Forecasts of Opportunity for Northern California Soil Moisture
Soil moisture anomalies underpin a number of critical hydrological phenomena with socioeconomic consequences, yet systematic studies of soil moisture predictability are limited. Here, we use a data-adaptive technique, Linear Inverse Modeling, which has proved useful as an indication of predictabilit...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2021-07-01
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| Series: | Land |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/7/713 |
| _version_ | 1797526778385793024 |
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| author | Cécile Penland Megan D. Fowler Darren L. Jackson Robert Cifelli |
| author_facet | Cécile Penland Megan D. Fowler Darren L. Jackson Robert Cifelli |
| author_sort | Cécile Penland |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Soil moisture anomalies underpin a number of critical hydrological phenomena with socioeconomic consequences, yet systematic studies of soil moisture predictability are limited. Here, we use a data-adaptive technique, Linear Inverse Modeling, which has proved useful as an indication of predictability in other fields, to investigate the predictability of soil moisture in northern California. This approach yields a model of soil moisture at 10 stations in the region, with results that indicate the possibility of skillful forecasts at each for lead times of 1–2 weeks. An important advantage of this model is the a priori identification of forecasts of opportunity—conditions under which the model’s forecasts may be expected to have particularly high skill. Given that forecast errors (and inversely, their skill) can be estimated in advance, these findings have the potential to greatly increase the utility of soil moisture forecasts for practical applications including drought and flood forecasting. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T09:34:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3e72a0a2d3ba46cbac91bf0eb52958b5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-445X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T09:34:12Z |
| publishDate | 2021-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Land |
| spelling | doaj.art-3e72a0a2d3ba46cbac91bf0eb52958b52023-11-22T04:11:36ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2021-07-0110771310.3390/land10070713 Forecasts of Opportunity for Northern California Soil MoistureCécile Penland0Megan D. Fowler1Darren L. Jackson2Robert Cifelli3NOAA ESRL/Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USANOAA ESRL/Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USANOAA ESRL/Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USANOAA ESRL/Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USASoil moisture anomalies underpin a number of critical hydrological phenomena with socioeconomic consequences, yet systematic studies of soil moisture predictability are limited. Here, we use a data-adaptive technique, Linear Inverse Modeling, which has proved useful as an indication of predictability in other fields, to investigate the predictability of soil moisture in northern California. This approach yields a model of soil moisture at 10 stations in the region, with results that indicate the possibility of skillful forecasts at each for lead times of 1–2 weeks. An important advantage of this model is the a priori identification of forecasts of opportunity—conditions under which the model’s forecasts may be expected to have particularly high skill. Given that forecast errors (and inversely, their skill) can be estimated in advance, these findings have the potential to greatly increase the utility of soil moisture forecasts for practical applications including drought and flood forecasting.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/7/713soil moisturepredictabilityforecasts of opportunitylinear inverse modelingCalifornia hydrology |
| spellingShingle | Cécile Penland Megan D. Fowler Darren L. Jackson Robert Cifelli Forecasts of Opportunity for Northern California Soil Moisture Land soil moisture predictability forecasts of opportunity linear inverse modeling California hydrology |
| title | Forecasts of Opportunity for Northern California Soil Moisture |
| title_full | Forecasts of Opportunity for Northern California Soil Moisture |
| title_fullStr | Forecasts of Opportunity for Northern California Soil Moisture |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasts of Opportunity for Northern California Soil Moisture |
| title_short | Forecasts of Opportunity for Northern California Soil Moisture |
| title_sort | forecasts of opportunity for northern california soil moisture |
| topic | soil moisture predictability forecasts of opportunity linear inverse modeling California hydrology |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/7/713 |
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