On the external forcing of global eruptive activity in the past 300 years
The decryption of the temporal sequence of volcanic eruptions is a key step in better anticipating future events. Volcanic activity results from a complex interaction between internal and external processes, with time scales spanning multiple orders of magnitude. We review periodicities that have be...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Earth Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2023.1254855/full |
| _version_ | 1797652649293643776 |
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| author | J-L. Le Mouël D. Gibert V. Courtillot S. Dumont S. Dumont J. de Bremond d'Ars S. Petrosino P. Zuddas F. Lopes J-B. Boulé M. C. Neves S. Custódio G. Silveira G. Silveira V. Kossobokov L. Coen M. Gèze |
| author_facet | J-L. Le Mouël D. Gibert V. Courtillot S. Dumont S. Dumont J. de Bremond d'Ars S. Petrosino P. Zuddas F. Lopes J-B. Boulé M. C. Neves S. Custódio G. Silveira G. Silveira V. Kossobokov L. Coen M. Gèze |
| author_sort | J-L. Le Mouël |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The decryption of the temporal sequence of volcanic eruptions is a key step in better anticipating future events. Volcanic activity results from a complex interaction between internal and external processes, with time scales spanning multiple orders of magnitude. We review periodicities that have been detected or correlated with volcanic eruptions/phenomena and interpreted as resulting from external forces. Taking a global perspective and longer time scales than a few years, we approach this interaction by analyzing three time-series using singular spectral analysis: the global number of volcanic eruptions (NVE) between 1700 and 2022, the number of sunspots (ISSN), a proxy for solar activity, and polar motion (PM) and length of day (lod), two proxies for gravitational force. Several pseudo-periodicities are common to NVE and ISSN, in addition to the 11-year Schwabe cycle that has been reported in previous work, but NVE shares even more periodicities with PM. These quasi-periodic components range from −5 to −130 years. We interpret our analytical results in light of the Laplace’s paradigm and propose that, similarly to the movement of Earth’s rotation axis, global eruptive activity is modulated by commensurable orbital moments of the Jovian planets together with Pluto, whose influence is also detected in solar activity. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T16:33:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3dabdebf8ab54d2590b9cbf0ed599bf3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-6463 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T16:33:02Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Earth Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-3dabdebf8ab54d2590b9cbf0ed599bf32023-10-23T21:28:11ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Earth Science2296-64632023-10-011110.3389/feart.2023.12548551254855On the external forcing of global eruptive activity in the past 300 yearsJ-L. Le Mouël0D. Gibert1V. Courtillot2S. Dumont3S. Dumont4J. de Bremond d'Ars5S. Petrosino6P. Zuddas7F. Lopes8J-B. Boulé9M. C. Neves10S. Custódio11G. Silveira12G. Silveira13V. Kossobokov14L. Coen15M. Gèze16Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, CNRS UMR 7154, Université Paris Cité, Paris, FranceLGL-TPE, Univ Lyon, Univ Lyon 1, ENSL, CNRS, UMR 5276, Villeurbanne, FranceInstitut de Physique du Globe de Paris, CNRS UMR 7154, Université Paris Cité, Paris, FranceInstituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, PortugalInstituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Universidade da Beira Interior, Covilhã, PortugalUniv Rennes, CNRS, Géosciences Rennes, UMR 6118, Rennes, FranceIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Napoli—Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, ItalySorbonne Université, CNRS, METIS, Paris, FranceInstitut de Physique du Globe de Paris, CNRS UMR 7154, Université Paris Cité, Paris, FranceCNRS UMR7196, INSERM U1154, Paris, FranceFCT, Campus de Gambelas, Universidade do Algarve, Faro, PortugalInstituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, PortugalInstituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal0Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa (ISEL), Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal1Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IEPT RAS), Moscow, Russia2Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, CNRS Laboratoire PHYMA, UMR7221, Paris, France3Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, CEMIM, Sorbonne Université, Paris, FranceThe decryption of the temporal sequence of volcanic eruptions is a key step in better anticipating future events. Volcanic activity results from a complex interaction between internal and external processes, with time scales spanning multiple orders of magnitude. We review periodicities that have been detected or correlated with volcanic eruptions/phenomena and interpreted as resulting from external forces. Taking a global perspective and longer time scales than a few years, we approach this interaction by analyzing three time-series using singular spectral analysis: the global number of volcanic eruptions (NVE) between 1700 and 2022, the number of sunspots (ISSN), a proxy for solar activity, and polar motion (PM) and length of day (lod), two proxies for gravitational force. Several pseudo-periodicities are common to NVE and ISSN, in addition to the 11-year Schwabe cycle that has been reported in previous work, but NVE shares even more periodicities with PM. These quasi-periodic components range from −5 to −130 years. We interpret our analytical results in light of the Laplace’s paradigm and propose that, similarly to the movement of Earth’s rotation axis, global eruptive activity is modulated by commensurable orbital moments of the Jovian planets together with Pluto, whose influence is also detected in solar activity.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2023.1254855/fullworldwide volcanic eruptionspolar motionsunspot numberplanetary orbital momentsLaplace theoryexternal forcing |
| spellingShingle | J-L. Le Mouël D. Gibert V. Courtillot S. Dumont S. Dumont J. de Bremond d'Ars S. Petrosino P. Zuddas F. Lopes J-B. Boulé M. C. Neves S. Custódio G. Silveira G. Silveira V. Kossobokov L. Coen M. Gèze On the external forcing of global eruptive activity in the past 300 years Frontiers in Earth Science worldwide volcanic eruptions polar motion sunspot number planetary orbital moments Laplace theory external forcing |
| title | On the external forcing of global eruptive activity in the past 300 years |
| title_full | On the external forcing of global eruptive activity in the past 300 years |
| title_fullStr | On the external forcing of global eruptive activity in the past 300 years |
| title_full_unstemmed | On the external forcing of global eruptive activity in the past 300 years |
| title_short | On the external forcing of global eruptive activity in the past 300 years |
| title_sort | on the external forcing of global eruptive activity in the past 300 years |
| topic | worldwide volcanic eruptions polar motion sunspot number planetary orbital moments Laplace theory external forcing |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2023.1254855/full |
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