Global, regional, and national time trends in cancer mortality attributable to high fasting plasma glucose: an age-period cohort analysis
Abstract Background High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) is the fastest-growing risk factor for cancer deaths worldwide. We reported the cancer mortality attributable to HFPG at global, regional, and national levels over the past three decades and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. Metho...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMC
2023-07-01
|
| Series: | BMC Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-16076-x |
| _version_ | 1827899602795233280 |
|---|---|
| author | Jing Xie Zeye Liu Liqun Ren Liyun He Shan Lu Xiangzhi Meng Xin Zhang Zhanhao Su Shenqi Jing Tao Shan Junjie Wang Ruibing Xia Wei Feng Yakun Li Naifeng Liu Yun Liu |
| author_facet | Jing Xie Zeye Liu Liqun Ren Liyun He Shan Lu Xiangzhi Meng Xin Zhang Zhanhao Su Shenqi Jing Tao Shan Junjie Wang Ruibing Xia Wei Feng Yakun Li Naifeng Liu Yun Liu |
| author_sort | Jing Xie |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) is the fastest-growing risk factor for cancer deaths worldwide. We reported the cancer mortality attributable to HFPG at global, regional, and national levels over the past three decades and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. Methods Data for this study were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and we used age-period-cohort modelling to estimate age, cohort and period effects, as well as net drift (overall annual percentage change) and local drift (annual percentage change in each age group). Results Over the past 30 years, the global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) attributable to HFPG has increased by 27.8%. The ASMR in 2019 was highest in the male population in high sociodemographic index (SDI) areas (8.70; 95% CI, 2.23–18.04). The net drift for mortality was highest in the female population in low SDI areas (2.33; 95% CI, 2.12–2.55). Unfavourable period and cohort effects were found across all SDI quintiles. Cancer subtypes such as "trachea, bronchus, and lung cancers", "colon and rectal cancers", "breast cancer" and "pancreatic cancer" exhibited similar trends. Conclusions The cancer mortality attributable to HFPG has surged during the past three decades. Unfavourable age-period-cohort effects on mortality were observed across all SDI quintiles, and the cancer mortality attributable to HFPG is expected to continue to increase rapidly in the future, particularly in lower SDI locations. This is a grim global public health issue that requires immediate attention. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T23:20:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3bdecfb93a894ccd9b2cc3412ed759a6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T23:20:09Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-3bdecfb93a894ccd9b2cc3412ed759a62023-07-16T11:30:25ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582023-07-0123111410.1186/s12889-023-16076-xGlobal, regional, and national time trends in cancer mortality attributable to high fasting plasma glucose: an age-period cohort analysisJing Xie0Zeye Liu1Liqun Ren2Liyun He3Shan Lu4Xiangzhi Meng5Xin Zhang6Zhanhao Su7Shenqi Jing8Tao Shan9Junjie Wang10Ruibing Xia11Wei Feng12Yakun Li13Naifeng Liu14Yun Liu15Department of Pharmacy, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast UniversityNational Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical CollegeDepartment of Gerontology, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast UniversityDepartment of Endocrinology, Key Laboratory of Endocrinology of National Health Commission, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical CollegeDepartment of Outpatient, The First Affiliated Hospital, Nanjing Medical UniversityDepartment of Thoracic Surgical Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeDepartment of Information, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical UniversityGuangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical SciencesDepartment of Information, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical UniversityDepartment of Outpatient, The First Affiliated Hospital, Nanjing Medical UniversityDepartment of Medical Informatics, School of Biomedical Engineering and Informatics, Nanjing Medical UniversityDepartment of Medicine, University Hospital Munich, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich (LMU)Department of Medical Informatics, School of Biomedical Engineering and Informatics, Nanjing Medical UniversityLaboratory of Experimental Intensive Care and Anesthesiology, Academic Medical CenterDepartment of Pharmacy, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast UniversityDepartment of Information, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical UniversityAbstract Background High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) is the fastest-growing risk factor for cancer deaths worldwide. We reported the cancer mortality attributable to HFPG at global, regional, and national levels over the past three decades and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. Methods Data for this study were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and we used age-period-cohort modelling to estimate age, cohort and period effects, as well as net drift (overall annual percentage change) and local drift (annual percentage change in each age group). Results Over the past 30 years, the global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) attributable to HFPG has increased by 27.8%. The ASMR in 2019 was highest in the male population in high sociodemographic index (SDI) areas (8.70; 95% CI, 2.23–18.04). The net drift for mortality was highest in the female population in low SDI areas (2.33; 95% CI, 2.12–2.55). Unfavourable period and cohort effects were found across all SDI quintiles. Cancer subtypes such as "trachea, bronchus, and lung cancers", "colon and rectal cancers", "breast cancer" and "pancreatic cancer" exhibited similar trends. Conclusions The cancer mortality attributable to HFPG has surged during the past three decades. Unfavourable age-period-cohort effects on mortality were observed across all SDI quintiles, and the cancer mortality attributable to HFPG is expected to continue to increase rapidly in the future, particularly in lower SDI locations. This is a grim global public health issue that requires immediate attention.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-16076-xCancerhigh fasting plasma glucoseMortalityAge-period- cohort |
| spellingShingle | Jing Xie Zeye Liu Liqun Ren Liyun He Shan Lu Xiangzhi Meng Xin Zhang Zhanhao Su Shenqi Jing Tao Shan Junjie Wang Ruibing Xia Wei Feng Yakun Li Naifeng Liu Yun Liu Global, regional, and national time trends in cancer mortality attributable to high fasting plasma glucose: an age-period cohort analysis BMC Public Health Cancer high fasting plasma glucose Mortality Age-period- cohort |
| title | Global, regional, and national time trends in cancer mortality attributable to high fasting plasma glucose: an age-period cohort analysis |
| title_full | Global, regional, and national time trends in cancer mortality attributable to high fasting plasma glucose: an age-period cohort analysis |
| title_fullStr | Global, regional, and national time trends in cancer mortality attributable to high fasting plasma glucose: an age-period cohort analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global, regional, and national time trends in cancer mortality attributable to high fasting plasma glucose: an age-period cohort analysis |
| title_short | Global, regional, and national time trends in cancer mortality attributable to high fasting plasma glucose: an age-period cohort analysis |
| title_sort | global regional and national time trends in cancer mortality attributable to high fasting plasma glucose an age period cohort analysis |
| topic | Cancer high fasting plasma glucose Mortality Age-period- cohort |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-16076-x |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jingxie globalregionalandnationaltimetrendsincancermortalityattributabletohighfastingplasmaglucoseanageperiodcohortanalysis AT zeyeliu globalregionalandnationaltimetrendsincancermortalityattributabletohighfastingplasmaglucoseanageperiodcohortanalysis AT liqunren globalregionalandnationaltimetrendsincancermortalityattributabletohighfastingplasmaglucoseanageperiodcohortanalysis AT liyunhe globalregionalandnationaltimetrendsincancermortalityattributabletohighfastingplasmaglucoseanageperiodcohortanalysis AT shanlu globalregionalandnationaltimetrendsincancermortalityattributabletohighfastingplasmaglucoseanageperiodcohortanalysis AT xiangzhimeng globalregionalandnationaltimetrendsincancermortalityattributabletohighfastingplasmaglucoseanageperiodcohortanalysis AT xinzhang globalregionalandnationaltimetrendsincancermortalityattributabletohighfastingplasmaglucoseanageperiodcohortanalysis AT zhanhaosu globalregionalandnationaltimetrendsincancermortalityattributabletohighfastingplasmaglucoseanageperiodcohortanalysis AT shenqijing globalregionalandnationaltimetrendsincancermortalityattributabletohighfastingplasmaglucoseanageperiodcohortanalysis AT taoshan globalregionalandnationaltimetrendsincancermortalityattributabletohighfastingplasmaglucoseanageperiodcohortanalysis AT junjiewang globalregionalandnationaltimetrendsincancermortalityattributabletohighfastingplasmaglucoseanageperiodcohortanalysis AT ruibingxia globalregionalandnationaltimetrendsincancermortalityattributabletohighfastingplasmaglucoseanageperiodcohortanalysis AT weifeng globalregionalandnationaltimetrendsincancermortalityattributabletohighfastingplasmaglucoseanageperiodcohortanalysis AT yakunli globalregionalandnationaltimetrendsincancermortalityattributabletohighfastingplasmaglucoseanageperiodcohortanalysis AT naifengliu globalregionalandnationaltimetrendsincancermortalityattributabletohighfastingplasmaglucoseanageperiodcohortanalysis AT yunliu globalregionalandnationaltimetrendsincancermortalityattributabletohighfastingplasmaglucoseanageperiodcohortanalysis |