Evaluation of nuclear material accountability by the probability of detection for loss of Pu (LOPu) scenarios in pyroprocessing
A new methodology to analyze the nuclear material accountability for pyroprocessing system is developed. The Pu-to-244Cm ratio quantification is one of the methods for Pu accountancy in pyroprocessing. However, an uncertainty in the Pu-to-244Cm ratio due to the non-uniform composition in used fuel a...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2019-02-01
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| Series: | Nuclear Engineering and Technology |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1738573318302584 |
| _version_ | 1818505191911063552 |
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| author | Seung Min Woo Sunil S. Chirayath |
| author_facet | Seung Min Woo Sunil S. Chirayath |
| author_sort | Seung Min Woo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A new methodology to analyze the nuclear material accountability for pyroprocessing system is developed. The Pu-to-244Cm ratio quantification is one of the methods for Pu accountancy in pyroprocessing. However, an uncertainty in the Pu-to-244Cm ratio due to the non-uniform composition in used fuel assemblies can affect the accountancy of Pu. A random variable, LOPu, is developed to analyze the probability of detection for Pu diversion of hypothetical scenarios at a pyroprocessing facility considering the uncertainty in Pu-to-244Cm ratio estimation. The analysis is carried out by the hypothesis testing and the event tree method. The probability of detection for diversion of 8 kg Pu is found to be less than 95% if a large size granule consisting of small size particles gets sampled for measurements. To increase the probability of detection more than 95%, first, a new Material Balance Area (MBA) structure consisting of more number of Key Measurement Points (KMPs) is designed. This multiple KMP-measurement for the MBA shows the probability of detection for 8 kg Pu diversion is greater than 96%. Increasing the granule sample number from one to ten also shows the probability of detection is greater than 95% in the most ranges for granule and powder sizes. Keywords: Safeguards, Nuclear material accountancy, Pyroprocessing, Probability of detection, Loss of Pu, Nuclear material diversion, SERPENT |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T21:47:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3d0cf3bf22ab492fbab0d362d9fe0467 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1738-5733 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T21:47:21Z |
| publishDate | 2019-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nuclear Engineering and Technology |
| spelling | doaj.art-3d0cf3bf22ab492fbab0d362d9fe04672022-12-22T01:32:19ZengElsevierNuclear Engineering and Technology1738-57332019-02-01511198206Evaluation of nuclear material accountability by the probability of detection for loss of Pu (LOPu) scenarios in pyroprocessingSeung Min Woo0Sunil S. Chirayath1Department of Nuclear Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843-3133, USADepartment of Nuclear Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843-3133, USA; Center for Nuclear Security Science and Policy Initiatives, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843-3473, USA; Corresponding author. Department of Nuclear Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843-3133, USA.A new methodology to analyze the nuclear material accountability for pyroprocessing system is developed. The Pu-to-244Cm ratio quantification is one of the methods for Pu accountancy in pyroprocessing. However, an uncertainty in the Pu-to-244Cm ratio due to the non-uniform composition in used fuel assemblies can affect the accountancy of Pu. A random variable, LOPu, is developed to analyze the probability of detection for Pu diversion of hypothetical scenarios at a pyroprocessing facility considering the uncertainty in Pu-to-244Cm ratio estimation. The analysis is carried out by the hypothesis testing and the event tree method. The probability of detection for diversion of 8 kg Pu is found to be less than 95% if a large size granule consisting of small size particles gets sampled for measurements. To increase the probability of detection more than 95%, first, a new Material Balance Area (MBA) structure consisting of more number of Key Measurement Points (KMPs) is designed. This multiple KMP-measurement for the MBA shows the probability of detection for 8 kg Pu diversion is greater than 96%. Increasing the granule sample number from one to ten also shows the probability of detection is greater than 95% in the most ranges for granule and powder sizes. Keywords: Safeguards, Nuclear material accountancy, Pyroprocessing, Probability of detection, Loss of Pu, Nuclear material diversion, SERPENThttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1738573318302584 |
| spellingShingle | Seung Min Woo Sunil S. Chirayath Evaluation of nuclear material accountability by the probability of detection for loss of Pu (LOPu) scenarios in pyroprocessing Nuclear Engineering and Technology |
| title | Evaluation of nuclear material accountability by the probability of detection for loss of Pu (LOPu) scenarios in pyroprocessing |
| title_full | Evaluation of nuclear material accountability by the probability of detection for loss of Pu (LOPu) scenarios in pyroprocessing |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of nuclear material accountability by the probability of detection for loss of Pu (LOPu) scenarios in pyroprocessing |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of nuclear material accountability by the probability of detection for loss of Pu (LOPu) scenarios in pyroprocessing |
| title_short | Evaluation of nuclear material accountability by the probability of detection for loss of Pu (LOPu) scenarios in pyroprocessing |
| title_sort | evaluation of nuclear material accountability by the probability of detection for loss of pu lopu scenarios in pyroprocessing |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1738573318302584 |
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