China’s Slowdown
This paper evaluates explanations for China’s growth slowdown. The natural tendency for rapidly growing economies to slow down is a major factor, along with problems bequeathed by unbalanced growth, including a declining ICOR, slowing total factor productivity growth, and rising indebtedness. A numb...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Korea Development Institute
2024-02-01
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| Series: | KDI Journal of Economic Policy |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://kdijep.org/v.46/1/1/China%E2%80%99s+Slowdown |
| _version_ | 1797261899508744192 |
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| author | BARRY EICHENGREEN |
| author_facet | BARRY EICHENGREEN |
| author_sort | BARRY EICHENGREEN |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper evaluates explanations for China’s growth slowdown. The natural tendency for rapidly growing economies to slow down is a major factor, along with problems bequeathed by unbalanced growth, including a declining ICOR, slowing total factor productivity growth, and rising indebtedness. A number of other mechanisms are of lesser importance: demographics, President Xi’s centralization of political power and anti-corruption campaign, and U.S. export controls. Sustaining growth in the longer term will require China to step away from investment, debt and export-fueled growth in favor of a balanced growth model with household consumption playing a larger role. Doing so will require hardening of the budget constraints of regional and local governments and restructuring of the nonperforming debts of property and construction companies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T23:48:33Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3f71ccb3d4d4420bb4a5e0b57a3193f9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2586-2995 2586-4130 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T23:48:33Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | Korea Development Institute |
| record_format | Article |
| series | KDI Journal of Economic Policy |
| spelling | doaj.art-3f71ccb3d4d4420bb4a5e0b57a3193f92024-03-15T01:17:29ZengKorea Development InstituteKDI Journal of Economic Policy2586-29952586-41302024-02-0146111910.23895/kdijep.2024.46.1.1China’s SlowdownBARRY EICHENGREEN0Professor, Department of Economics, UC BerkeleyThis paper evaluates explanations for China’s growth slowdown. The natural tendency for rapidly growing economies to slow down is a major factor, along with problems bequeathed by unbalanced growth, including a declining ICOR, slowing total factor productivity growth, and rising indebtedness. A number of other mechanisms are of lesser importance: demographics, President Xi’s centralization of political power and anti-corruption campaign, and U.S. export controls. Sustaining growth in the longer term will require China to step away from investment, debt and export-fueled growth in favor of a balanced growth model with household consumption playing a larger role. Doing so will require hardening of the budget constraints of regional and local governments and restructuring of the nonperforming debts of property and construction companies.https://kdijep.org/v.46/1/1/China%E2%80%99s+Slowdownchinagrowth slowdownseconomic growthdebt |
| spellingShingle | BARRY EICHENGREEN China’s Slowdown KDI Journal of Economic Policy china growth slowdowns economic growth debt |
| title | China’s Slowdown |
| title_full | China’s Slowdown |
| title_fullStr | China’s Slowdown |
| title_full_unstemmed | China’s Slowdown |
| title_short | China’s Slowdown |
| title_sort | china s slowdown |
| topic | china growth slowdowns economic growth debt |
| url | https://kdijep.org/v.46/1/1/China%E2%80%99s+Slowdown |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT barryeichengreen chinasslowdown |