Understanding the infection severity and epidemiological characteristics of mpox in the UK
Abstract In May 2022, individuals infected with the monkeypox virus were detected in the UK without clear travel links to endemic areas. Understanding the clinical characteristics and infection severity of mpox is necessary for effective public health policy. The study period of this paper, from the...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45110-8 |
| _version_ | 1797259138510618624 |
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| author | Thomas Ward Christopher E. Overton Robert S. Paton Rachel Christie Fergus Cumming Martyn Fyles |
| author_facet | Thomas Ward Christopher E. Overton Robert S. Paton Rachel Christie Fergus Cumming Martyn Fyles |
| author_sort | Thomas Ward |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In May 2022, individuals infected with the monkeypox virus were detected in the UK without clear travel links to endemic areas. Understanding the clinical characteristics and infection severity of mpox is necessary for effective public health policy. The study period of this paper, from the 1st June 2022 to 30th September 2022, included 3,375 individuals that tested positive for the monkeypox virus. The posterior mean times from infection to hospital admission and length of hospital stay were 14.89 days (95% Credible Intervals (CrI): 13.60, 16.32) and 7.07 days (95% CrI: 6.07, 8.23), respectively. We estimated the modelled Infection Hospitalisation Risk to be 4.13% (95% CrI: 3.04, 5.02), compared to the overall sample Case Hospitalisation Risk (CHR) of 5.10% (95% CrI: 4.38, 5.86). The overall sample CHR was estimated to be 17.86% (95% CrI: 6.06, 33.11) for females and 4.99% (95% CrI: 4.27, 5.75) for males. A notable difference was observed between the CHRs that were estimated for each sex, which may be indicative of increased infection severity in females or a considerably lower infection ascertainment rate. It was estimated that 74.65% (95% CrI: 55.78, 86.85) of infections with the monkeypox virus in the UK were captured over the outbreak. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T23:04:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3b1c7049921c4113a259617b27ceaabf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T23:04:40Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-3b1c7049921c4113a259617b27ceaabf2024-03-17T12:30:37ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232024-03-0115111210.1038/s41467-024-45110-8Understanding the infection severity and epidemiological characteristics of mpox in the UKThomas Ward0Christopher E. Overton1Robert S. Paton2Rachel Christie3Fergus Cumming4Martyn Fyles5UK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & SurveillanceUK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & SurveillanceUK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & SurveillanceUK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & SurveillanceUK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & SurveillanceUK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & SurveillanceAbstract In May 2022, individuals infected with the monkeypox virus were detected in the UK without clear travel links to endemic areas. Understanding the clinical characteristics and infection severity of mpox is necessary for effective public health policy. The study period of this paper, from the 1st June 2022 to 30th September 2022, included 3,375 individuals that tested positive for the monkeypox virus. The posterior mean times from infection to hospital admission and length of hospital stay were 14.89 days (95% Credible Intervals (CrI): 13.60, 16.32) and 7.07 days (95% CrI: 6.07, 8.23), respectively. We estimated the modelled Infection Hospitalisation Risk to be 4.13% (95% CrI: 3.04, 5.02), compared to the overall sample Case Hospitalisation Risk (CHR) of 5.10% (95% CrI: 4.38, 5.86). The overall sample CHR was estimated to be 17.86% (95% CrI: 6.06, 33.11) for females and 4.99% (95% CrI: 4.27, 5.75) for males. A notable difference was observed between the CHRs that were estimated for each sex, which may be indicative of increased infection severity in females or a considerably lower infection ascertainment rate. It was estimated that 74.65% (95% CrI: 55.78, 86.85) of infections with the monkeypox virus in the UK were captured over the outbreak.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45110-8 |
| spellingShingle | Thomas Ward Christopher E. Overton Robert S. Paton Rachel Christie Fergus Cumming Martyn Fyles Understanding the infection severity and epidemiological characteristics of mpox in the UK Nature Communications |
| title | Understanding the infection severity and epidemiological characteristics of mpox in the UK |
| title_full | Understanding the infection severity and epidemiological characteristics of mpox in the UK |
| title_fullStr | Understanding the infection severity and epidemiological characteristics of mpox in the UK |
| title_full_unstemmed | Understanding the infection severity and epidemiological characteristics of mpox in the UK |
| title_short | Understanding the infection severity and epidemiological characteristics of mpox in the UK |
| title_sort | understanding the infection severity and epidemiological characteristics of mpox in the uk |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45110-8 |
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