Potential Distribution of Invasive Boxwood Blight Pathogen (<i>Calonectria</i><i>pseudonaviculata</i>) as Predicted by Process-Based and Correlative Models
Boxwood blight caused by <i>Cps</i> is an emerging disease that has had devastating impacts on <i>Buxus</i> spp. in the horticultural sector, landscapes, and native ecosystems. In this study, we produced a process-based climatic suitability model in the CLIMEX program and com...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2022-06-01
|
| Series: | Biology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/11/6/849 |
| _version_ | 1797489857196457984 |
|---|---|
| author | Brittany S. Barker Leonard Coop Chuanxue Hong |
| author_facet | Brittany S. Barker Leonard Coop Chuanxue Hong |
| author_sort | Brittany S. Barker |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Boxwood blight caused by <i>Cps</i> is an emerging disease that has had devastating impacts on <i>Buxus</i> spp. in the horticultural sector, landscapes, and native ecosystems. In this study, we produced a process-based climatic suitability model in the CLIMEX program and combined outputs of four different correlative modeling algorithms to generate an ensemble correlative model. All models were fit and validated using a presence record dataset comprised of <i>Cps</i> detections across its entire known invaded range. Evaluations of model performance provided validation of good model fit for all models. A consensus map of CLIMEX and ensemble correlative model predictions indicated that not-yet-invaded areas in eastern and southern Europe and in the southeastern, midwestern, and Pacific coast regions of North America are climatically suitable for <i>Cps</i> establishment. Most regions of the world where <i>Buxus</i> and its congeners are native are also at risk of establishment. These findings provide the first insights into <i>Cps</i> global invasion threat, suggesting that this invasive pathogen has the potential to significantly expand its range. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:22:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3e01776dcbf24c568db4f32b63e6736d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2079-7737 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:22:37Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Biology |
| spelling | doaj.art-3e01776dcbf24c568db4f32b63e6736d2023-11-23T15:39:18ZengMDPI AGBiology2079-77372022-06-0111684910.3390/biology11060849Potential Distribution of Invasive Boxwood Blight Pathogen (<i>Calonectria</i><i>pseudonaviculata</i>) as Predicted by Process-Based and Correlative ModelsBrittany S. Barker0Leonard Coop1Chuanxue Hong2Oregon Integrated Pest Management Center, Oregon State University, 4575 Research Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, USAOregon Integrated Pest Management Center, Oregon State University, 4575 Research Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, USAHampton Roads Agricultural Research and Extension Center, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1444 Diamond Springs Road, Virginia Beach, VA 23455, USABoxwood blight caused by <i>Cps</i> is an emerging disease that has had devastating impacts on <i>Buxus</i> spp. in the horticultural sector, landscapes, and native ecosystems. In this study, we produced a process-based climatic suitability model in the CLIMEX program and combined outputs of four different correlative modeling algorithms to generate an ensemble correlative model. All models were fit and validated using a presence record dataset comprised of <i>Cps</i> detections across its entire known invaded range. Evaluations of model performance provided validation of good model fit for all models. A consensus map of CLIMEX and ensemble correlative model predictions indicated that not-yet-invaded areas in eastern and southern Europe and in the southeastern, midwestern, and Pacific coast regions of North America are climatically suitable for <i>Cps</i> establishment. Most regions of the world where <i>Buxus</i> and its congeners are native are also at risk of establishment. These findings provide the first insights into <i>Cps</i> global invasion threat, suggesting that this invasive pathogen has the potential to significantly expand its range.https://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/11/6/849<i>Buxus</i>invasive plant pathogenbiological invasionclimatic suitabilityCLIMEXensemble model |
| spellingShingle | Brittany S. Barker Leonard Coop Chuanxue Hong Potential Distribution of Invasive Boxwood Blight Pathogen (<i>Calonectria</i><i>pseudonaviculata</i>) as Predicted by Process-Based and Correlative Models Biology <i>Buxus</i> invasive plant pathogen biological invasion climatic suitability CLIMEX ensemble model |
| title | Potential Distribution of Invasive Boxwood Blight Pathogen (<i>Calonectria</i><i>pseudonaviculata</i>) as Predicted by Process-Based and Correlative Models |
| title_full | Potential Distribution of Invasive Boxwood Blight Pathogen (<i>Calonectria</i><i>pseudonaviculata</i>) as Predicted by Process-Based and Correlative Models |
| title_fullStr | Potential Distribution of Invasive Boxwood Blight Pathogen (<i>Calonectria</i><i>pseudonaviculata</i>) as Predicted by Process-Based and Correlative Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential Distribution of Invasive Boxwood Blight Pathogen (<i>Calonectria</i><i>pseudonaviculata</i>) as Predicted by Process-Based and Correlative Models |
| title_short | Potential Distribution of Invasive Boxwood Blight Pathogen (<i>Calonectria</i><i>pseudonaviculata</i>) as Predicted by Process-Based and Correlative Models |
| title_sort | potential distribution of invasive boxwood blight pathogen i calonectria i i pseudonaviculata i as predicted by process based and correlative models |
| topic | <i>Buxus</i> invasive plant pathogen biological invasion climatic suitability CLIMEX ensemble model |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/11/6/849 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT brittanysbarker potentialdistributionofinvasiveboxwoodblightpathogenicalonectriaiipseudonaviculataiaspredictedbyprocessbasedandcorrelativemodels AT leonardcoop potentialdistributionofinvasiveboxwoodblightpathogenicalonectriaiipseudonaviculataiaspredictedbyprocessbasedandcorrelativemodels AT chuanxuehong potentialdistributionofinvasiveboxwoodblightpathogenicalonectriaiipseudonaviculataiaspredictedbyprocessbasedandcorrelativemodels |