Trends in incidence and mortality for ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its forecasted levels in 30 years
Abstract Background The specific long-term trend in ovarian cancer (OC) rates in China has been rarely investigated. We aimed to estimate the temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 in OC and predict the next 30-year levels. Data on the incidence, mortality rates, and the...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Journal of Ovarian Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13048-023-01233-y |
| _version_ | 1797778753879801856 |
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| author | Jianyang Feng Lijiang Xu Yangping Chen Rongjin Lin Haoxian Li Hong He |
| author_facet | Jianyang Feng Lijiang Xu Yangping Chen Rongjin Lin Haoxian Li Hong He |
| author_sort | Jianyang Feng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background The specific long-term trend in ovarian cancer (OC) rates in China has been rarely investigated. We aimed to estimate the temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 in OC and predict the next 30-year levels. Data on the incidence, mortality rates, and the number of new cases and deaths cases due to OC in the China cohort from 1990 to 2019 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates were evaluated by joinpoint regression models. The incidence and mortality rates and the estimated number of cases from 2020 to 2049 were predicted using the Bayesian age–period–cohort model. Results Consecutive increasing trends in age-standardized incidence (average annual percent change [AAPC] = 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.90–2.16; p < 0.001) and mortality (AAPC = 1.58; 95% CI, 1.38−1.78; p < 0.001) rates in OC were observed from 1990–2019 in China. Theoretically, both the estimated age-standardized (per 100,000 women) incidence (from 4.77 in 2019 to 8.95 in 2049) and mortality (from 2.88 in 2019 to 4.03 in 2049) rates will continue to increase substantially in the coming 30 years. And the estimated number of new cases of, and deaths from OC will increase by more than 3 times between 2019 and 2049. Conclusions The disease burden of OC in incidence and mortality has been increasing in China over the past 30 years and will be predicted to increase continuously in the coming three decades. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T23:21:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3d9199670e3f4feab90da2d77b625fc3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1757-2215 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T23:21:05Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Ovarian Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-3d9199670e3f4feab90da2d77b625fc32023-07-16T11:24:48ZengBMCJournal of Ovarian Research1757-22152023-07-011611710.1186/s13048-023-01233-yTrends in incidence and mortality for ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its forecasted levels in 30 yearsJianyang Feng0Lijiang Xu1Yangping Chen2Rongjin Lin3Haoxian Li4Hong He5Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Major Obstetric Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The First People’s Hospital of FoshanDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The First People’s Hospital of FoshanDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Major Obstetric Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Major Obstetric Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Major Obstetric Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityAbstract Background The specific long-term trend in ovarian cancer (OC) rates in China has been rarely investigated. We aimed to estimate the temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 in OC and predict the next 30-year levels. Data on the incidence, mortality rates, and the number of new cases and deaths cases due to OC in the China cohort from 1990 to 2019 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates were evaluated by joinpoint regression models. The incidence and mortality rates and the estimated number of cases from 2020 to 2049 were predicted using the Bayesian age–period–cohort model. Results Consecutive increasing trends in age-standardized incidence (average annual percent change [AAPC] = 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.90–2.16; p < 0.001) and mortality (AAPC = 1.58; 95% CI, 1.38−1.78; p < 0.001) rates in OC were observed from 1990–2019 in China. Theoretically, both the estimated age-standardized (per 100,000 women) incidence (from 4.77 in 2019 to 8.95 in 2049) and mortality (from 2.88 in 2019 to 4.03 in 2049) rates will continue to increase substantially in the coming 30 years. And the estimated number of new cases of, and deaths from OC will increase by more than 3 times between 2019 and 2049. Conclusions The disease burden of OC in incidence and mortality has been increasing in China over the past 30 years and will be predicted to increase continuously in the coming three decades.https://doi.org/10.1186/s13048-023-01233-yOvarian cancerIncidenceMortalityDisease burdenProjectionChina |
| spellingShingle | Jianyang Feng Lijiang Xu Yangping Chen Rongjin Lin Haoxian Li Hong He Trends in incidence and mortality for ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its forecasted levels in 30 years Journal of Ovarian Research Ovarian cancer Incidence Mortality Disease burden Projection China |
| title | Trends in incidence and mortality for ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its forecasted levels in 30 years |
| title_full | Trends in incidence and mortality for ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its forecasted levels in 30 years |
| title_fullStr | Trends in incidence and mortality for ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its forecasted levels in 30 years |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trends in incidence and mortality for ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its forecasted levels in 30 years |
| title_short | Trends in incidence and mortality for ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its forecasted levels in 30 years |
| title_sort | trends in incidence and mortality for ovarian cancer in china from 1990 to 2019 and its forecasted levels in 30 years |
| topic | Ovarian cancer Incidence Mortality Disease burden Projection China |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13048-023-01233-y |
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