Development and validation of the nomogram to predict the risk of hospital drug shortages: A prediction model.
<h4>Introduction</h4>Reasons for drug shortages are multi-factorial, and patients are greatly injured. So we needed to reduce the frequency and risk of drug shortages in hospitals. At present, the risk of drug shortages in medical institutions rarely used prediction models. To this end,...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2023-01-01
|
| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0284528 |
| _version_ | 1797839104160825344 |
|---|---|
| author | Jie Dong Yang Gao Yi Liu Xiuling Yang |
| author_facet | Jie Dong Yang Gao Yi Liu Xiuling Yang |
| author_sort | Jie Dong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Introduction</h4>Reasons for drug shortages are multi-factorial, and patients are greatly injured. So we needed to reduce the frequency and risk of drug shortages in hospitals. At present, the risk of drug shortages in medical institutions rarely used prediction models. To this end, we attempted to proactively predict the risk of drug shortages in hospital drug procurement to make further decisions or implement interventions.<h4>Objectives</h4>The aim of this study is to establish a nomogram to show the risk of drug shortages.<h4>Methods</h4>We collated data obtained using the centralized procurement platform of Hebei Province and defined independent and dependent variables to be included in the model. The data were divided into a training set and a validation set according to 7:3. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine independent risk factors, and discrimination (using the receiver operating characteristic curve), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test), and decision curve analysis were validated.<h4>Results</h4>As a result, volume-based procurement, therapeutic class, dosage form, distribution firm, take orders, order date, and unit price were regarded as independent risk factors for drug shortages. In the training (AUC = 0.707) and validation (AUC = 0.688) sets, the nomogram exhibited a sufficient level of discrimination.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The model can predict the risk of drug shortages in the hospital drug purchase process. The application of this model will help optimize the management of drug shortages in hospitals. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T15:52:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3e7cf5f57bfa4240b01a6521f38c16c7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T15:52:50Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-3e7cf5f57bfa4240b01a6521f38c16c72023-04-26T05:31:44ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032023-01-01184e028452810.1371/journal.pone.0284528Development and validation of the nomogram to predict the risk of hospital drug shortages: A prediction model.Jie DongYang GaoYi LiuXiuling Yang<h4>Introduction</h4>Reasons for drug shortages are multi-factorial, and patients are greatly injured. So we needed to reduce the frequency and risk of drug shortages in hospitals. At present, the risk of drug shortages in medical institutions rarely used prediction models. To this end, we attempted to proactively predict the risk of drug shortages in hospital drug procurement to make further decisions or implement interventions.<h4>Objectives</h4>The aim of this study is to establish a nomogram to show the risk of drug shortages.<h4>Methods</h4>We collated data obtained using the centralized procurement platform of Hebei Province and defined independent and dependent variables to be included in the model. The data were divided into a training set and a validation set according to 7:3. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine independent risk factors, and discrimination (using the receiver operating characteristic curve), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test), and decision curve analysis were validated.<h4>Results</h4>As a result, volume-based procurement, therapeutic class, dosage form, distribution firm, take orders, order date, and unit price were regarded as independent risk factors for drug shortages. In the training (AUC = 0.707) and validation (AUC = 0.688) sets, the nomogram exhibited a sufficient level of discrimination.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The model can predict the risk of drug shortages in the hospital drug purchase process. The application of this model will help optimize the management of drug shortages in hospitals.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0284528 |
| spellingShingle | Jie Dong Yang Gao Yi Liu Xiuling Yang Development and validation of the nomogram to predict the risk of hospital drug shortages: A prediction model. PLoS ONE |
| title | Development and validation of the nomogram to predict the risk of hospital drug shortages: A prediction model. |
| title_full | Development and validation of the nomogram to predict the risk of hospital drug shortages: A prediction model. |
| title_fullStr | Development and validation of the nomogram to predict the risk of hospital drug shortages: A prediction model. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of the nomogram to predict the risk of hospital drug shortages: A prediction model. |
| title_short | Development and validation of the nomogram to predict the risk of hospital drug shortages: A prediction model. |
| title_sort | development and validation of the nomogram to predict the risk of hospital drug shortages a prediction model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0284528 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jiedong developmentandvalidationofthenomogramtopredicttheriskofhospitaldrugshortagesapredictionmodel AT yanggao developmentandvalidationofthenomogramtopredicttheriskofhospitaldrugshortagesapredictionmodel AT yiliu developmentandvalidationofthenomogramtopredicttheriskofhospitaldrugshortagesapredictionmodel AT xiulingyang developmentandvalidationofthenomogramtopredicttheriskofhospitaldrugshortagesapredictionmodel |