Trends in incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in China 1990−2019: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis
BackgroundThe incidence and mortality trends of esophageal cancer (EC) remain unknown in China. This study aimed to describe the trend in incidence and mortality of EC in China.MethodsWe extracted age-standardized rates and numbers of EC in China for 1990−2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Oncology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2022.887011/full |
| _version_ | 1828437705671835648 |
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| author | Fajun Li Haifeng Li Xin Su Hongsen Liang Li Wei Donglei Shi Junhang Zhang Zhaojun Wang |
| author_facet | Fajun Li Haifeng Li Xin Su Hongsen Liang Li Wei Donglei Shi Junhang Zhang Zhaojun Wang |
| author_sort | Fajun Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundThe incidence and mortality trends of esophageal cancer (EC) remain unknown in China. This study aimed to describe the trend in incidence and mortality of EC in China.MethodsWe extracted age-standardized rates and numbers of EC in China for 1990−2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were calculated to describe the trends, while the annual percentage of change and the average annual percent change (AAPC) were analyzed by the joinpoint regression analysis. The incidence and mortality data were analyzed via age-period-cohort model analysis.ResultsThe ASIR and ASMR decreased slightly before 1999, then increased from 1999 to 2004, and decreased again thereafter, with overall AAPC values of −2.5 (−2.8, −2.1) for females and -0.9 (−1.1, −0.8) for males regarding incidence, with overall AAPC values of −3.1 (−3.3, −2.9) for females and −1.2 (−1.3, −1.1) for males regarding mortality. As a whole, the relative risk (RR) of EC increased with age in both females and males regarding incidence and mortality, except for the 80–84-year-old age group in females and the 85–89-year-old age group in males regarding incidence, where they began to decrease. The RR of EC increased with age in females and males regarding mortality, except for the 85–89-year-old age group in males. The time period showed a trend of first rising and then decreasing, and the RR of time period effect was lower in 2015 than that in 1990 in females regarding both incidence and mortality, whereas males showed a significant upward trend in both incidence and mortality. The birth cohort effect showed an overall downward trend.ConclusionsThe overall incidence and mortality of EC in China shows an increased and then decreased trend from 1990 to 2019. The AAPC decreased in incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019. The RR of incidence and mortality of EC in China is greatly affected by age in both sexes, by time period in male, we should be paid more attention to. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T19:50:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3c78001d85234d16a5a78f22e1ee7a73 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2234-943X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T19:50:20Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
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| series | Frontiers in Oncology |
| spelling | doaj.art-3c78001d85234d16a5a78f22e1ee7a732022-12-22T01:35:48ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Oncology2234-943X2022-08-011210.3389/fonc.2022.887011887011Trends in incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in China 1990−2019: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysisFajun Li0Haifeng Li1Xin Su2Hongsen Liang3Li Wei4Donglei Shi5Junhang Zhang6Zhaojun Wang7Department of Critical Care Medicine, The First People’s Hospital of Kunshan, Kunshan, ChinaDepartment of Anesthesiology, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Respiratory, Hainan Hospital of PLA General Hospital, Sanya, ChinaDepartment of Thoracic Surgery, The Seventh Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, ChinaDepartment of Thoracic Surgery, The Seventh Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, ChinaDepartment of Thoracic Surgery, The Seventh Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, ChinaDepartment of Thoracic Surgery, The Seventh Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, ChinaDepartment of Thoracic Surgery, The Seventh Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, ChinaBackgroundThe incidence and mortality trends of esophageal cancer (EC) remain unknown in China. This study aimed to describe the trend in incidence and mortality of EC in China.MethodsWe extracted age-standardized rates and numbers of EC in China for 1990−2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were calculated to describe the trends, while the annual percentage of change and the average annual percent change (AAPC) were analyzed by the joinpoint regression analysis. The incidence and mortality data were analyzed via age-period-cohort model analysis.ResultsThe ASIR and ASMR decreased slightly before 1999, then increased from 1999 to 2004, and decreased again thereafter, with overall AAPC values of −2.5 (−2.8, −2.1) for females and -0.9 (−1.1, −0.8) for males regarding incidence, with overall AAPC values of −3.1 (−3.3, −2.9) for females and −1.2 (−1.3, −1.1) for males regarding mortality. As a whole, the relative risk (RR) of EC increased with age in both females and males regarding incidence and mortality, except for the 80–84-year-old age group in females and the 85–89-year-old age group in males regarding incidence, where they began to decrease. The RR of EC increased with age in females and males regarding mortality, except for the 85–89-year-old age group in males. The time period showed a trend of first rising and then decreasing, and the RR of time period effect was lower in 2015 than that in 1990 in females regarding both incidence and mortality, whereas males showed a significant upward trend in both incidence and mortality. The birth cohort effect showed an overall downward trend.ConclusionsThe overall incidence and mortality of EC in China shows an increased and then decreased trend from 1990 to 2019. The AAPC decreased in incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019. The RR of incidence and mortality of EC in China is greatly affected by age in both sexes, by time period in male, we should be paid more attention to.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2022.887011/fullesophageal cancerage-period-cohort modeljoinpoint analysisincidence trendmortality trend |
| spellingShingle | Fajun Li Haifeng Li Xin Su Hongsen Liang Li Wei Donglei Shi Junhang Zhang Zhaojun Wang Trends in incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in China 1990−2019: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis Frontiers in Oncology esophageal cancer age-period-cohort model joinpoint analysis incidence trend mortality trend |
| title | Trends in incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in China 1990−2019: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_full | Trends in incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in China 1990−2019: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_fullStr | Trends in incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in China 1990−2019: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trends in incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in China 1990−2019: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_short | Trends in incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in China 1990−2019: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_sort | trends in incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in china 1990 2019 a joinpoint and age period cohort analysis |
| topic | esophageal cancer age-period-cohort model joinpoint analysis incidence trend mortality trend |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2022.887011/full |
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