An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent Steering
Abstract An open‐source, physics‐based tropical cyclone (TC) downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of TCs. The model is composed of three primary components: (a) a random seeding process that determines genesis, (b) an intensity‐dependent beta‐advection model that...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2023-11-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003686 |
| _version_ | 1797449135453896704 |
|---|---|
| author | Jonathan Lin Raphael Rousseau‐Rizzi Chia‐Ying Lee Adam Sobel |
| author_facet | Jonathan Lin Raphael Rousseau‐Rizzi Chia‐Ying Lee Adam Sobel |
| author_sort | Jonathan Lin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract An open‐source, physics‐based tropical cyclone (TC) downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of TCs. The model is composed of three primary components: (a) a random seeding process that determines genesis, (b) an intensity‐dependent beta‐advection model that determines the track, and (c) a non‐linear differential equation set that determines the intensification rate. The model is entirely forced by the large‐scale environment. Downscaling ERA5 reanalysis data shows that the model is generally able to reproduce observed TC climatology, such as the global seasonal cycle, genesis locations, track density, and lifetime maximum intensity distributions. Inter‐annual variability in TC count and power‐dissipation is also well captured, on both basin‐wide and global scales. Regional TC hazard estimated by this model is also analyzed using return period maps and curves. In particular, the model is able to reasonably capture the observed return period curves of landfall intensity in various sub‐basins around the globe. The incorporation of an intensity‐dependent steering flow is shown to lead to regionally dependent changes in power dissipation and return periods. Advantages and disadvantages of this model, compared to other downscaling models, are also discussed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:21:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3c182bc99fa141778fe78fd101626830 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1942-2466 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:21:24Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
| spelling | doaj.art-3c182bc99fa141778fe78fd1016268302023-11-28T11:14:30ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems1942-24662023-11-011511n/an/a10.1029/2023MS003686An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent SteeringJonathan Lin0Raphael Rousseau‐Rizzi1Chia‐Ying Lee2Adam Sobel3Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USAInstitute of Geography University of Bern Bern SwitzerlandLamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USALamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USAAbstract An open‐source, physics‐based tropical cyclone (TC) downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of TCs. The model is composed of three primary components: (a) a random seeding process that determines genesis, (b) an intensity‐dependent beta‐advection model that determines the track, and (c) a non‐linear differential equation set that determines the intensification rate. The model is entirely forced by the large‐scale environment. Downscaling ERA5 reanalysis data shows that the model is generally able to reproduce observed TC climatology, such as the global seasonal cycle, genesis locations, track density, and lifetime maximum intensity distributions. Inter‐annual variability in TC count and power‐dissipation is also well captured, on both basin‐wide and global scales. Regional TC hazard estimated by this model is also analyzed using return period maps and curves. In particular, the model is able to reasonably capture the observed return period curves of landfall intensity in various sub‐basins around the globe. The incorporation of an intensity‐dependent steering flow is shown to lead to regionally dependent changes in power dissipation and return periods. Advantages and disadvantages of this model, compared to other downscaling models, are also discussed.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003686tropical cycloneshazarddownscalingopen‐source |
| spellingShingle | Jonathan Lin Raphael Rousseau‐Rizzi Chia‐Ying Lee Adam Sobel An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent Steering Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems tropical cyclones hazard downscaling open‐source |
| title | An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent Steering |
| title_full | An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent Steering |
| title_fullStr | An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent Steering |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent Steering |
| title_short | An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent Steering |
| title_sort | open source physics based tropical cyclone downscaling model with intensity dependent steering |
| topic | tropical cyclones hazard downscaling open‐source |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003686 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jonathanlin anopensourcephysicsbasedtropicalcyclonedownscalingmodelwithintensitydependentsteering AT raphaelrousseaurizzi anopensourcephysicsbasedtropicalcyclonedownscalingmodelwithintensitydependentsteering AT chiayinglee anopensourcephysicsbasedtropicalcyclonedownscalingmodelwithintensitydependentsteering AT adamsobel anopensourcephysicsbasedtropicalcyclonedownscalingmodelwithintensitydependentsteering AT jonathanlin opensourcephysicsbasedtropicalcyclonedownscalingmodelwithintensitydependentsteering AT raphaelrousseaurizzi opensourcephysicsbasedtropicalcyclonedownscalingmodelwithintensitydependentsteering AT chiayinglee opensourcephysicsbasedtropicalcyclonedownscalingmodelwithintensitydependentsteering AT adamsobel opensourcephysicsbasedtropicalcyclonedownscalingmodelwithintensitydependentsteering |