Non-uniform changes of daily precipitation in China: Observations and simulations
Daily precipitation of different intensities is expected to change differently in response to global warming. Based on station observations and simulations from the latest climate models, we investigated the non-uniform features of changes in daily precipitation frequency, intensity and amount over...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2024-06-01
|
| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000264 |
| _version_ | 1797221754533314560 |
|---|---|
| author | Jianyu Wang Panmao Zhai Chao Li |
| author_facet | Jianyu Wang Panmao Zhai Chao Li |
| author_sort | Jianyu Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Daily precipitation of different intensities is expected to change differently in response to global warming. Based on station observations and simulations from the latest climate models, we investigated the non-uniform features of changes in daily precipitation frequency, intensity and amount over China. Results show that western China experiences an overall wetting trend across the spectrum of precipitation intensity, while eastern China exhibits negative trends in light-to-moderate precipitation and positive trends in heavy-to-extreme precipitation with respect to precipitation frequency and amount. Changes in precipitation intensity do not show a spatially consistent pattern of intensification in most intensity spectra, but exhibit the most pronounced intensification in heavy-to-extreme precipitation. Interestingly, changes in precipitation frequency dominate changes in the amount of precipitation for each intensity level, particularly for the spatial patterns. Although climate models show limited skills in reproducing the magnitudes of these observed changes, they show skills in simulating the sign of the changes. Also, they reasonably reproduce the observed non-uniform patterns of daily precipitation changes, especially for changes in the contributions from different intensity levels to annual total precipitation on average over the whole country. The evaluation of current climate models in simulating daily precipitation changes as a function of precipitation intensity suggests that improvement in the detection and attribution of precipitation changes in China can be gained by dividing daily precipitation into different categories. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T13:10:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3f527c0b148841be8f5c7f87060543d6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T13:10:28Z |
| publishDate | 2024-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj.art-3f527c0b148841be8f5c7f87060543d62024-04-05T04:40:33ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472024-06-0144100665Non-uniform changes of daily precipitation in China: Observations and simulationsJianyu Wang0Panmao Zhai1Chao Li2State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Corresponding author. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China.Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China; School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, ChinaDaily precipitation of different intensities is expected to change differently in response to global warming. Based on station observations and simulations from the latest climate models, we investigated the non-uniform features of changes in daily precipitation frequency, intensity and amount over China. Results show that western China experiences an overall wetting trend across the spectrum of precipitation intensity, while eastern China exhibits negative trends in light-to-moderate precipitation and positive trends in heavy-to-extreme precipitation with respect to precipitation frequency and amount. Changes in precipitation intensity do not show a spatially consistent pattern of intensification in most intensity spectra, but exhibit the most pronounced intensification in heavy-to-extreme precipitation. Interestingly, changes in precipitation frequency dominate changes in the amount of precipitation for each intensity level, particularly for the spatial patterns. Although climate models show limited skills in reproducing the magnitudes of these observed changes, they show skills in simulating the sign of the changes. Also, they reasonably reproduce the observed non-uniform patterns of daily precipitation changes, especially for changes in the contributions from different intensity levels to annual total precipitation on average over the whole country. The evaluation of current climate models in simulating daily precipitation changes as a function of precipitation intensity suggests that improvement in the detection and attribution of precipitation changes in China can be gained by dividing daily precipitation into different categories.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000264Daily precipitationNon-uniform changeClimate model verification |
| spellingShingle | Jianyu Wang Panmao Zhai Chao Li Non-uniform changes of daily precipitation in China: Observations and simulations Weather and Climate Extremes Daily precipitation Non-uniform change Climate model verification |
| title | Non-uniform changes of daily precipitation in China: Observations and simulations |
| title_full | Non-uniform changes of daily precipitation in China: Observations and simulations |
| title_fullStr | Non-uniform changes of daily precipitation in China: Observations and simulations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Non-uniform changes of daily precipitation in China: Observations and simulations |
| title_short | Non-uniform changes of daily precipitation in China: Observations and simulations |
| title_sort | non uniform changes of daily precipitation in china observations and simulations |
| topic | Daily precipitation Non-uniform change Climate model verification |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000264 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jianyuwang nonuniformchangesofdailyprecipitationinchinaobservationsandsimulations AT panmaozhai nonuniformchangesofdailyprecipitationinchinaobservationsandsimulations AT chaoli nonuniformchangesofdailyprecipitationinchinaobservationsandsimulations |