A Near-Real-Time Method for Estimating Volcanic Ash Emissions Using Satellite Retrievals
We present a Bayesian inversion method for estimating volcanic ash emissions using satellite retrievals of ash column load and an atmospheric dispersion model. An a priori description of the emissions is used based on observations of the rise height of the volcanic plume and a stochastic model of th...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/12/1573 |
| _version_ | 1797506649320062976 |
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| author | Rachel E. Pelley David J. Thomson Helen N. Webster Michael C. Cooke Alistair J. Manning Claire S. Witham Matthew C. Hort |
| author_facet | Rachel E. Pelley David J. Thomson Helen N. Webster Michael C. Cooke Alistair J. Manning Claire S. Witham Matthew C. Hort |
| author_sort | Rachel E. Pelley |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We present a Bayesian inversion method for estimating volcanic ash emissions using satellite retrievals of ash column load and an atmospheric dispersion model. An a priori description of the emissions is used based on observations of the rise height of the volcanic plume and a stochastic model of the possible emissions. Satellite data are processed to give column loads where ash is detected and to give information on where we have high confidence that there is negligible ash. An atmospheric dispersion model is used to relate emissions and column loads. Gaussian distributions are assumed for the a priori emissions and for the errors in the satellite retrievals. The optimal emissions estimate is obtained by finding the peak of the a posteriori probability density under the constraint that the emissions are non-negative. We apply this inversion method within a framework designed for use during an eruption with the emission estimates (for any given emission time) being revised over time as more information becomes available. We demonstrate the approach for the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grímsvötn eruptions. We apply the approach in two ways, using only the ash retrievals and using both the ash and clear sky retrievals. For Eyjafjallajökull we have compared with an independent dataset not used in the inversion and have found that the inversion-derived emissions lead to improved predictions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T04:35:33Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3dee3478807341638f576b43e34ddab2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T04:35:33Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-3dee3478807341638f576b43e34ddab22023-11-23T03:45:40ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332021-11-011212157310.3390/atmos12121573A Near-Real-Time Method for Estimating Volcanic Ash Emissions Using Satellite RetrievalsRachel E. Pelley0David J. Thomson1Helen N. Webster2Michael C. Cooke3Alistair J. Manning4Claire S. Witham5Matthew C. Hort6Met Office, Exeter EX1 3PB, UKMet Office, Exeter EX1 3PB, UKMet Office, Exeter EX1 3PB, UKMet Office, Exeter EX1 3PB, UKMet Office, Exeter EX1 3PB, UKMet Office, Exeter EX1 3PB, UKMet Office, Exeter EX1 3PB, UKWe present a Bayesian inversion method for estimating volcanic ash emissions using satellite retrievals of ash column load and an atmospheric dispersion model. An a priori description of the emissions is used based on observations of the rise height of the volcanic plume and a stochastic model of the possible emissions. Satellite data are processed to give column loads where ash is detected and to give information on where we have high confidence that there is negligible ash. An atmospheric dispersion model is used to relate emissions and column loads. Gaussian distributions are assumed for the a priori emissions and for the errors in the satellite retrievals. The optimal emissions estimate is obtained by finding the peak of the a posteriori probability density under the constraint that the emissions are non-negative. We apply this inversion method within a framework designed for use during an eruption with the emission estimates (for any given emission time) being revised over time as more information becomes available. We demonstrate the approach for the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grímsvötn eruptions. We apply the approach in two ways, using only the ash retrievals and using both the ash and clear sky retrievals. For Eyjafjallajökull we have compared with an independent dataset not used in the inversion and have found that the inversion-derived emissions lead to improved predictions.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/12/1573volcanic ash emissionssource inversionatmospheric dispersionsatellite ash retrievals |
| spellingShingle | Rachel E. Pelley David J. Thomson Helen N. Webster Michael C. Cooke Alistair J. Manning Claire S. Witham Matthew C. Hort A Near-Real-Time Method for Estimating Volcanic Ash Emissions Using Satellite Retrievals Atmosphere volcanic ash emissions source inversion atmospheric dispersion satellite ash retrievals |
| title | A Near-Real-Time Method for Estimating Volcanic Ash Emissions Using Satellite Retrievals |
| title_full | A Near-Real-Time Method for Estimating Volcanic Ash Emissions Using Satellite Retrievals |
| title_fullStr | A Near-Real-Time Method for Estimating Volcanic Ash Emissions Using Satellite Retrievals |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Near-Real-Time Method for Estimating Volcanic Ash Emissions Using Satellite Retrievals |
| title_short | A Near-Real-Time Method for Estimating Volcanic Ash Emissions Using Satellite Retrievals |
| title_sort | near real time method for estimating volcanic ash emissions using satellite retrievals |
| topic | volcanic ash emissions source inversion atmospheric dispersion satellite ash retrievals |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/12/1573 |
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