Individual differences in the perception of probability.
In recent studies of humans estimating non-stationary probabilities, estimates appear to be unbiased on average, across the full range of probability values to be estimated. This finding is surprising given that experiments measuring probability estimation in other contexts have often identified con...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2021-04-01
|
| Series: | PLoS Computational Biology |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008871 |
| _version_ | 1818926859812864000 |
|---|---|
| author | Mel W Khaw Luminita Stevens Michael Woodford |
| author_facet | Mel W Khaw Luminita Stevens Michael Woodford |
| author_sort | Mel W Khaw |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In recent studies of humans estimating non-stationary probabilities, estimates appear to be unbiased on average, across the full range of probability values to be estimated. This finding is surprising given that experiments measuring probability estimation in other contexts have often identified conservatism: individuals tend to overestimate low probability events and underestimate high probability events. In other contexts, repulsive biases have also been documented, with individuals producing judgments that tend toward extreme values instead. Using extensive data from a probability estimation task that produces unbiased performance on average, we find substantial biases at the individual level; we document the coexistence of both conservative and repulsive biases in the same experimental context. Individual biases persist despite extensive experience with the task, and are also correlated with other behavioral differences, such as individual variation in response speed and adjustment rates. We conclude that the rich computational demands of our task give rise to a variety of behavioral patterns, and that the apparent unbiasedness of the pooled data is an artifact of the aggregation of heterogeneous biases. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T03:03:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3d47daae310e4c20b20ab299a8cdf72e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1553-734X 1553-7358 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T03:03:49Z |
| publishDate | 2021-04-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Computational Biology |
| spelling | doaj.art-3d47daae310e4c20b20ab299a8cdf72e2022-12-21T19:55:39ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Computational Biology1553-734X1553-73582021-04-01174e100887110.1371/journal.pcbi.1008871Individual differences in the perception of probability.Mel W KhawLuminita StevensMichael WoodfordIn recent studies of humans estimating non-stationary probabilities, estimates appear to be unbiased on average, across the full range of probability values to be estimated. This finding is surprising given that experiments measuring probability estimation in other contexts have often identified conservatism: individuals tend to overestimate low probability events and underestimate high probability events. In other contexts, repulsive biases have also been documented, with individuals producing judgments that tend toward extreme values instead. Using extensive data from a probability estimation task that produces unbiased performance on average, we find substantial biases at the individual level; we document the coexistence of both conservative and repulsive biases in the same experimental context. Individual biases persist despite extensive experience with the task, and are also correlated with other behavioral differences, such as individual variation in response speed and adjustment rates. We conclude that the rich computational demands of our task give rise to a variety of behavioral patterns, and that the apparent unbiasedness of the pooled data is an artifact of the aggregation of heterogeneous biases.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008871 |
| spellingShingle | Mel W Khaw Luminita Stevens Michael Woodford Individual differences in the perception of probability. PLoS Computational Biology |
| title | Individual differences in the perception of probability. |
| title_full | Individual differences in the perception of probability. |
| title_fullStr | Individual differences in the perception of probability. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Individual differences in the perception of probability. |
| title_short | Individual differences in the perception of probability. |
| title_sort | individual differences in the perception of probability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008871 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT melwkhaw individualdifferencesintheperceptionofprobability AT luminitastevens individualdifferencesintheperceptionofprobability AT michaelwoodford individualdifferencesintheperceptionofprobability |