Predicción del fracaso empresarial utilizando métricas de flujo de efectivo
Predicting Business Failure Using Cash Flow Metrics The purpose of this research is to examine the efficiency of cash flow metrics to forecast the probability of default of companies. Through a logistic regression model, the information of 58 companies with financial distress and 54 healthy compani...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF |
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| Online Access: | https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/729 |
| _version_ | 1797300489493151744 |
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| author | Viviana Lambreton Torres |
| author_facet | Viviana Lambreton Torres |
| author_sort | Viviana Lambreton Torres |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Predicting Business Failure Using Cash Flow Metrics
The purpose of this research is to examine the efficiency of cash flow metrics to forecast the probability of default of companies. Through a logistic regression model, the information of 58 companies with financial distress and 54 healthy companies had been analyzed for a period of 5 years. The results indicate that five of the ten metrics analyzed are efficient predictors of the probability of bankruptcy, with a correct prediction percentage of 87.73% of the cases. Similarly, it was determined that healthy companies and companies with financial difficulties have statistically different flow metrics from each other, so a greater use of cash flow metrics in financial analysis is recommended. The limitation of this study was to conform the sample of companies declared in default as of December 31, 2019. This research contributes to knowledge by demonstrating that cash flow metrics are a reliable tool in forecasting the probability serious financial problems in the context of Mexico. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T23:07:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3d5107827c9d4805b8ef96a8c26f7d24 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2448-6795 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T23:07:53Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF |
| spelling | doaj.art-3d5107827c9d4805b8ef96a8c26f7d242024-02-21T18:38:19ZengInstituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de FinanzasRevista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF2448-67952023-06-01183e729e72910.21919/remef.v18i3.729536Predicción del fracaso empresarial utilizando métricas de flujo de efectivoViviana Lambreton Torres0Universidad de MonterreyPredicting Business Failure Using Cash Flow Metrics The purpose of this research is to examine the efficiency of cash flow metrics to forecast the probability of default of companies. Through a logistic regression model, the information of 58 companies with financial distress and 54 healthy companies had been analyzed for a period of 5 years. The results indicate that five of the ten metrics analyzed are efficient predictors of the probability of bankruptcy, with a correct prediction percentage of 87.73% of the cases. Similarly, it was determined that healthy companies and companies with financial difficulties have statistically different flow metrics from each other, so a greater use of cash flow metrics in financial analysis is recommended. The limitation of this study was to conform the sample of companies declared in default as of December 31, 2019. This research contributes to knowledge by demonstrating that cash flow metrics are a reliable tool in forecasting the probability serious financial problems in the context of Mexico.https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/729probabilidad de quiebra, regresión logística, métricas de flujo, dificultades financieras |
| spellingShingle | Viviana Lambreton Torres Predicción del fracaso empresarial utilizando métricas de flujo de efectivo Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF probabilidad de quiebra, regresión logística, métricas de flujo, dificultades financieras |
| title | Predicción del fracaso empresarial utilizando métricas de flujo de efectivo |
| title_full | Predicción del fracaso empresarial utilizando métricas de flujo de efectivo |
| title_fullStr | Predicción del fracaso empresarial utilizando métricas de flujo de efectivo |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicción del fracaso empresarial utilizando métricas de flujo de efectivo |
| title_short | Predicción del fracaso empresarial utilizando métricas de flujo de efectivo |
| title_sort | prediccion del fracaso empresarial utilizando metricas de flujo de efectivo |
| topic | probabilidad de quiebra, regresión logística, métricas de flujo, dificultades financieras |
| url | https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/729 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT vivianalambretontorres predicciondelfracasoempresarialutilizandometricasdeflujodeefectivo |