Significant human health co-benefits of mitigating African emissions
<p>Future African aerosol emissions, and therefore air pollution levels and health outcomes, are uncertain and understudied. Understanding the future health impacts of pollutant emissions from this region is crucial. Here, this research gap is addressed by studying the range in the future heal...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/24/1025/2024/acp-24-1025-2024.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797347675124793344 |
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| author | C. D. Wells C. D. Wells M. Kasoar M. Ezzati M. Ezzati M. Ezzati A. Voulgarakis A. Voulgarakis |
| author_facet | C. D. Wells C. D. Wells M. Kasoar M. Ezzati M. Ezzati M. Ezzati A. Voulgarakis A. Voulgarakis |
| author_sort | C. D. Wells |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Future African aerosol emissions, and therefore air pollution levels and health outcomes, are uncertain and understudied. Understanding the future health impacts of pollutant emissions from this region is crucial. Here, this research gap is addressed by studying the range in the future health impacts of aerosol emissions from Africa in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, using the UK Earth System Model version 1 (UKESM1), along with human health concentration–response functions. The effects of Africa following a high-pollution aerosol pathway are studied relative to a low-pollution control, with experiments varying aerosol emissions from industry and biomass burning. Using present-day demographics, annual deaths within Africa attributable to ambient particulate matter are estimated to be lower by 150 000 (5th–95th confidence interval of 67 000–234 000) under stronger African aerosol mitigation by 2090, while those attributable to O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> are lower by 15 000 (5th–95th confidence interval of 9000–21 000). The particulate matter health benefits are realised predominantly within Africa, with the O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span>-driven benefits being more widespread – though still concentrated in Africa – due to the longer atmospheric lifetime of O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span>. These results demonstrate the important health co-benefits from future emission mitigation in Africa.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T11:52:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3f1fcfdeb1e54ca9a5d27cef162d9d6a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T11:52:11Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-3f1fcfdeb1e54ca9a5d27cef162d9d6a2024-01-24T06:39:18ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242024-01-01241025103910.5194/acp-24-1025-2024Significant human health co-benefits of mitigating African emissionsC. D. Wells0C. D. Wells1M. Kasoar2M. Ezzati3M. Ezzati4M. Ezzati5A. Voulgarakis6A. Voulgarakis7The Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UKSchool of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UKLeverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society, Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UKDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UKMRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UKRegional Institute for Population Studies, University of Ghana, Accra, GhanaLeverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society, Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UKSchool of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece<p>Future African aerosol emissions, and therefore air pollution levels and health outcomes, are uncertain and understudied. Understanding the future health impacts of pollutant emissions from this region is crucial. Here, this research gap is addressed by studying the range in the future health impacts of aerosol emissions from Africa in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, using the UK Earth System Model version 1 (UKESM1), along with human health concentration–response functions. The effects of Africa following a high-pollution aerosol pathway are studied relative to a low-pollution control, with experiments varying aerosol emissions from industry and biomass burning. Using present-day demographics, annual deaths within Africa attributable to ambient particulate matter are estimated to be lower by 150 000 (5th–95th confidence interval of 67 000–234 000) under stronger African aerosol mitigation by 2090, while those attributable to O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> are lower by 15 000 (5th–95th confidence interval of 9000–21 000). The particulate matter health benefits are realised predominantly within Africa, with the O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span>-driven benefits being more widespread – though still concentrated in Africa – due to the longer atmospheric lifetime of O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span>. These results demonstrate the important health co-benefits from future emission mitigation in Africa.</p>https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/24/1025/2024/acp-24-1025-2024.pdf |
| spellingShingle | C. D. Wells C. D. Wells M. Kasoar M. Ezzati M. Ezzati M. Ezzati A. Voulgarakis A. Voulgarakis Significant human health co-benefits of mitigating African emissions Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Significant human health co-benefits of mitigating African emissions |
| title_full | Significant human health co-benefits of mitigating African emissions |
| title_fullStr | Significant human health co-benefits of mitigating African emissions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Significant human health co-benefits of mitigating African emissions |
| title_short | Significant human health co-benefits of mitigating African emissions |
| title_sort | significant human health co benefits of mitigating african emissions |
| url | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/24/1025/2024/acp-24-1025-2024.pdf |
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