A Bayesian Analysis of Technological Intelligence in Land and Oceans
Current research indicates that (sub)surface ocean worlds essentially devoid of subaerial landmasses (e.g., continents) are common in the Milky Way and that these worlds could host habitable conditions, thence raising the possibility that life and technological intelligence (TI) may arise in such aq...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | The Astrophysical Journal |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/acb6fa |
| _version_ | 1797701451982569472 |
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| author | Manasvi Lingam Amedeo Balbi Swadesh M. Mahajan |
| author_facet | Manasvi Lingam Amedeo Balbi Swadesh M. Mahajan |
| author_sort | Manasvi Lingam |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Current research indicates that (sub)surface ocean worlds essentially devoid of subaerial landmasses (e.g., continents) are common in the Milky Way and that these worlds could host habitable conditions, thence raising the possibility that life and technological intelligence (TI) may arise in such aquatic settings. It is known, however, that TI on Earth (i.e., humans) arose on land. Motivated by these considerations, we present a Bayesian framework to assess the prospects for the emergence of TIs in land- and ocean-based habitats (LBHs and OBHs). If all factors are equally conducive for TIs to arise in LBHs and OBHs, we demonstrate that the evolution of TIs in LBHs (which includes humans) might have very low odds of roughly 1 in 10 ^3 to 1 in 10 ^4 , thus outwardly contradicting the Copernican principle. Hence, we elucidate three avenues whereby the Copernican principle can be preserved: (i) the emergence rate of TIs is much lower in OBHs, (ii) the habitability interval for TIs is much shorter in OBHs, and (iii) only a small fraction of worlds with OBHs comprise appropriate conditions for effectuating TIs. We also briefly discuss methods for empirically falsifying our predictions and comment on the feasibility of supporting TIs in aerial environments. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T04:35:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3ec8cafa645644ee8472d46d781df295 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1538-4357 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T04:35:53Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Astrophysical Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-3ec8cafa645644ee8472d46d781df2952023-09-03T09:55:20ZengIOP PublishingThe Astrophysical Journal1538-43572023-01-0194512310.3847/1538-4357/acb6faA Bayesian Analysis of Technological Intelligence in Land and OceansManasvi Lingam0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2685-9417Amedeo Balbi1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3929-6932Swadesh M. Mahajan2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2415-4840Department of Aerospace, Physics and Space Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology , Melbourne, FL 32901, USA ; mlingam@fit.edu; Department of Physics and Institute for Fusion Studies, The University of Texas at Austin , Austin, TX 78712, USADipartimento di Fisica, Università di Roma “Tor Vergata” , I-00133 Roma, ItalyDepartment of Physics and Institute for Fusion Studies, The University of Texas at Austin , Austin, TX 78712, USA; Department of Physics, School of Natural Sciences, Shiv Nadar University , Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, 201314, IndiaCurrent research indicates that (sub)surface ocean worlds essentially devoid of subaerial landmasses (e.g., continents) are common in the Milky Way and that these worlds could host habitable conditions, thence raising the possibility that life and technological intelligence (TI) may arise in such aquatic settings. It is known, however, that TI on Earth (i.e., humans) arose on land. Motivated by these considerations, we present a Bayesian framework to assess the prospects for the emergence of TIs in land- and ocean-based habitats (LBHs and OBHs). If all factors are equally conducive for TIs to arise in LBHs and OBHs, we demonstrate that the evolution of TIs in LBHs (which includes humans) might have very low odds of roughly 1 in 10 ^3 to 1 in 10 ^4 , thus outwardly contradicting the Copernican principle. Hence, we elucidate three avenues whereby the Copernican principle can be preserved: (i) the emergence rate of TIs is much lower in OBHs, (ii) the habitability interval for TIs is much shorter in OBHs, and (iii) only a small fraction of worlds with OBHs comprise appropriate conditions for effectuating TIs. We also briefly discuss methods for empirically falsifying our predictions and comment on the feasibility of supporting TIs in aerial environments.https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/acb6faOcean planetsExoplanet surfacesAstrobiologyTechnosignaturesSearch for extraterrestrial intelligenceBayesian statistics |
| spellingShingle | Manasvi Lingam Amedeo Balbi Swadesh M. Mahajan A Bayesian Analysis of Technological Intelligence in Land and Oceans The Astrophysical Journal Ocean planets Exoplanet surfaces Astrobiology Technosignatures Search for extraterrestrial intelligence Bayesian statistics |
| title | A Bayesian Analysis of Technological Intelligence in Land and Oceans |
| title_full | A Bayesian Analysis of Technological Intelligence in Land and Oceans |
| title_fullStr | A Bayesian Analysis of Technological Intelligence in Land and Oceans |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Bayesian Analysis of Technological Intelligence in Land and Oceans |
| title_short | A Bayesian Analysis of Technological Intelligence in Land and Oceans |
| title_sort | bayesian analysis of technological intelligence in land and oceans |
| topic | Ocean planets Exoplanet surfaces Astrobiology Technosignatures Search for extraterrestrial intelligence Bayesian statistics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/acb6fa |
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