Assessing the impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions: current and future modelled scenarios
<p>A first regional assessment of the impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions was conducted in this study. Model simulations were carried out on a limited-area domain (at 15 km horizontal resolution) centred over the Canadian Arct...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2018-11-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/16653/2018/acp-18-16653-2018.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818418307677552640 |
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| author | W. Gong S. R. Beagley S. Cousineau M. Sassi R. Munoz-Alpizar S. Ménard J. Racine J. Zhang J. Chen H. Morrison S. Sharma L. Huang P. Bellavance J. Ly P. Izdebski L. Lyons R. Holt |
| author_facet | W. Gong S. R. Beagley S. Cousineau M. Sassi R. Munoz-Alpizar S. Ménard J. Racine J. Zhang J. Chen H. Morrison S. Sharma L. Huang P. Bellavance J. Ly P. Izdebski L. Lyons R. Holt |
| author_sort | W. Gong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>A first regional assessment of the impact of shipping emissions on air
pollution in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions was conducted in this
study. Model simulations were carried out on a limited-area domain (at 15 km
horizontal resolution) centred over the Canadian Arctic, using the
Environment and Climate Change Canada's on-line air quality forecast model, GEM-MACH (Global
Environmental Multi-scale – Modelling
Air quality and CHemistry), to investigate the contribution from the marine shipping
emissions over the Canadian Arctic waters (at both present and projected
future levels) to ambient concentrations of criteria pollutants (O<sub>3</sub>,
PM<sub>2.5</sub>, NO<sub>2</sub>, and SO<sub>2</sub>), atmospheric deposition of sulfur (S) and
nitrogen (N), and atmospheric loading and deposition of black carbon (BC) in the Arctic.
Several model upgrades were introduced for this study, including the
treatment of sea ice in the dry deposition parameterization, chemical lateral
boundary conditions, and the inclusion of North American wildfire emissions.
The model is shown to have similar skills in predicting ambient O<sub>3</sub> and
PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions, as the
current operational air quality forecast models in North America and Europe.
In particular, the model is able to simulate the observed O<sub>3</sub> and PM
components well at the Canadian high Arctic site, Alert. The model assessment
shows that, at the current (2010) level, Arctic shipping emissions contribute
to less than 1 % of ambient O<sub>3</sub> concentration over the eastern Canadian
Arctic and between 1 and 5 % of ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration over the
shipping channels. Arctic shipping emissions make a much greater
contributions to the ambient NO<sub>2</sub> and SO<sub>2</sub> concentrations, at 10 %–50 % and 20 %–100 %, respectively. At the projected 2030
business-as-usual (BAU) level, the impact of Arctic shipping emissions is
predicted to increase to up to 5 % in ambient O<sub>3</sub> concentration over a
broad region of the Canadian Arctic and to 5 %–20 % in ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub>
concentration over the shipping channels. In contrast, if emission controls
such as the ones implemented in the current North American Emission Control
Area (NA ECA) are to be put in place over the Canadian Arctic waters, the
impact of shipping to ambient criteria pollutants would be significantly
reduced. For example, with NA-ECA-like controls, the shipping contributions
to the population-weighted concentrations of SO<sub>2</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> would be
brought down to below the current level. The contribution of Canadian Arctic
shipping to the atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen is small at
the current level, < 5 %, but is expected to increase to up to
20 % for sulfur and 50 % for nitrogen under the 2030 BAU scenario. At
the current level, Canadian Arctic shipping also makes only small
contributions to BC column loading and BC deposition, with < 0.1 % on
average and up to 2 % locally over the eastern Canadian Arctic for the former,
and between 0.1 % and 0.5 % over the shipping channels for the latter. The
impacts are again predicted to increase at the projected 2030 BAU level,
particularly over the Baffin Island and Baffin Bay area in response to the
projected increase in ship traffic there, e.g., up to 15 % on BC column
loading and locally exceeding 30 % on BC deposition. Overall, the study
indicates that shipping-induced changes in atmospheric composition and
deposition are at regional to local scales (particularly in the Arctic).
Climate feedbacks are thus likely to act at these scales, so climate impact
assessments will require modelling undertaken at much finer resolutions than
those used in the existing radiative forcing and climate impact assessments.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T12:20:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3c2cf40b92594e3c9663a3a65b072f29 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T12:20:36Z |
| publishDate | 2018-11-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-3c2cf40b92594e3c9663a3a65b072f292022-12-21T23:01:29ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242018-11-0118166531668710.5194/acp-18-16653-2018Assessing the impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions: current and future modelled scenariosW. Gong0S. R. Beagley1S. Cousineau2M. Sassi3R. Munoz-Alpizar4S. Ménard5J. Racine6J. Zhang7J. Chen8H. Morrison9S. Sharma10L. Huang11P. Bellavance12J. Ly13P. Izdebski14L. Lyons15R. Holt16Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, M3H 5T4, CanadaScience and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, M3H 5T4, CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Quebec, H9P 1J3, CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Quebec, H9P 1J3, CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Quebec, H9P 1J3, CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Quebec, H9P 1J3, CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Quebec, H9P 1J3, CanadaScience and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, M3H 5T4, CanadaScience and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, K1V 1C7, CanadaScience and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, M3H 5T4, CanadaScience and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, M3H 5T4, CanadaScience and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, M3H 5T4, CanadaEnvironmental Protection Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Gatineau, Quebec, K1A 0H3, CanadaEnvironmental Protection Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Gatineau, Quebec, K1A 0H3, CanadaEnvironmental Protection Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, M3H 5T4, CanadaEnvironmental Protection Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Gatineau, Quebec, K1A 0H3, CanadaEnvironmental Protection Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Vancouver, British Columbia, V6C 3S5, Canada<p>A first regional assessment of the impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions was conducted in this study. Model simulations were carried out on a limited-area domain (at 15 km horizontal resolution) centred over the Canadian Arctic, using the Environment and Climate Change Canada's on-line air quality forecast model, GEM-MACH (Global Environmental Multi-scale – Modelling Air quality and CHemistry), to investigate the contribution from the marine shipping emissions over the Canadian Arctic waters (at both present and projected future levels) to ambient concentrations of criteria pollutants (O<sub>3</sub>, PM<sub>2.5</sub>, NO<sub>2</sub>, and SO<sub>2</sub>), atmospheric deposition of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N), and atmospheric loading and deposition of black carbon (BC) in the Arctic. Several model upgrades were introduced for this study, including the treatment of sea ice in the dry deposition parameterization, chemical lateral boundary conditions, and the inclusion of North American wildfire emissions. The model is shown to have similar skills in predicting ambient O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions, as the current operational air quality forecast models in North America and Europe. In particular, the model is able to simulate the observed O<sub>3</sub> and PM components well at the Canadian high Arctic site, Alert. The model assessment shows that, at the current (2010) level, Arctic shipping emissions contribute to less than 1 % of ambient O<sub>3</sub> concentration over the eastern Canadian Arctic and between 1 and 5 % of ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration over the shipping channels. Arctic shipping emissions make a much greater contributions to the ambient NO<sub>2</sub> and SO<sub>2</sub> concentrations, at 10 %–50 % and 20 %–100 %, respectively. At the projected 2030 business-as-usual (BAU) level, the impact of Arctic shipping emissions is predicted to increase to up to 5 % in ambient O<sub>3</sub> concentration over a broad region of the Canadian Arctic and to 5 %–20 % in ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration over the shipping channels. In contrast, if emission controls such as the ones implemented in the current North American Emission Control Area (NA ECA) are to be put in place over the Canadian Arctic waters, the impact of shipping to ambient criteria pollutants would be significantly reduced. For example, with NA-ECA-like controls, the shipping contributions to the population-weighted concentrations of SO<sub>2</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> would be brought down to below the current level. The contribution of Canadian Arctic shipping to the atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen is small at the current level, < 5 %, but is expected to increase to up to 20 % for sulfur and 50 % for nitrogen under the 2030 BAU scenario. At the current level, Canadian Arctic shipping also makes only small contributions to BC column loading and BC deposition, with < 0.1 % on average and up to 2 % locally over the eastern Canadian Arctic for the former, and between 0.1 % and 0.5 % over the shipping channels for the latter. The impacts are again predicted to increase at the projected 2030 BAU level, particularly over the Baffin Island and Baffin Bay area in response to the projected increase in ship traffic there, e.g., up to 15 % on BC column loading and locally exceeding 30 % on BC deposition. Overall, the study indicates that shipping-induced changes in atmospheric composition and deposition are at regional to local scales (particularly in the Arctic). Climate feedbacks are thus likely to act at these scales, so climate impact assessments will require modelling undertaken at much finer resolutions than those used in the existing radiative forcing and climate impact assessments.</p>https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/16653/2018/acp-18-16653-2018.pdf |
| spellingShingle | W. Gong S. R. Beagley S. Cousineau M. Sassi R. Munoz-Alpizar S. Ménard J. Racine J. Zhang J. Chen H. Morrison S. Sharma L. Huang P. Bellavance J. Ly P. Izdebski L. Lyons R. Holt Assessing the impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions: current and future modelled scenarios Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Assessing the impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions: current and future modelled scenarios |
| title_full | Assessing the impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions: current and future modelled scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions: current and future modelled scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions: current and future modelled scenarios |
| title_short | Assessing the impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions: current and future modelled scenarios |
| title_sort | assessing the impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the canadian arctic and northern regions current and future modelled scenarios |
| url | https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/16653/2018/acp-18-16653-2018.pdf |
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