Sensitivity of grain yields to historical climate variability in India
Fluctuations in temperature and precipitation influence crop productivity across the planet. With episodes of extreme climate becoming increasingly frequent, buffering crop production against these stresses is a critical aspect of climate adaptation. In India, where grain production and diets are cl...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab22db |
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| author | Kyle Frankel Davis Ashwini Chhatre Narasimha D Rao Deepti Singh Ruth DeFries |
| author_facet | Kyle Frankel Davis Ashwini Chhatre Narasimha D Rao Deepti Singh Ruth DeFries |
| author_sort | Kyle Frankel Davis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Fluctuations in temperature and precipitation influence crop productivity across the planet. With episodes of extreme climate becoming increasingly frequent, buffering crop production against these stresses is a critical aspect of climate adaptation. In India, where grain production and diets are closely linked, national food supply is sensitive to the effect of climate variability on monsoon grain production. Here we quantitatively examine the historical (1966–2011) relationship between interannual variations in temperature and rainfall and rainfed yield variability for five monsoon crops—rice and four alternative grains (finger millet, maize, pearl millet, and sorghum). Compared to rice, we find that alternative grains are significantly less sensitive to climate variation and generally experience smaller declines in yield under climate extremes. However, maximizing harvested area allocations to coarse grains (i.e. holding maize production constant) reduced grain production by 12.0 Mtonnes (−17.2%) under drought conditions and 12.8 Mtonnes (−18.0%) during non-drought years (non-drought). Increasing the harvested area allocated to all alternative grains (i.e. including maize) can enhance production by +39.6% (drought) and by +37.0% (non-drought). These alternative grains therefore offer promise for reducing variations in Indian grain production in response to climate shocks, but avoiding grain production shortfalls from increased alternative grains will require yield improvements that do not compromise their superior climate resilience. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3b08cf4cf3b4477b957977cf2faab6b6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:26Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-3b08cf4cf3b4477b957977cf2faab6b62023-08-09T14:43:31ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262019-01-0114606401310.1088/1748-9326/ab22dbSensitivity of grain yields to historical climate variability in IndiaKyle Frankel Davis0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4504-1407Ashwini Chhatre1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5374-7867Narasimha D Rao2Deepti Singh3Ruth DeFries4Department of Geography, University of Delaware , Newark, DE 19716, United States of America; Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Delaware , Newark, DE 19716, United States of America; Data Science Institute, Columbia University , New York, NY 10025, United States of AmericaIndian School of Business, Hyderabad, IndiaSchool of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University , New Haven, CT 06511, United States of America; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , Laxenburg, AustriaSchool of the Environment, Washington State University , Vancouver, WA 99164, United States of AmericaDepartment of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology, Columbia University , New York, NY 10027, United States of AmericaFluctuations in temperature and precipitation influence crop productivity across the planet. With episodes of extreme climate becoming increasingly frequent, buffering crop production against these stresses is a critical aspect of climate adaptation. In India, where grain production and diets are closely linked, national food supply is sensitive to the effect of climate variability on monsoon grain production. Here we quantitatively examine the historical (1966–2011) relationship between interannual variations in temperature and rainfall and rainfed yield variability for five monsoon crops—rice and four alternative grains (finger millet, maize, pearl millet, and sorghum). Compared to rice, we find that alternative grains are significantly less sensitive to climate variation and generally experience smaller declines in yield under climate extremes. However, maximizing harvested area allocations to coarse grains (i.e. holding maize production constant) reduced grain production by 12.0 Mtonnes (−17.2%) under drought conditions and 12.8 Mtonnes (−18.0%) during non-drought years (non-drought). Increasing the harvested area allocated to all alternative grains (i.e. including maize) can enhance production by +39.6% (drought) and by +37.0% (non-drought). These alternative grains therefore offer promise for reducing variations in Indian grain production in response to climate shocks, but avoiding grain production shortfalls from increased alternative grains will require yield improvements that do not compromise their superior climate resilience.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab22dbclimate variabilitycrop productionIndiayield variationricemonsoon |
| spellingShingle | Kyle Frankel Davis Ashwini Chhatre Narasimha D Rao Deepti Singh Ruth DeFries Sensitivity of grain yields to historical climate variability in India Environmental Research Letters climate variability crop production India yield variation rice monsoon |
| title | Sensitivity of grain yields to historical climate variability in India |
| title_full | Sensitivity of grain yields to historical climate variability in India |
| title_fullStr | Sensitivity of grain yields to historical climate variability in India |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sensitivity of grain yields to historical climate variability in India |
| title_short | Sensitivity of grain yields to historical climate variability in India |
| title_sort | sensitivity of grain yields to historical climate variability in india |
| topic | climate variability crop production India yield variation rice monsoon |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab22db |
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