MODEL PERAMALAN KONSUMSI BAHAN BAKAR JENIS PREMIUM DI INDONESIA DENGAN REGRESI LINIER BERGANDA
Energy consumption forecasting, especially premium, is an integral part of energy management. Premium is a type of energy that receives government subsidy. Unfortunately, premium forecastings being performed have considerable high error resulting difficulties on reaching planned subsidy target and e...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Muhammadiyah University Press
2014-12-01
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| Series: | Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Industri |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journals.ums.ac.id/index.php/jiti/article/view/635 |
| _version_ | 1819150195090259968 |
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| author | Farizal Farizal Amar Rachman Hadi Al Rasyid |
| author_facet | Farizal Farizal Amar Rachman Hadi Al Rasyid |
| author_sort | Farizal Farizal |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Energy consumption forecasting, especially premium, is an integral part of energy management. Premium is a type of energy that receives government subsidy. Unfortunately, premium forecastings being performed have considerable high error resulting difficulties on reaching planned subsidy target and exploding the amount. In this study forecasting was conducted using multilinear regression (MLR) method with ten candidate predictor variables. The result shows that only four variables which are inflation, selling price disparity between pertamanx and premium, economic growth rate, and the number of car, dictate premium consumption. Analsys on the MLR model indicates that the model has a considerable low error with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 5.18%. The model has been used to predict 2013 primium consumption with 1.05% of error. The model predicted that 2013 premium consumption was 29.56 million kiloliter, while the reality was 29.26 million kiloliter. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T14:13:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3df41ff174024b4d989d261bce4dc95c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1412-6869 2460-4038 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T14:13:38Z |
| publishDate | 2014-12-01 |
| publisher | Muhammadiyah University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Industri |
| spelling | doaj.art-3df41ff174024b4d989d261bce4dc95c2022-12-21T18:23:09ZengMuhammadiyah University PressJurnal Ilmiah Teknik Industri1412-68692460-40382014-12-0113216617610.23917/jiti.v13i2.635506MODEL PERAMALAN KONSUMSI BAHAN BAKAR JENIS PREMIUM DI INDONESIA DENGAN REGRESI LINIER BERGANDAFarizal Farizal0Amar Rachman1Hadi Al Rasyid2Departement Teknik Industri, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Indonesia, Kampus Baru UI Depok 16424Departement Teknik Industri, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Indonesia, Kampus Baru UI Depok 16424Departement Teknik Industri, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Indonesia, Kampus Baru UI Depok 16424Energy consumption forecasting, especially premium, is an integral part of energy management. Premium is a type of energy that receives government subsidy. Unfortunately, premium forecastings being performed have considerable high error resulting difficulties on reaching planned subsidy target and exploding the amount. In this study forecasting was conducted using multilinear regression (MLR) method with ten candidate predictor variables. The result shows that only four variables which are inflation, selling price disparity between pertamanx and premium, economic growth rate, and the number of car, dictate premium consumption. Analsys on the MLR model indicates that the model has a considerable low error with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 5.18%. The model has been used to predict 2013 primium consumption with 1.05% of error. The model predicted that 2013 premium consumption was 29.56 million kiloliter, while the reality was 29.26 million kiloliter.http://journals.ums.ac.id/index.php/jiti/article/view/635forecasting modelenergy consumptionsubsidized fuelmultiple linear regression |
| spellingShingle | Farizal Farizal Amar Rachman Hadi Al Rasyid MODEL PERAMALAN KONSUMSI BAHAN BAKAR JENIS PREMIUM DI INDONESIA DENGAN REGRESI LINIER BERGANDA Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Industri forecasting model energy consumption subsidized fuel multiple linear regression |
| title | MODEL PERAMALAN KONSUMSI BAHAN BAKAR JENIS PREMIUM DI INDONESIA DENGAN REGRESI LINIER BERGANDA |
| title_full | MODEL PERAMALAN KONSUMSI BAHAN BAKAR JENIS PREMIUM DI INDONESIA DENGAN REGRESI LINIER BERGANDA |
| title_fullStr | MODEL PERAMALAN KONSUMSI BAHAN BAKAR JENIS PREMIUM DI INDONESIA DENGAN REGRESI LINIER BERGANDA |
| title_full_unstemmed | MODEL PERAMALAN KONSUMSI BAHAN BAKAR JENIS PREMIUM DI INDONESIA DENGAN REGRESI LINIER BERGANDA |
| title_short | MODEL PERAMALAN KONSUMSI BAHAN BAKAR JENIS PREMIUM DI INDONESIA DENGAN REGRESI LINIER BERGANDA |
| title_sort | model peramalan konsumsi bahan bakar jenis premium di indonesia dengan regresi linier berganda |
| topic | forecasting model energy consumption subsidized fuel multiple linear regression |
| url | http://journals.ums.ac.id/index.php/jiti/article/view/635 |
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