020 |