Value of baseline characteristics in the risk prediction of atrial fibrillation
IntroductionAtrial fibrillation (AF) is prone to heart failure and stroke. Early management can effectively reduce the stroke rate and mortality. Current clinical guidelines screen high-risk individuals based solely on age, while this study aims to explore the possibility of other AF risk predictors...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-02-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2023.1068562/full |
| _version_ | 1797937955113795584 |
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| author | Jiacheng He Sen Liu Cuiwei Yang Cuiwei Yang Yong Wei |
| author_facet | Jiacheng He Sen Liu Cuiwei Yang Cuiwei Yang Yong Wei |
| author_sort | Jiacheng He |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | IntroductionAtrial fibrillation (AF) is prone to heart failure and stroke. Early management can effectively reduce the stroke rate and mortality. Current clinical guidelines screen high-risk individuals based solely on age, while this study aims to explore the possibility of other AF risk predictors.MethodsA total of 18,738 elderly people (aged over 60 years old) in Chinese communities were enrolled in this study. The baseline characteristics were mainly based on the diagnosis results of electrocardiogram (ECG) machine during follow up, accompanied by some auxiliary physical examination basic data. After the analysis of both independent and combined baseline characteristics, AF risk predictors were obtained and prioritized according to the results. Independent characteristics were studied from three aspects: Chi-square test, Mann–Whitney U test and Cox univariate regression analysis. Combined characteristics were studied from two aspects: machine learning models and Cox multivariate regression analysis, and the former was combined with recursive feature elimination method and voting decision.ResultsThe resulted optimal combination of risk predictors included age, atrial premature beats, atrial flutter, left ventricular hypertrophy, hypertension and heart disease.ConclusionPatients diagnosed by short-time ECG machines with the occurrence of the above events had a higher probability of AF episodes, who are suggested to be included in the focus of long-term ECG monitoring or increased screening density. The incidence of risk predictors in different age ranges of AF patients suggests differences in age-specific patient management. This can help improve the detection rate of AF, standardize the management of patients, and slow down the progression of AF. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T18:53:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3f20a154d4d24f23aebb8ef4af896e80 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2297-055X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T18:53:28Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-3f20a154d4d24f23aebb8ef4af896e802023-02-01T04:54:31ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine2297-055X2023-02-011010.3389/fcvm.2023.10685621068562Value of baseline characteristics in the risk prediction of atrial fibrillationJiacheng He0Sen Liu1Cuiwei Yang2Cuiwei Yang3Yong Wei4Center for Biomedical Engineering, School of Information Science and Technology, Fudan University, Shanghai, ChinaCenter for Biomedical Engineering, School of Information Science and Technology, Fudan University, Shanghai, ChinaCenter for Biomedical Engineering, School of Information Science and Technology, Fudan University, Shanghai, ChinaKey Laboratory of Medical Imaging Computing and Computer Assisted Intervention of Shanghai, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaIntroductionAtrial fibrillation (AF) is prone to heart failure and stroke. Early management can effectively reduce the stroke rate and mortality. Current clinical guidelines screen high-risk individuals based solely on age, while this study aims to explore the possibility of other AF risk predictors.MethodsA total of 18,738 elderly people (aged over 60 years old) in Chinese communities were enrolled in this study. The baseline characteristics were mainly based on the diagnosis results of electrocardiogram (ECG) machine during follow up, accompanied by some auxiliary physical examination basic data. After the analysis of both independent and combined baseline characteristics, AF risk predictors were obtained and prioritized according to the results. Independent characteristics were studied from three aspects: Chi-square test, Mann–Whitney U test and Cox univariate regression analysis. Combined characteristics were studied from two aspects: machine learning models and Cox multivariate regression analysis, and the former was combined with recursive feature elimination method and voting decision.ResultsThe resulted optimal combination of risk predictors included age, atrial premature beats, atrial flutter, left ventricular hypertrophy, hypertension and heart disease.ConclusionPatients diagnosed by short-time ECG machines with the occurrence of the above events had a higher probability of AF episodes, who are suggested to be included in the focus of long-term ECG monitoring or increased screening density. The incidence of risk predictors in different age ranges of AF patients suggests differences in age-specific patient management. This can help improve the detection rate of AF, standardize the management of patients, and slow down the progression of AF.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2023.1068562/fullatrial fibrillationstatistical testbaseline characteristicsrisk predictionelectrocardiogram machine |
| spellingShingle | Jiacheng He Sen Liu Cuiwei Yang Cuiwei Yang Yong Wei Value of baseline characteristics in the risk prediction of atrial fibrillation Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine atrial fibrillation statistical test baseline characteristics risk prediction electrocardiogram machine |
| title | Value of baseline characteristics in the risk prediction of atrial fibrillation |
| title_full | Value of baseline characteristics in the risk prediction of atrial fibrillation |
| title_fullStr | Value of baseline characteristics in the risk prediction of atrial fibrillation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Value of baseline characteristics in the risk prediction of atrial fibrillation |
| title_short | Value of baseline characteristics in the risk prediction of atrial fibrillation |
| title_sort | value of baseline characteristics in the risk prediction of atrial fibrillation |
| topic | atrial fibrillation statistical test baseline characteristics risk prediction electrocardiogram machine |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2023.1068562/full |
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