Mortality in Catalonia during the summer of 2022 and its relation with high temperatures and COVID-19 cases
PurposeTo analyse the association between the mortality during the summer 2022 and either high temperatures or the COVID-19 wave with data from the Catalan Health Care System (7.8 million people).MethodsWe performed a retrospective study using publicly available data of meteorological variables, inf...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1157363/full |
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| author | Ermengol Coma David Pino Núria Mora Francesc Fina Aida Perramon Clara Prats Manuel Medina Antoni Planella Anna Mompart Jacobo Mendioroz Carmen Cabezas |
| author_facet | Ermengol Coma David Pino Núria Mora Francesc Fina Aida Perramon Clara Prats Manuel Medina Antoni Planella Anna Mompart Jacobo Mendioroz Carmen Cabezas |
| author_sort | Ermengol Coma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | PurposeTo analyse the association between the mortality during the summer 2022 and either high temperatures or the COVID-19 wave with data from the Catalan Health Care System (7.8 million people).MethodsWe performed a retrospective study using publicly available data of meteorological variables, influenza-like illness (ILI) cases (including COVID-19) and deaths. The study comprises the summer months of the years 2021 and 2022. To compare the curves of mortality, ILI and temperature we calculated the z-score of each series. We assessed the observed lag between curves using the cross-correlation function. Finally, we calculated the correlation between the z-scores using the Pearson correlation coefficient (R2).ResultsDuring the study period, 33,967 deaths were reported in Catalonia (16,416 in the summer of 2021 and 17,551 in the summer of 2022). In 2022, the observed lag and the correlation between the z-scores of temperature and all-cause deaths was 3 days and R2 = 0.86, while between ILI and all-cause deaths was 22 days and R2 = 0.21. This high correlation between temperature and deaths increased up to 0.91 when we excluded those deaths reported as COVID-19 deaths, while the correlation between ILI and non-COVID-19 deaths decreased to −0.19. No correlation was observed between non-COVID deaths and temperature or ILI cases in 2021.ConclusionOur study suggests that the main cause of the increase in deaths during summer 2022 in Catalonia was the high temperatures and its duration. The contribution of the COVID-19 seems to be limited. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T10:26:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3f6def07462b4e8d839274044dfff1bf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T10:26:40Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-3f6def07462b4e8d839274044dfff1bf2023-05-19T05:48:56ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652023-05-011110.3389/fpubh.2023.11573631157363Mortality in Catalonia during the summer of 2022 and its relation with high temperatures and COVID-19 casesErmengol Coma0David Pino1Núria Mora2Francesc Fina3Aida Perramon4Clara Prats5Manuel Medina6Antoni Planella7Anna Mompart8Jacobo Mendioroz9Carmen Cabezas10Primary Care Services Information System (SISAP), Institut Català de la Salut (ICS), Barcelona, SpainDepartment of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, SpainPrimary Care Services Information System (SISAP), Institut Català de la Salut (ICS), Barcelona, SpainPrimary Care Services Information System (SISAP), Institut Català de la Salut (ICS), Barcelona, SpainDepartment of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, SpainDepartment of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, SpainPrimary Care Services Information System (SISAP), Institut Català de la Salut (ICS), Barcelona, SpainDepartment of Health, Generalitat de Catalunya, Direcció General de Planificació i Recerca en Salut, Barcelona, SpainDepartment of Health, Generalitat de Catalunya, Direcció General de Planificació i Recerca en Salut, Barcelona, SpainDepartment of Health, Public Health Secretariat, Generalitat de Catalunya, Barcelona, SpainDepartment of Health, Public Health Secretariat, Generalitat de Catalunya, Barcelona, SpainPurposeTo analyse the association between the mortality during the summer 2022 and either high temperatures or the COVID-19 wave with data from the Catalan Health Care System (7.8 million people).MethodsWe performed a retrospective study using publicly available data of meteorological variables, influenza-like illness (ILI) cases (including COVID-19) and deaths. The study comprises the summer months of the years 2021 and 2022. To compare the curves of mortality, ILI and temperature we calculated the z-score of each series. We assessed the observed lag between curves using the cross-correlation function. Finally, we calculated the correlation between the z-scores using the Pearson correlation coefficient (R2).ResultsDuring the study period, 33,967 deaths were reported in Catalonia (16,416 in the summer of 2021 and 17,551 in the summer of 2022). In 2022, the observed lag and the correlation between the z-scores of temperature and all-cause deaths was 3 days and R2 = 0.86, while between ILI and all-cause deaths was 22 days and R2 = 0.21. This high correlation between temperature and deaths increased up to 0.91 when we excluded those deaths reported as COVID-19 deaths, while the correlation between ILI and non-COVID-19 deaths decreased to −0.19. No correlation was observed between non-COVID deaths and temperature or ILI cases in 2021.ConclusionOur study suggests that the main cause of the increase in deaths during summer 2022 in Catalonia was the high temperatures and its duration. The contribution of the COVID-19 seems to be limited.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1157363/fullmortalityCOVID-19influenza-like illness-ILIheathot temperature |
| spellingShingle | Ermengol Coma David Pino Núria Mora Francesc Fina Aida Perramon Clara Prats Manuel Medina Antoni Planella Anna Mompart Jacobo Mendioroz Carmen Cabezas Mortality in Catalonia during the summer of 2022 and its relation with high temperatures and COVID-19 cases Frontiers in Public Health mortality COVID-19 influenza-like illness-ILI heat hot temperature |
| title | Mortality in Catalonia during the summer of 2022 and its relation with high temperatures and COVID-19 cases |
| title_full | Mortality in Catalonia during the summer of 2022 and its relation with high temperatures and COVID-19 cases |
| title_fullStr | Mortality in Catalonia during the summer of 2022 and its relation with high temperatures and COVID-19 cases |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mortality in Catalonia during the summer of 2022 and its relation with high temperatures and COVID-19 cases |
| title_short | Mortality in Catalonia during the summer of 2022 and its relation with high temperatures and COVID-19 cases |
| title_sort | mortality in catalonia during the summer of 2022 and its relation with high temperatures and covid 19 cases |
| topic | mortality COVID-19 influenza-like illness-ILI heat hot temperature |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1157363/full |
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