Depopulation, super aging, and extreme heat events in South Korea
South Korea’s population is declining and its composition changing, associated with lowest-low fertility rates and rapid aging (super aging). When estimating changes in future exposure to extreme heat events (EHE), events that are predicted to be intensified due to climate change, it is important to...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Climate Risk Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096322000638 |
| _version_ | 1811296796449701888 |
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| author | Oh Seok Kim Jihyun Han Kee Whan Kim Stephen A. Matthews Changsub Shim |
| author_facet | Oh Seok Kim Jihyun Han Kee Whan Kim Stephen A. Matthews Changsub Shim |
| author_sort | Oh Seok Kim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | South Korea’s population is declining and its composition changing, associated with lowest-low fertility rates and rapid aging (super aging). When estimating changes in future exposure to extreme heat events (EHE), events that are predicted to be intensified due to climate change, it is important to incorporate demographic dynamics. We analyze business-as-usual (BAU) population and climate scenarios—where BAU refers to no significant change in current processes and trends in either domain—from 2010 to 2060 for South Korea. Data for both BAU scenarios are spatially linked and used to measure and identify national and sub-national and age-group specific EHE exposure. The results reveal an increasing exposure to EHE over time at the national level, but this varies widely within the country, measured at the municipal level. The most intensive exposure levels will be in the decade ending in 2040 driven by high estimated severe EHE. Sub-nationally, Seoul will be the most vulnerable municipality associated with super aging, while severe EHE not demographic factors will be relevant in Daegu, the second-most vulnerable metropolitan area. By 2060, national estimates suggest the older population will be up to four times more exposed to EHE than today. While the population of South Korea will decline, the rapid aging of the population ensures that specific regions of the country will become exceedingly vulnerable to EHE. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T05:53:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3decaca666514a868bdf9591586fcd27 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2212-0963 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T05:53:54Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Risk Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-3decaca666514a868bdf9591586fcd272022-12-22T02:59:40ZengElsevierClimate Risk Management2212-09632022-01-0138100456Depopulation, super aging, and extreme heat events in South KoreaOh Seok Kim0Jihyun Han1Kee Whan Kim2Stephen A. Matthews3Changsub Shim4Department of Geography, Graduate School of Korea University, Seoul 02841, Republic of Korea; Department of Geography Education, College of Education, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Republic of Korea; Institute of Future Land, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Republic of KoreaDivision of Climate and Environmental Research, Seoul Institute of Technology, Seoul 03909, Republic of Korea; Corresponding author at: 7th floor, 37 Maebongsan-ro, Mapo-gu, Seoul 03909, Republic of Korea.Department of National Statistics, Korea University, Sejong 30019, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Sociology and Criminology, Penn State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA; Department of Anthropology, Penn State University, University Park, PA 16802, USADivision of Atmospheric Environment, Korea Environment Institute, Sejong 30147, Republic of KoreaSouth Korea’s population is declining and its composition changing, associated with lowest-low fertility rates and rapid aging (super aging). When estimating changes in future exposure to extreme heat events (EHE), events that are predicted to be intensified due to climate change, it is important to incorporate demographic dynamics. We analyze business-as-usual (BAU) population and climate scenarios—where BAU refers to no significant change in current processes and trends in either domain—from 2010 to 2060 for South Korea. Data for both BAU scenarios are spatially linked and used to measure and identify national and sub-national and age-group specific EHE exposure. The results reveal an increasing exposure to EHE over time at the national level, but this varies widely within the country, measured at the municipal level. The most intensive exposure levels will be in the decade ending in 2040 driven by high estimated severe EHE. Sub-nationally, Seoul will be the most vulnerable municipality associated with super aging, while severe EHE not demographic factors will be relevant in Daegu, the second-most vulnerable metropolitan area. By 2060, national estimates suggest the older population will be up to four times more exposed to EHE than today. While the population of South Korea will decline, the rapid aging of the population ensures that specific regions of the country will become exceedingly vulnerable to EHE.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096322000638Extreme heat eventsClimate changePopulation dynamicsPopulation agingBusiness-as-usual population and climate scenarios |
| spellingShingle | Oh Seok Kim Jihyun Han Kee Whan Kim Stephen A. Matthews Changsub Shim Depopulation, super aging, and extreme heat events in South Korea Climate Risk Management Extreme heat events Climate change Population dynamics Population aging Business-as-usual population and climate scenarios |
| title | Depopulation, super aging, and extreme heat events in South Korea |
| title_full | Depopulation, super aging, and extreme heat events in South Korea |
| title_fullStr | Depopulation, super aging, and extreme heat events in South Korea |
| title_full_unstemmed | Depopulation, super aging, and extreme heat events in South Korea |
| title_short | Depopulation, super aging, and extreme heat events in South Korea |
| title_sort | depopulation super aging and extreme heat events in south korea |
| topic | Extreme heat events Climate change Population dynamics Population aging Business-as-usual population and climate scenarios |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096322000638 |
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