The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling study.
<h4>Background</h4>Sustained elevated concentration of GHGs is predicted to increase global mortality. With the Australian health sector responsible for 7% of the nation's GHG emissions, the benefits and costs of various decarbonisation trajectories are currently being investigated....
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2022-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271550 |
| _version_ | 1811282996958855168 |
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| author | Siddhanth Sharma R Daniel Bressler Anand Bhopal Ole F Norheim |
| author_facet | Siddhanth Sharma R Daniel Bressler Anand Bhopal Ole F Norheim |
| author_sort | Siddhanth Sharma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Background</h4>Sustained elevated concentration of GHGs is predicted to increase global mortality. With the Australian health sector responsible for 7% of the nation's GHG emissions, the benefits and costs of various decarbonisation trajectories are currently being investigated. To assist with this effort, we model the impact earlier decarbonisation has on temperature-related mortality.<h4>Design</h4>We used DICE-EMR, an Integrated Assessment Model with an endogenous mortality response, to simulate Australian GHG trajectories and estimate the temperature-related mortality impact of early decarbonisation. We modelled a linear decline of the Australian health sector's and economy's GHG annual emissions to net-zero targets of 2040 and 2050.<h4>Main outcome measure</h4>Deaths averted and monetary-equivalent welfare gain.<h4>Results</h4>Decarbonisation of the Australian health sector by 2050 and 2040 is projected to avert an estimated 69,000 and 77,000 global temperature-related deaths respectively in a Baseline global emissions scenario. Australian economy decarbonisation by 2050 and 2040 is projected to avert an estimated 988,000 and 1,101,000 global deaths respectively. Assuming a low discount rate and high global emissions trajectory, we estimate a monetary equivalent welfare gain of $151 billion if the Australian health sector decarbonises by 2040, only accounting for the benefits in reducing temperature-related mortality.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Earlier decarbonisation has a significant impact on temperature-related mortality. Many uncertainties exist and health impacts other than temperature-related mortality are not captured by this analysis. Nevertheless, such models can help communicate the health risk of climate change and improve climate policy decision making. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T02:02:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3d565f8005684efb80109a59ae662223 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T02:02:34Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-3d565f8005684efb80109a59ae6622232022-12-22T03:07:34ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032022-01-01178e027155010.1371/journal.pone.0271550The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling study.Siddhanth SharmaR Daniel BresslerAnand BhopalOle F Norheim<h4>Background</h4>Sustained elevated concentration of GHGs is predicted to increase global mortality. With the Australian health sector responsible for 7% of the nation's GHG emissions, the benefits and costs of various decarbonisation trajectories are currently being investigated. To assist with this effort, we model the impact earlier decarbonisation has on temperature-related mortality.<h4>Design</h4>We used DICE-EMR, an Integrated Assessment Model with an endogenous mortality response, to simulate Australian GHG trajectories and estimate the temperature-related mortality impact of early decarbonisation. We modelled a linear decline of the Australian health sector's and economy's GHG annual emissions to net-zero targets of 2040 and 2050.<h4>Main outcome measure</h4>Deaths averted and monetary-equivalent welfare gain.<h4>Results</h4>Decarbonisation of the Australian health sector by 2050 and 2040 is projected to avert an estimated 69,000 and 77,000 global temperature-related deaths respectively in a Baseline global emissions scenario. Australian economy decarbonisation by 2050 and 2040 is projected to avert an estimated 988,000 and 1,101,000 global deaths respectively. Assuming a low discount rate and high global emissions trajectory, we estimate a monetary equivalent welfare gain of $151 billion if the Australian health sector decarbonises by 2040, only accounting for the benefits in reducing temperature-related mortality.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Earlier decarbonisation has a significant impact on temperature-related mortality. Many uncertainties exist and health impacts other than temperature-related mortality are not captured by this analysis. Nevertheless, such models can help communicate the health risk of climate change and improve climate policy decision making.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271550 |
| spellingShingle | Siddhanth Sharma R Daniel Bressler Anand Bhopal Ole F Norheim The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling study. PLoS ONE |
| title | The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling study. |
| title_full | The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling study. |
| title_fullStr | The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling study. |
| title_full_unstemmed | The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling study. |
| title_short | The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling study. |
| title_sort | global temperature related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the australian health sector and economy a modelling study |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271550 |
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