A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule
This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER) rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the stren...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2017-02-01
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| Series: | Systems |
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| Online Access: | http://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/5/1/9 |
| _version_ | 1811262957103874048 |
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| author | Xiaoxiao Ji Jiang Jiang Jianbin Sun Yu-Wang Chen |
| author_facet | Xiaoxiao Ji Jiang Jiang Jianbin Sun Yu-Wang Chen |
| author_sort | Xiaoxiao Ji |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER) rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1) formulation of risk assessment hierarchy; (2) representation of both qualitative and quantitative information; (3) elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities; (4) aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5) quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T19:36:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3c75c5abf38d42ec8fb3ea71e7798aae |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2079-8954 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T19:36:12Z |
| publishDate | 2017-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Systems |
| spelling | doaj.art-3c75c5abf38d42ec8fb3ea71e7798aae2022-12-22T03:19:12ZengMDPI AGSystems2079-89542017-02-0151910.3390/systems5010009systems5010009A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning RuleXiaoxiao Ji0Jiang Jiang1Jianbin Sun2Yu-Wang Chen3College of Information System and Management, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, ChinaCollege of Information System and Management, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, ChinaCollege of Information System and Management, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, ChinaAlliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester, Manchester M15 6PB, UKThis paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER) rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1) formulation of risk assessment hierarchy; (2) representation of both qualitative and quantitative information; (3) elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities; (4) aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5) quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.http://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/5/1/9risk assessmentevidential reasoningfire/explosion |
| spellingShingle | Xiaoxiao Ji Jiang Jiang Jianbin Sun Yu-Wang Chen A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule Systems risk assessment evidential reasoning fire/explosion |
| title | A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule |
| title_full | A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule |
| title_fullStr | A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule |
| title_short | A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule |
| title_sort | hierarchal risk assessment model using the evidential reasoning rule |
| topic | risk assessment evidential reasoning fire/explosion |
| url | http://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/5/1/9 |
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