A Model for the Lifespan Loss Due to a Viral Disease: Example of the COVID-19 Outbreak
The end of the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic is near in some countries as declared by World Health Organization (WHO) in January 2022 based on some studies in Europe and South Africa despite unequal distribution of vaccines to combat the disease spread globally. The heterogeneity in individua...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-04-01
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| Series: | Infectious Disease Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2036-7449/14/3/38 |
| _version_ | 1827660133908348928 |
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| author | Kayode Oshinubi Cécile Fougère Jacques Demongeot |
| author_facet | Kayode Oshinubi Cécile Fougère Jacques Demongeot |
| author_sort | Kayode Oshinubi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The end of the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic is near in some countries as declared by World Health Organization (WHO) in January 2022 based on some studies in Europe and South Africa despite unequal distribution of vaccines to combat the disease spread globally. The heterogeneity in individual age and the reaction to biological and environmental changes that has been observed in COVID-19 dynamics in terms of different reaction to vaccination by age group, severity of infection per age group, hospitalization and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) records show different patterns, and hence, it is important to improve mathematical models for COVID-19 pandemic prediction to account for different proportions of ages in the population, which is a major factor in epidemic history. We aim in this paper to estimate, using the Usher model, the lifespan loss due to viral infection and ageing which could result in pathological events such as infectious diseases. Exploiting epidemiology and demographic data firstly from Cameroon and then from some other countries, we described the ageing in the COVID-19 outbreak in human populations and performed a graphical representation of the proportion of sensitivity of some of the model parameters which we varied. The result shows a coherence between the orders of magnitude of the calculated and observed incidence numbers during the epidemic wave, which constitutes a semi-quantitative validation of the mathematical modelling approach at the population level. To conclude, the age heterogeneity of the populations involved in the COVID-19 outbreak needs the consideration of models in age groups with specific susceptibilities to infection. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T23:37:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3e1fbc5e3ecf4b9c8ca25f785ce31e43 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2036-7449 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T23:37:48Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Disease Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-3e1fbc5e3ecf4b9c8ca25f785ce31e432023-11-23T16:56:48ZengMDPI AGInfectious Disease Reports2036-74492022-04-0114332134010.3390/idr14030038A Model for the Lifespan Loss Due to a Viral Disease: Example of the COVID-19 OutbreakKayode Oshinubi0Cécile Fougère1Jacques Demongeot2Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, FranceLaboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, FranceLaboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, FranceThe end of the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic is near in some countries as declared by World Health Organization (WHO) in January 2022 based on some studies in Europe and South Africa despite unequal distribution of vaccines to combat the disease spread globally. The heterogeneity in individual age and the reaction to biological and environmental changes that has been observed in COVID-19 dynamics in terms of different reaction to vaccination by age group, severity of infection per age group, hospitalization and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) records show different patterns, and hence, it is important to improve mathematical models for COVID-19 pandemic prediction to account for different proportions of ages in the population, which is a major factor in epidemic history. We aim in this paper to estimate, using the Usher model, the lifespan loss due to viral infection and ageing which could result in pathological events such as infectious diseases. Exploiting epidemiology and demographic data firstly from Cameroon and then from some other countries, we described the ageing in the COVID-19 outbreak in human populations and performed a graphical representation of the proportion of sensitivity of some of the model parameters which we varied. The result shows a coherence between the orders of magnitude of the calculated and observed incidence numbers during the epidemic wave, which constitutes a semi-quantitative validation of the mathematical modelling approach at the population level. To conclude, the age heterogeneity of the populations involved in the COVID-19 outbreak needs the consideration of models in age groups with specific susceptibilities to infection.https://www.mdpi.com/2036-7449/14/3/38COVID-19ageing caused by viral diseasebiological agecomorbidities |
| spellingShingle | Kayode Oshinubi Cécile Fougère Jacques Demongeot A Model for the Lifespan Loss Due to a Viral Disease: Example of the COVID-19 Outbreak Infectious Disease Reports COVID-19 ageing caused by viral disease biological age comorbidities |
| title | A Model for the Lifespan Loss Due to a Viral Disease: Example of the COVID-19 Outbreak |
| title_full | A Model for the Lifespan Loss Due to a Viral Disease: Example of the COVID-19 Outbreak |
| title_fullStr | A Model for the Lifespan Loss Due to a Viral Disease: Example of the COVID-19 Outbreak |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Model for the Lifespan Loss Due to a Viral Disease: Example of the COVID-19 Outbreak |
| title_short | A Model for the Lifespan Loss Due to a Viral Disease: Example of the COVID-19 Outbreak |
| title_sort | model for the lifespan loss due to a viral disease example of the covid 19 outbreak |
| topic | COVID-19 ageing caused by viral disease biological age comorbidities |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2036-7449/14/3/38 |
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